Delta ( B.1.617.2 )- VUI -https://www.researchgate.net/deref/https%3A%2F%2Fnature.us17.list-manage.com%2Ftrack%2Fclick%3Fu%3D2c6057c528fdc6f73fa196d9d%26id%3D91405eb436%26e%3D5944515236

Thanks.

Hi. It attacking the immune system more strongly.

Thanks.

Dear friend professor Filipe Wiltgen!

Thank you very much for such a burning question!

Thesis:

I cannot offer a scientific explanation for this problem, since I am not a specialist in the field of medicine.

The virus reacts very quickly to the opposition and successfully resists modern treatment methods.

In solving the problems associated with СOVID-19, the virus is still winning, and politics is its reliable partner, or rather an assistant!

In the media, published material on this topic is often biased or ordered.

Statistics on the use of existing vaccines published in different countries can be found in the public domain and their effectiveness can be compared.

This is a common problem, therefore it must be solved together, by the whole world, and not "butt" and sort things out. Only together, by uniting efforts, you can reach a positive result.

All health and all the best!

With deep respect, Volodymyr Naumchuk

My dear friend Prof. Volodymyr Naumchuk ,

Yes, I agree with every word you wrote.

Thank you as always for participating in these debates.

My deep respect and best wishes,

Wiltgen

Gracias, me mantendré informada al respecto con los nuevos criterios

Thanks Zuleiny Meneses Martin .

Delta variant has been exposed to a number of mutations that made it more dangerous than others, as one of the most worrying scientists and the world is that these mutations have given it the advantage of faster transmission than the previous variants, as it is faster than the alpha variant by 40-50%, and this is of course very worrying from a public health point of view because one of the most important points we rely on in pursuit of herd immunity is to reduce transmission rates...And here, unfortunately, with the emergence of this variant, the situation has become much worse...The good news that full vaccination is still largely effective against the Delta strain but may slightly be less effective than against other variants, and even less so after only one dose.

Dear Profa. Manal Hadi Kanaan ,

Thank you for your important input explaining the mutations and this covid variant.

My deep respect and best wishes,

Wiltgen

Also, I would like to add that this variant is the most transmissible variant for Covid. And if we realize that increased transmissibility is an exponential threat, so, this is very worrying...There is also a concern that this variant may develop further and be more threatening, because the virus cannot develop itself without the host, so with the increase in transmission rates, it may develop itself more... And frankly, the greatest threat is to people who have not acquired immunity against it, whether this is natural active acquired immunity generated after infection or artificial active acquired immunity generated after taking the vaccines... My sincere gratitude to all.

Dear Profa. Manal Hadi Kanaan , thank you!

A new variant of the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus called the Delta variant is said to have originated in India. In India, this new domino of Coronavirus triggered another, fourth wave of the pandemic, the scale of which was very large and caused a serious health problem, many people became seriously ill with Covid-19 and many died. In some other countries, this new variant of the Coronavirus has been diagnosed for over a month (since May). Diagnostic studies and analysis of the development of subsequent waves of the pandemic in individual countries show that the new variant of the Coronavirus, i.e. the Indian variety designated as Delta, is not only much more infectious (similarly to the previous, new variants of this virus, which caused the second and in early spring 2021 third wave of the pandemic in many countries) but also more pathogenic and partially resistant to currently used vaccines. Vaccines currently used in vaccination programs protect citizens from previous variants of Coronavirus, but their effectiveness may be lower by several or several percent. against the new Indian variant of the Coronavirus, designated Delta. What exactly will it be? it depends on many other factors which vary from country to country. However, it does not have to be very pessimistic news. More and more countries are progressing more efficiently with the vaccination of citizens against the Coronavirus. In most countries (except India) where people have been diagnosed with the Indian Delta Coronavirus, the number of these new infections is relatively small. infected people are in home quarantine or are treated in infectious disease departments of hospitals. Whether a new, fourth wave of pandemic appears in a given country is mainly determined by the quality of public institutions' application of anti-pandemic safety programs, pandemic risk management, crisis management, etc. protective measures, use of a social distance of at least 1.5 m in public places, frequent washing or disinfecting hands with the use of disinfectants, ...). The key issue of the pandemic risk management system is the issue of the integrity and reliability of the application of the rules, procedures for carrying out tests for the presence of specific varieties of Coronavirus at airports and other places where citizens cross borders, especially citizens coming to the country from abroad. Thanks to efficient pandemic risk management systems in these countries, despite the diagnosis of so far few cases of new human infections with the Indian coronavirus, Delta is another, fourth wave of the pandemic is not developing. On the other hand, the development of the next, fourth wave of the pandemic is expected in the fall of this year 2021, which will also be associated with a change in the weather aura, the season from summer to autumn, and an increase in human infections to various infectious diseases of the respiratory tract, diseases considered potentially coexisting with Covid disease -19 and having an impact on the general health, breathing status of the sick person. However, for at least 2 months (now we have mid-June 2021), leading pharmaceutical companies producing vaccines for Coronavirus have announced that by 2022 at the latest, and perhaps in the fall of this 2021, they will produce a new variant of the vaccine, which will be highly effective also for new Coronavirus variants that are active at a given time and cause subsequent waves of the pandemic.

Greetings, Have a nice day, Stay healthy!

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Dear Dariusz Prokopowicz,

Thank you for important contribution with your detailed account and your opinion.

My best regards,

Wiltgen

The new variants of covid that are arriving at the present time have increase transmissability and thus will come to dominate and outcomepeat previous strains.Increased transmissability tend to be due to changes in the glycoproteins spike that latches onto the host cells.Other possible mechanism might include higher virus yields per a cell, greater stability in the environment ,increased host range eg children, etc. Of course of greatest concern is that the virus becomes more resistant to the vaccines in current use.However modified vaccines can be developed as this is realitively straightforward with the recombinant and mRNA vaccines in current use.

Thank you Peter Roberts .

Thanks.

Let's start with a diagram that is reasonably similar to how viruses spread. Virus spread is a scale free network, and people don't normally visualize this well. If you want to test someone, ask them to sketch a scale-free graph diagram. (The result can be comical.) Scale free means that some people have a huge number of connections. (Ticket seller, bartender, priest in a cathedral, choir member, etc.) Those people will spread whatever variant they have to many people. Then you rapidly scale down to a long terminating at 0 infections transmitted.

You can think of that graph of number of infections transmitted as starting at 0, usually peaking at 0 or 1, and having a long tail going out to thousands. (This is a conventional graph, and follows a power law. The decline in numbers of people that transmit N infections is N^(1/m) where m is some value, usually low. Problem is, that usually we just don't have enough information to figure out what m is.

It may be true that a dominant variant is worse. But it is equally possible for a variant that is less contagious and less virulent to become dominant in an area. And most variants are no different, they just happened to dominate. The laws of chance dictate this. Think about the explosion you see below in the scale free network graph. Over time, viruses tend to evolve to be less virulent (disease isn't as bad) and sometimes less contagious, but sometimes more so. Being less virulent often means the virus maximizes its chances of propagation. If everyone wears masks, this will tend to evolve less virulent versions because to get to the same number of people requires more time.

However, viruses can evolve to be worse (more virulent, sometimes more contagious). This depends on conditions. Paul Ewald (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_W._Ewald) has done great work on this. He says that evidence indicates that, for instance, HIV evolved in Western cities in the bathhouse culture. With so much transmission guaranteed, there was no penalty for the virus to kill its host. So, it maximized virulence, and in those strains of HIV, peak viral loads can be 1 million copies per ml of blood. Ewald also discusses how malaria variants of virulence are regulated by the amount of time that the trypanosome must survive in a host before the next mosquito season. In areas where the mosquito season is year round, there is little or no penalty for killing the host, and that is where we see falciparum.

Below are several posts Vincent Racaniello has written trying to remind scientists that we ALWAYS see variants, and that the predominance of a variant does NOT mean it is more contagious or virulent.

https://www.virology.ws/2020/12/24/sars-cov-2-uk-variant-does-it-matter/

https://www.virology.ws/2021/01/28/sars-cov-2-variants-of-concern/

https://www.virology.ws/2021/02/25/understanding-virus-isolates-variants-strains-and-more/

https://www.virology.ws/2021/04/22/sars-cov-2-variants-arise-during-individual-infections/

https://www.virology.ws/2021/06/10/holiday-travel-explains-spread-of-a-sars-cov-2-variant/

Paul Ewald's book, "Evolution of Infectious Disease" (1996) is excellent. In my opinion this book, or equivalent material should be required for university courses on infectious disease. He maps out the evolutionary interaction between disease and host very well. I cannot recommend it enough.

https://www.amazon.com/Evolution-Infectious-Disease-Paul-Ewald/dp/0195111397

Thanks.

: )

Pandemic disease is a fractal graph. Like all math applied to the real world, it is true within its limits.

: )

In Chile we already have 2 cases. It is only a matter of time for the massive spread of this variant.

: |

Variants/mutations are happening all the time. This is made worse by the lack of any repair mechanisms for RNA (as with this virus) vs DNA. Also consider one virus will produce many millions of progeny.

Many mutations will be harmful to the virus and will be lost.Some may have an advantage and may tend to dominate. Increased transmissability is the most likely outcome.

: \

Dear friend Filipe Wiltgen,

Dear friend Filipe Wiltgen, ace & challenges between viruses & manufactures of vaccines & antiviral drugs. The closer we get to the solution, a new mutation occurs & a new strain of the virus is produced. and so on. This is like a game of snake & stairs. but in the end, humanity will triumph over this challenge by the hard work of the scientists & their good efforts.

Unfortunately this is a known and even expected phenomena that was warned by world class vaccine development expert Geert Vanden Bossche, he sent open letters to all authorities and he was shunned. He recently wrote an article on his personal site, answering exactly the question you ask. https://www.geertvandenbossche.org/post/why-the-ongoing-mass-vaccination-experiment-drives-a-rapid-evolutionary-response-of-sars-cov-2

Dear friend Prof. Shaker A.N. Al-Jadaan ,

I fully agree with you. I also think humanity will overcome the pandemic.

My concern is that we weren't as agile as we thought we were this time, which will be the next one, maybe even worse than this one.

In this modern time, we always thought we were unbeatable and that a pandemic would be something extremely remote, something that only occurred in past when human population was not in good health and sanitary conditions.

I wish you all health!

My deep respect and thanks,

Wiltgen

Camilo Urbina ,

Thank you very much. Too bad no one listened to Geert Vanden Bossche.

I also appreciate your participation and sending the link!

Best Regards,

Wiltgen

Delta variant originally discovered in India last December, The most important apparent advantage is that the mutations may make the strain more transmissible than any other variant

COVID mutates to survive.

Filipe Wiltgen , the generic problem as I see it is that when you have a virus so widespread and you introduce a mass vaccination program, it becomes yet another evolutive pressure to the genome of any virus. The problem had been seen and described in intensive production domestic animal populations. Viruses can be conceptualized as biochemical nano machines whose only purpose is to preserve the genetic information they contain. They do so by using the cellular capabilities of their hosts. Throughout co evolution that genetic information has slowly produced mechanisms to bypass immune systems of hosts. A wide spread virus, being replicated in a wide variety of conditions has the opportunity to evolve at a rate much proportionally higher. Outpacing that capacity of evolution with new vaccines is unlikely. We need to develop effective treatments and stop “sharpening” the virus through vaccination.

Camilo Urbina ,

You can understand that virus has generations of faster development than other beings, this is due to size at which accelerated lifespan greatly accelerates virus generations which leads to rapid and adaptive changes.

Every time many generations of viruses become immune to drugs, natural mutations develop.

Unfortunately in this case mutations occurred in mechanism of dissemination and contagion, which is one of main tools for a virus to stay alive.

Anyway, really given their size and their quick generations they adapt faster than our medications can take effect, we're always some laggards.

Thank you for your participation.

Best regards,

Wiltgen

Thanks Aqeel K. Hatem : )

: )

Yes, there are research findings suggesting that a new strain of Coronavirus, designated Indian Delta variety, is partially resistant to current SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) Coronavirus vaccines. Research is ongoing to determine what this level of immunity is. Therefore, leading pharmaceutical companies, such as Pfizer, already during the previous, third wave of the pandemic, which occurred in many countries in spring this year 2021, announced that in a few months they would produce a new version of the vaccine that could be administered to citizens as the so-called the third dose and to a much higher degree would ensure a high level of social, collective resistance of the society also taking into account the new variants of the Coronavirus. Unfortunately, currently (early July 2021) the spreading new Indian variant of the Coronavirus marked as Delta is causing the beginning or soon triggering a new, fourth wave of the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic. The effects of the health crisis of the next, fourth wave of the pandemic may be serious if it turns out that the Indian variant of the Coronavirus Delta is largely resistant to the currently used vaccines and that it is not only several times more infectious than previous variants of Coronavirus, but also that it can be much more pathogenic.

Greetings,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Thanks Dariusz.

Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2: More transmissible, more lethal, affecting younger population, and evading immunity induced by COVID-19 vaccines

Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 is becoming the most dominant strain in many countries (particularly UK, and US), because it can transmit much more rapidly, more lethal, and also evades immunity produced by COVIS-18 vaccines. one reason of spread is that it is mainly affecting school-age children who have, hitherto, been mostly unvaccinated (1-3).

1. Article Covid-19: Delta variant is now UK’s most dominant strain and...

2. https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/5-things-to-know-delta-variant-covid

3.Preprint Increased lung cell entry of B.1.617.2 and evasion of antibo...

Thank you Muhammad Yousuf .

Dear Prof. Filipe Wiltgen ,

The cause of increased infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 delta variant relative to alpha , beta or gamma variant is at this point not fully understood, but some mutations are highly suspected to lead to increased transmissibility and better immune evasion. Personally, I suspect that the P681R Mutation in Spike-Protein, which is found in delta variant, is significantly involved in enhancing viral infectivity, but I m also quite sure, this isolated mutation would not lead to increased infectivity. Instead it needs assistance of further relevant mutations to cause functional changes. P681R could increase the rate of S1-S2 cleavage, it is located in Furin-cleavage sequence (681-685). A P681R substitution results in enhancement of the basicity of the poly-basic sequence.Which additional mutations contribute to final effect of higher transmissibility and which mutations in delta variant lead to better immune escape, has to be answered (hopefully soon).

Dear Prof. Drazen Margetic ,

Thank you very much for accurate reply.

Yes, we hope that science finds faster ways, less aggressive to immunized and more lasting in prevention and immunization.

Best Regards,

Wiltgen

Does the study of the mutation of the Corona virus over a period of two years allow to predict any possible mutation in the future or no ?

Elementary my dear Watson, mutations follow Darwin's evolution in the goals of a virus. Some mutations become the dominant according to Darwin theories, because if they are he fittest to reproduce and spread they will be more aggressive to the human body to maximize their numbers.

However there is a tipping point, being overly aggressive to the host means they stop spreading as much, since they kill the host before passing on to other hosts. Tc