According to Thomas Kuhn, the growth of science depends not only on the linear progression of knowledge creation but also on scientific revolutions, which he called paradigm shifts (The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, 1962), a complete change of the foundation of a certain science.
Where do we have to expect the next breakthroughs in science? To which scientific fields Nobel Prizes will be given in the future and why?
Dear Hassan Izzeddin Sarsak, thanks for the article by Tony Rey. It appeared in 2010 in Harvard Business Review and it is about machine learning (powerful computers) and data-mining technology, data-intensive scientific discovery, as fourth scientific paradigm. We are in the midst of it. Deep learning, Artificial Intelligence and Augmented Reality can be added. Do you think that the new scientific breakthroughs will come from here and that the next Nobel Prizes will go to scientists in these fields?
Digitalization of the modern world suggests that the next scientific revolution will be associated with the creation of artificial intelligence.
Dear Rudi Darson
I think that the new technological tendency which known as Industry 4.0 is the beginning of a new revolution, as Industry 4.0 refers to the rise of new digital industrial technology. It is a transformation that makes possibility to gather and analyse data across machines, enabling faster, more flexible, and more efficient processes to produce higher-quality goods at reduced costs. This revolution will increase productivity, shift economics, enhance industrial progress, and modify the profile of the workforce—ultimately changing the competitiveness of companies and regions.
The Kuhn thing is about evolving dominant and accepted views in a certain discipline, i.e. scientific group think, e.g. science is as much about ignorance as about breakthroughs. https://www.researchgate.net/project/EXPONENTIAL-KNOWLEDGE-AUTOMATION is the real tech-know-logical revolution; as exponentialty is unstable, singularity seems to be the the final result.This type of AI can create the circular economy, which would replace the linear economy. I do not think that such processes need the approval of a Nobel committee or any other scientific bureaucracy; they simply just happen as revolutions do.
Will there be a breakthrough in mathematics? Will these problems be solved: Riemann hypothesis, Poincaré conjecture, Hodge conjecture, Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, solution of the Navier-Stokes equations, formulation of Yang-Mills theory, and whether NP-problems are actually P-problems?
Dear Stephen I. Ternyik, can you explain how exponential knowledge automation will replace the linear economy and how that will be a revolution?
It is an intelligent question meanwhile it is so hard. I think the digital information is streaming in from all sorts of sensors, instruments, and simulations, overwhelming our capacity to organize, analyze, and store it. Moore’s Law has for decades accurately predicted that the number of transistors that could be placed on an integrated circuit would double every two years, and until recently, this decrease in transistor size was accompanied by increased microprocessor performance. To increase performance today, we must program multiple processors on multi-core chips and exploit parallelism. Cause I think this question is very important for all the scientists in their different fields. I believe that we need a hand for all of them. Pls, I will share it to get more benefices and different ideas.
Dear Hein Retter, apart from the disasters, where do you think the scientific revolutions will come from? Or do expect no scientific revolutions at all?
https://www.researchgate.net/project/EXPONENTIAL-KNOWLEDGE-AUTOMATION/update/5d5fcefecfe4a7968dc37f1d
The best is to study this report from the EllenMcArthur Foundation, dear Rudi.
As exponentiality is an unstable function, I do expect singularity (in the sense of JvNeumann; http://www.singularitysymposium.com/definition-of-singularity.html ). The https://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/circular-economy/concept as such is a revolutionary process of the human production forces, which requires
scientific moderation. Such responses do usually happen with a considerable time-lag, but are in the making, according to the Kuhnian model of matrix change, i.e. tectonic shift from the periphery into the centre, like an earthquake.
We have been having a big revolution after the implementation of “Artificial Intelligence (AI) in every single sector should right now . We have to calculate and take on board relentlessly the “safeguarding and Q&A “ issues as well otherwise we will face a big disaster mankind never ever had before....
i believe it a friend than foe in Radiology( Pakdemirli E. Acta Radiologica Open 2019; 8(2) 1-5. ) but I am sharing the similar feelings and thoughts -apart from medical usage of AI- with Stephen Hawkins ( you can watch it you tube: “ Stephen Hawking: “AI could spell end of the human race” and Elon Musk ( you tube radio interview Joe Rogan- Elon Musk on AI) too in terms of widescale using of AI, like potancially creating “Robocop like rebel terminators and many more..
It is impossible to predict where the scientific revolution is heading but it will certainly bring flowers and happiness to humanity
A scientific revolution that encompasses all areas worldwide, such as IT communication, will hardly be replaced by a completely new scientific revolution. There are many areas in which further innovations are to be expected, such as artificial intelligence, genetic engineering and organ breeding or the "conquest" of the universe. All of this is already laid out in today's state of research. Firstly, this development is not fundamentally new, and secondly, the risks associated with such new developments are increasing - and here completely new consequences are possible that were not previously on the horizon of technology impact assessments.
Only the catastrophes that can be expected from gaps in the control and gaps in the controllability of technology - with continuing greed for power on the part of individuals or groups - will reach the mankind in any case - and free of charge!
In addition: In the face of further new developments in science and technology that we can expect, a factor must be set against this that has remained fairly constant over thousands of years - despite intelligent adaptation: human aggression, greed for power, possessions, exponentiality.
Thanks for the qustion aand the valuable information in all answers.
I hope it will be in finding solutions for the climate. Could imagine, however, that it will be in the field of biomedicine/genetics, as there are quite some new things in the pipeline. It also might be in AI.
Dear Christian G Meyer , thank you very much for your correction about the Poincaré conjecture that has already been solved by Perelman.
Rudi Darson
This is a good question, but the toughest one to answer. I must admit that this question has not crossed my mind before and, as a consequence, I do not have a "fully baked" answer. What I have, is a couple of assumptions, heuristics and frameworks that may help us conduct the "Klondike" search with the help of some recognisable "guard rails." See below, a couple of my thought starters:-
Most inventions or scientific breakthroughs that involve a change of a paradigm - an underlying assumption, belief of how a particular problem should be solved and the subsequent rules, standards, procedures, tools and techniques that emanate from those beliefs exhibit the following characteristics:-
After everything is said and done though, I suspect that one needs to look at the "fringes" to see what different people all over the world, are doing and working on, in their little and big corners to solve, mostly, social, economic and environmental problems. I suspect that if one applies the above "guard rails" as well as additional "guard rails" that I could not come up with spontaneously, to the pressing socio, economic and environmental challenges, one would not be far off.
Dear Kheepe Lawrence Moremi , you have summarized the conditions how breakthrough and scientific revolutions take place. Your field of study is Business Administration. What kind of breakthrough or scientific revolutions do you see coming in your field?
Dear Christian G Meyer you mention 'climate' and 'biomedicine/genetics' as fields where breakthroughs can take place because there are quite some new things in the pipeline. What are those new things you refer to?
The process is always on but the breakthrough yet to come. Maybe when the breakthrough happens
Quantum physics and Artificial intelligence.
Dr Kamath Madhusudhana
Kheepe Lawrence Moremi , I would like to hear that 'unscientific' answer.
Rudi Darson
Revolutions are by their nature revolutionary instead of being evolutionary. In addition, they are invisible and as a result, difficult if not impossible to predict. Having this however, I suspect that the current economic logic governing commerce within countries and trade between countries, will face some paradigm change.
You already see strains on the fringes of these logics and systems and a bit of tinkering or incremental innovations around the fringes. I suspect though, that these systems have reached their physical limits.
The major changes in the basic methodology of research in our time have all the characteristics of the paradigm shift in the sense of Thomas Kuhn. The new "manifold of knowledge" is built by complementing the traditional methodology based on the synergy between theory and observation with computer simulation and big data. Finally, it is possible to access the measurements with unprecedented resolution in time and space. All data-intensive disciplines such as astronomy, bioscience, economics and geoscience will benefit from an increased ability to identify patterns and structures never seen before.
This process will certainly lead to new discoveries that were not anticipated by existing theories. Inevitably, new theories will be created to explain newly discovered relationships.
I anticipate major discoveries in the following areas:
Astrophysics and Cosmology
Climate theory
cell biology
Structure of neurons
Theory of consciousness
Numerical Mathematics
Kheepe Lawrence Moremi
Commerce is part of economics and is also a decent field of scientific study (applied social science). In practice, it is trade/commerce that keeps the world moving.
I would like to see you elaborate a bit more about the revolution you talk about. Even if you can't see it, as you wrote, you can measure certain indicators on different moments and see what the results are. In that way you can hypothesize about the change or the revolution.
The revolution is always going on underground, mostly top secret. The time that it gets form, it is poured into a law, that has to be followed as a new paradigm. As in general the new thing comes always out of the army research. It were guns who came first automated. Further the new thing comes also from the research in the field of art, which is called pseudo-science. And so we see that the polarization gets in a higher dimension until it explodes on the political level but also on the individual level in thought and actions. A dialogue is for the moment not possible at no level at all.
Rita De Vuyst
The military or government in general indeed plays a big role in the development and funding of projects and innovation creating breakthroughs, e.g. the Internet and communication technology, space exploration. But a lot is also coming from private thinkers and researchers, think of Newton and Calculus as a method to calculate change.
Scanning the science eco-systems, the studies which are already out there and going to make it, can be pointed to. Who is going to receive the Nobel Prize for example in Economics, Physics, Medicine over 5 years for what? Imagination and science fiction, you mentioned 'art', can give us an idea.
Even if the revolution is going underground, with our imagination and what we see around us, we can hint to certain developments.
I am quite convinced that management and economics has to go in to the world game about limited resources - how to manage, distribute them with the responsibility for future generations. This problem is researched for about 40 years, and finally we need to find this "magic solution" for our problems, and trigger for then next "one small step for a man, one giant leap for mankind".
Rudi Darson
Eric Cantona, the former Manchester United footballer as an answer for you. I am attaching excerpts of his speech for ease of reference.
https://africa.espn.com/football/blog-the-toe-poke/story/3931080/eric-cantona-delivers-typically-unique-acceptance-speech-at-uefa-ceremony
Kheepe Lawrence Moremi
Is this what you mean what Cantona said:
"As flies to wanton boys are we to the gods; They kill us for their sport."
And the Frenchman, who has made a career as an actor since retiring from football, continued:
"Soon the science will not only be able to slow down the ageing of the cells, soon the science will fix the cells to the state and so we will become eternal. Only accidents, crimes, wars will still kill us but unfortunately crimes and wars will multiply. I love football. Thank you."
اعتقد ان الدول التي تحترم العقل والعلم هي من تتصدر هذا المجال
"Scientifically developed countries". What do you mean? I know "scientifically developed countries" in Africa and Asia, so what do you mean exactly?
We have to put all the scientific research, technology and human capital at the service of equity between our planet's resources and the sustainable future we all seek and desire ...
Scientific revolutions are ongoing, fluid dynamics dominating the development of paradigm shifts. A paradigm shift begins life when a given working system fails to satisfy the questions posed by its opponents.
In view of the new reports that NATO is training its combat operations with nuclear weapons (which potential opponents probably had planned for some time), one should wait for the next nuclear war and then speak with relief and new enlightenment about the "scientific revolution" - if anyone else is present.
Dear Reza Biria can you explain what fluid dynamics are and why we can expect paradigm shift there?
By fluid dynamics, I mean the perpetual interaction between societal needs vs. academic endeavours on the one hand and the competition between different scholars on the other. As Gifty Akita rightly observes, " The world needs great inspirers, to ignite the light in every soul.” Consequently, in their attempt to respond to such needs, scholars introduce their own theories and the theoretical contentions begin. In this interactive process, only the most credible and objective trends survive and the ones lacking strong evidential basis gave way to more vigorous philosophies about various truths of life. Such constant war of contentions , the everlasting struggle to establish the truths of the material world is a prerequisite to all great discoveries and paradigm shifts, which are always stimulated by external events.
Dear Jaydip Datta , minimizing the probability of dead? That is about the body, what about the mind? Are those two inextricably linked: body and mind? Can the mind exist without the body? And if you find cure for the body, do you also have to find cure for mind. Does the mind also grow old as the body or does it stay young?
Is there research as far as you now to achieve that: minimizing death or eradicate it?
To use nuclear power for cars,trucks generators,all automobile and railway
To perform brain transplantation
To predict death more accurately
Rudi Darson
Medical science can only certify clinical / materialistic death . But after death no
materialistic science can explain the evidence based status of spirit / soul . It is called philosophy but your innovation in question is stricktly defined to materialistic scientific session like computer science to biotechnology .
No science can describe the philosophy - ie another session .
Here we have to concentrate on clinical death ie brain death .
https://hbr.org/2010/11/the-big-idea-the-next-scientific-revolution
Kaushik Kumar Panigrahi
This article is from 2010, we are now in 2019. Do those ideas still hold?
HI,
Every scientific filed is booming with creativity, young minds and innovation. Life Sciences, research related to automobile, alternate fuel related research, would revolutionize global science.
Dear Colleagues and Friends from RG, In my opinion, the use of Big Data Analytics in the future may be revolutionary in forecasting complex natural processes and climate changes, forecasting complex economic processes, simulating the functioning of entire financial systems, forecasting financial crises, social processes, etc. The development of forecasting techniques is carried out, inter alia, through the use of information technologies ICT and Industry 4.0, including, among others, artificial intelligence, Business Intelligence research tools, Big Data Analytics and other technologies of computerized, multi-criteria, advanced data processing. Using Big Data Analytics analytical instruments and other Industry 4.0 technologies, it is possible to improve the prediction of predictions regarding the study of the continuation of certain complex climatic, market, space, geological, natural, economic, financial, social processes, etc. The following components of computerized technologies may be the basic components of this type of system advanced information processing typical of the current technological revolution referred to as Industry 4.0: - Big Data database system, - Business Intelligence analytical platform, - data processing in the cloud computing, - artificial intelligence. In addition, if this system has convenient access from the Internet, this type of solution can be enabled through the Internet of Things technology. In this way, access to the system or some of its modules could be realized e.g. from smartphones, tablets, laptops and other mobile devices. Therefore, if you have advanced research instruments of Industry 4.0 technology, including Big Data Analytics, which help in carrying out prognostic analyzes, it is possible to carry out sentiment analyzes on large sets of information downloaded from the Internet and stored in Big Data database systems. If this type of analytics is combined with advanced information processing instruments on Business Intelligence analytical platforms, then it is possible to build accurate research tools enabling precise analysis of predictions of predicted complex, multi-faceted processes for subsequent periods in the future, including complex climate, market and space processes, geological, natural, economic, financial, social etc.
Best wishes.
Dariusz Prokopowicz
Dear Rudi,
I would expect the next next Scientific revolution to begin when scientists realize that relativity of lightspeed particles has to be changed according to the path laid out in Robert Martineau's Photodynamics. The recent paper Photodynamics , Journal of Physical Mathematics, 2019, Vol 10, Issue 1, can be found on this site or on the web.
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