Very valid nice discussion. Following.

I think the virus spread rate will decrease in the coming days. It is stated that it has been covered a long way in vaccination and drug studies. Periodically these outbreaks affect the whole world. These effects can be on health, tourism and economy. Measures that can be applied all over the world should be taken against such epidemics and every country should comply with these measures. For example, we can observe that Iran does not comply with quarantine measures these days. This affects all the countries around it Although such diseases generally affect people with low immune system, the whole society should comply with hygiene and protection measures and should be trained in this regard.

I hope it will collapse because the summer is coming and the high temperature will limit the virus spread which makes it less infection even though the virus aggressive Contagious. we should pray to find a suitable cure and vaccine as nearest as possible. Ilhami Unluoglu

At the moment it's seems to be scary. But I hope the situation gets better with time, changing season and increasing people's awarenesses about it's Preventive measures.

Yunus Emre Sarı in Iraq as Iran neighbor, there are no serious protection procedures that have been taken till now. In the beginning, they use a thermometer to test the incoming passengers and now they stope use it. Iraq like Iran, So we hope no disaster happens in Iraq.

Dear Prof. Unluoglu! Please let me argue that this question cannot yet be answered. Much depends on the fact whether this virus is able to become agile, adapting to changes in the human body resisting the impact of medicines. In case this virus will be able to spread out via air - hopefully not, the consequences might become highly severe - in line with the worst case scenario:

1) Yasemin Saplakoglu (2020). " How will the coronavirus outbreak end? Citation: " It's difficult to predict how the virus will behave.  " LIVESCIENCE - © Future US, Inc. Available at:

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-outbreak-end.html

2) (ECDC). "Q & A on COVID-19 - 3. Is this virus comparable to SARS or to the seasonal flu (influenza)?" © European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control

Available at: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/novel-coronavirus-china/questions-answers

I hope for the best but preparing for the worst. Yours sincerely, Bulcsu Szekely

I hope the spread of this virus will decrease in the coming days, and the seasonal change will affect the rate of spread. and some study suggest using chloroquine phosphate to cure some cases in China.

https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/bst/advpub/0/advpub_2020.01047/_article

Curently ,the disease is not controlled because of the new generation of the viruse. However ,I think it is not so dangerous as it was at the beginning due to the great efforts of the medical staff all around the world and increasing people's awareness to follow the instructions.We hope that it will be controlled soon and we know that we always may be susceptible to the unknown.

Dear Emre Pakdemirli, Amina Sultan, Afraa Ibrahim, Yunus Emre Sarı, Mohammed Faez Hasan, Bulcsu Szekely, Mahmood Hammood, Huda A Al-Sarraf and Balqees Al-Musawi thank you for your valuable answers, sharing your opinions in detail. Of course it's a difficult question. But since this place is an academic platform, so I decided to ask.

• I think that until the solution is found, weak health people will be affected. Although the population without health problems will have no risk.

A hypothesis based on animal genetics:

In predicting epidemics in different populations, we shall consider the genetics particularity of population besides reproductive ratio(R0). If R0 of COVID 19 would be in the region of 1-4, the prevalence of this disease in different countries requires its own model. Because people's sensitivity or resistance may vary in different countries. In other words, probabilities in country A cannot be used for country B. At higher values (e.g. R0 > 5) the genetic significance of the susceptibility or resistance of individuals decreases.

"Will the spread rate decrease in the coming months like SARS and MERS?"

SARS followed the Bass diffusion model very well. If we apply the same model to the new disease, it can be seen that it is likely that the rate will decrease very soon. Here's my forecast (see the graph).

Dear Manel Becerra, Seyed Abbas Rafat and Andrey Davydenko thank you for your valuable answers, sharing opinions in detail.

Not being a disease-focused public health professional, but working in injury prevention and intervention, I'm baffled by the case data currently available and I'm hoping someone can truly enlighten me. Following the ARCGIS data set, I have been calculating simple mortality per 100,000 based using the most recent census estimates (2018) for country population data. My analyses place mortality for COVID-19 at about 0.04 for the US at the present time (03.18.20). Yet when compared to US traumatic brain injury rates leading to death, the mortality rate is 17.3/100K. We talk little about preventable injuries such as TBI (with rates at over 400+ times that of COVID-19) and yet the world, as we know it, has turned upside down. Am I truly missing something here?

Susan M Wolf : Sorry, I'm afraid it is not very clear to me:

What is the mortality rate for TBI? 17.3/100000 or 17.3/100 ?

If it is 0.173 and it is over 400+ times that of COVID-19 then the mortality rate for COVID-19 must be 0.173/400=0.00043, but it's estimate is now around 0.043.

So maybe you made some mistake (I'm not sure though).

But according to your numbers the mortality rate of TBI is only 4 times higher than that of COVID-19. Also, it seems to me it is much easier to prevent COVID-19 compared to TBI (I'm not a public health professional, so, I am of course not sure about it) . Both TBI and COVID-19 are connected with a very serious risk, but the latter is a contagious disease, that's why it is getting more attention

True, COVID-19 is contagious but based on the math below, the response is not equivalent to the scare. Both are preventable, based on common sense, logic and sound reasoning. And health care costs for TBI with its long-term consequences and sequelae and risk for future injury and chronic health and mental health conditions should be as concerning as positive cases with full recovery from something like "the flu." TBI survivors (75,000 a year of the 2.5 million who show up at hospitals) are injured so significantly that they are eligible for disability benefits and this happens every year in the US.

SO:

Current TBI mortality rate is approximately 57,000 per year. Based on population, that is a rate of 17.3 per 100,000 in the US.

Current mortality rate for COVID-19 (thus far) in US is 200 deaths with a population of approx 329,470,935.

Rate = (Cases / population) * 100,000 = 0.0607 per 100,000

That makes the TBI mortality rate about 233 times that of COVID-19 as of today, knowing that COVID-19 numbers will continue to rise but certainly not exponentially, as we are already seeing declines in several countries.

But we also are uncertain of the true rate of TBI mortality, since many cardiac failures and respiratory failures actually stem from brain injuries (many undiagnosed) and are not necessarily noted on the death certificate. I know communicable disease and injury are both significant public health issues, I am just not understanding the overwhelming impact of a disease process that, even if it was 100 times as bad as it is today, would not be half as impacting to the system as the typical TBI rate, that has been standard for well over a decade with the same level of incidence occurring annually. WHY is the COVID-19 concern so overwhelming that we have changed just about everything we know in life to be true. The media has inflamed hysteria, the economic impacts are crippling across dozens of sectors (globally), the social issues are significant, and the future mental health concerns, especially for children, have yet to be seen.

These are probably all musing from the edge, but my questions are as vast as the Grand Canyon that I call home.

Susan M Wolf : Thanks, now I understood your calculations. Sure, there are many other preventable diseases that do not receive the attention they require. There are many infectious diseases that are being spread by hospitals and nobody really cares. For example, see this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stafford_Hospital_scandal

Hopefully, now the hygiene in hospitals will improve due to the better understanding by both patients and doctors of the consequences of poor hygiene practices.

Dear Susan M Wolf and Andrey Davydenko thanks for your replies and discussion. You are right. However, there is a future uncertainty about COVID-19. In my opinion, this worries the people.

This is a good topic to be discussed but its information should be re-new periodically because the victims and information related to COVID-19 increases/change over the time.

Dear Rafid A. Abdullah, thanks for your answer and opinion. You are right. I asked the question on February 28. The information can be updated. Actually, I just wanted to get predictions about the future. I wish there was a chronological list of questions about COVID-19 on this platform; we could see the process of the questions related with COVID-19.

Its a worrying situation at the moment....

Dear Kafula Chisanga yes you are right. Your concern is valid for the whole world.

I am sure the corvid 19 outbreak will reach its peak in 3-4 months after this case is discovered, and will subside with time. limiting general activity, increasing endurance, not tress is the key to suppressing the rate of the corvid epidemic 19

I will choose to play the devil's advocate over COVID-19. I do not see justification. The hysteria and economic collapse from knowing who "Patient Zero" is for the COMMON COLD does not exist. And, we still have no cure for the common cold. We know it leads to other bacterial infections and complications, it exacerbates asthma and chronic health conditions, and individuals can get re-infected. We do not count cases of the new or recovered cold cases on the nightly news and every social media channel.

We have massive population infection rates, incidence counts, and mortality data for the generic "flu" each year. CDC estimates in the US we will have 38-54 million cases, 18-26 million hospital visits, 400,000 - 730,000 hopitalizations, and 24,00-62,000 deaths. And this year is TYPICAL. We don't occupy every waking minute of media time counting people with the flu. Nor do we do it with new cases of diagnosed heart disease or renal failure or other lethal diseases, globally, with no known cures. None of these known illnesses have given cause to global measures, public health outcry, nor economic collapse.

In the "worst case scenario" of the confined spaces and shared ventilation of the Princess Cruise Ship, the infection rate (given 3,711 passengers and crew - thus the denominator) is less than 20% (n=712). They had a higher than average population of individuals over the age of 60 and the mortality on the ship sits at 0.2% (n=10).

The hysteria and the ethical responsibility of all this rests on the globalist politicians and media outlets who are churning this "pandemic" into a frenzy for the general public. It also rests on the public health officials failing to do level-headed, common sense, reasonable assessments and questioning the "statistics" being spewed from lecterns and podiums.

From one perspective, I am also saddened by those who have become or will become seriously ill or have succumb to this lethal disease. I'm equally saddened for victims (children and adults) who are confined to homes with abusive family members, friends and others who are experiencing unthinkable and unspeakable acts being perpetrated against them. I'm angered that people seeking recovery from addictions cannot find community-based meetings and support groups in their time of need. I'm concerned for those with mental health issues whose stress levels are peaking from the trauma-drama of the media hysteria. I'm angered because children are learning about 'fear of the unknown' without credible and reliable resources. And I'm empathetic to those elderly with fixed incomes who live based on investments that are now dwindling and they have no means of recovery. For all that and more, I'm saddened.

Conversely, I am THRILLED that we are actually telling people, constantly, about good public health practices (e.g., wash you hands, don't touch your face, deep clean surfaces, have concern for the elderly and chronically ill, etc.). This is GREAT for public health! We ARE raising awareness. And even though the PUBLIC itself doesn't always adhere to or listen intently, the messaging does matter. We who work in public health know this.

BUT, for me, THE NUMBERS OF THIS PANDEMIC DO NOT ADD UP to the response.

Dear Ir Wan and Susan M Wolf thanks for your replies and discussion about COVID-19 .

I think it is now part of our life like other viruses. For example influenza, dengue etc. It will be a fear till availability of vaccine. As soon vaccine is available, life will become normal.

Dear Nafees Mohammad, the vaccine seems to be difficult to be found in a short time. More importantly, it will take a long time for most of the communities to reach the vaccine.

An unfortunate adverse effect of social isolation for the Covid-19 pandemic has arisen. There has been a dramatic fall in the number of blood donors in Saudi Arabia a result of social isolation during the Covid-19 Pandemic. Supplies of blood are being depleted. This is likely to be a global phenomenon

Patients may die as a result of not being transfused blood for severe acute bleeding due to stress ulceration, for example.

Dear Rajkumar Rajendram, thank you for your answer. The measures taken against pandemic are very important. However, there are problems that they can create, of course. I thank you for drawing attention to one of these problems.

All the data are differ from one country to another, regarding death rate, recovery rate and new infection rates. Even the causes of death and the pathogenicity is still a matter of controversy. No other disease have this diversity and controversy like covid19.

Dear Azzawi Hadi, thank you for your answer. You are right about your comment; Yes there are huge differences.

Infection seems to be a most. Unless a vaccine is developed. Social distancing just postponed infection for a while, in hope of getting treatment or vaccine, Immune system have the last word.

Dear Azzawi Hadi, thank you for your answer.

These positive environmental effects of Covid-19 are likely mostly temporary, but may serve as an example that changes in our way of life can have prompt positive effects for the environment and demonstrate the usefulness of travel-reducing measures such as teleconferencing. Thus, acknowledging that COVID-19 is first and foremost a global disaster, the pandemic may inspire to future behavioral changes with positive environmental effects. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/20008686.2020.1768023

In relation to environmental and sustainability issues, different challenges are associated with COVID-19 crisis. The understanding of the environmental conditions which favor the evolution of the pandemic, particularly when related to climate changes, variations in ecosystems, or biodiversity losses, is essential in estimating the risks. Some major concerns are found regarding medical waste management, wastewater treatment, counter impacts of air pollution, and climate changes https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10668-020-01004-5

There is no evidence of a direct connection between climate change and the emergence or transmission of COVID-19 disease. As the disease is now well established in the human population, efforts should focus on reducing transmission and treating patients.

However, climate change may indirectly affect the COVID-19 response, as it undermines environmental determinants of health, and places additional stress on health systems. More generally, most emerging infectious diseases, and almost all recent pandemics, originate in wildlife, and there is evidence that increasing human pressure on the natural environment may drive disease emergence. Strengthening health systems, improved surveillance of infectious disease in wildlife, livestock and humans, and greater protection of biodiversity and the natural environment, should reduce the risks of future outbreaks of other new diseases. https://www.google.com/search?q=future+of+Coronavirus+disease+%28COVID-19%29+and+Environment&client=ucweb-b&channel=sb

Environmental conditions play important role in the spread of this menace as cold climatic condition favour in outbreak of the disease.

In relation to environmental and sustainability issues, different challenges are associated with COVID-19 crisis. The understanding of the environmental conditions which favor the evolution of the pandemic, particularly when related to climate changes, variations in ecosystems, or biodiversity losses, is essential in estimating the risks.

Some major concerns are found regarding medical waste management, wastewater treatment, counter impacts of air pollution, and climate changes. Otherwise, some measures (i.e., lockdown) (Rajput et al. 2020) employed to slow down and mitigate the diffusion of the pandemic have some positive impacts on the natural environment.

The restrictions on transport activities, for example, contributed to significant reduction in energy consumption demanded by transportation sector (Muhammad et al. 2020).

Oil demand by different industrial sectors is further declined as most industrial activities are halted worldwide (Muhammad et al. 2020). The limited social and economic activities during this pandemic resulted also in pollution reduction

Dear Serdar Kalemci, I also think optimistically like you about the pandemic.

Dear Hassan Izzeddin Sarsak, yes, you are right; the importance of environmental health and safety has become more important all over the world.

Dear Chinaza Godswill Awuchi, thank you for your detailed answers. I think a lot of research will be published in the near future on the relationship between COVID-19 disease and climate change.

Dear Faraed Salman, yes, you are right, the pandemic had effects in many areas.

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought about several effects on the environment and climate. Due to movement restriction and a significant slowdown of social and economic activities, air quality has improved in many cities with a reduction in water pollution in different parts of the world. This brief looks at environmental factors that potentially contribute to the emergence of disease and the effects of COVID-19, and environmental impacts that have arisen from COVID-19. The economic and social disruption caused by the pandemic is devastating: tens of millions of people are at risk of falling into extreme poverty.