In the November issue of the Journal of Conflict Resolution (https://tinyurl.com/tyhrn2j) Adrian Lucardi and I, debate with Bunce, Wolchik, Hale, Houle, Kayser, and Weyland, about whether democracy protest diffuse? We find across thousands of statistical models, that the don't between 1989-2000, in general? BW and W suggest that they might in very unusual circumstances.
What are your thoughts? In what situations do you think they might spread? Why, despite all the protests occurring today in close succession of each other, is no one is talking about protest diffusion?
Especially during the Cold War period, state-centered policies were followed. In this period, the ideas of communism and capitalism were the concepts adopted by opposing administrations. States have attempted to suppress thoughts with contrasting interior in the harsh methods. In their foreign affairs, they adopted the way of solidarity against the opposite pole. individual and social rights and responsibilities during this period was sidelined. However, especially a relative media freedom in the world, along with the end of the Cold War has occurred. Technology, development of communication and transportation has led to big changes at the global level. Now there is the model was introduced for the citizens of the state are models for the citizens of the state. Domestic and international transportation accelerated, became easier and cheaper. Also thanks to the internet people's national, international and transcontinental communication is much easier. Even the smallest event on one side of the earth has spread to the whole sphere within seconds and has been announced to everyone. In this process, people got to know each other more closely and have a better understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of their countries. Being aware of an event that took place in a country, its evaluation and organization of similar claims took place very quickly. If the events taking place in every corner of the earth express a common problem and lack, especially in the other country, it is natural to ask for a similar one. In this respect, the concept of social media has made the difference between private and public life unclear. A very small event has been the trigger for great results, which will have enormous consequences. Therefore, the 21st century has very different characteristics from the previous ages. New and value-creating phenomena such as organization in social media and non-governmental organizations have become indispensable in our lives. In the world of the future, humanity is expected to react even more closely to problems and shortcomings, especially on common values.
Thanks very much for the thoughtful suggestion!! We look at interconnectedness in terms of internet access and did not see an effect. But, we were not able to measure media neighborhoods. Technological innovation facilitates awareness of protests, but it does not change the calculus of individuals in terms of whether a protest will be successful in their country. We examine democracy protests and anti-regime protests. Other types of protests might be different. Perhaps you had these in mind. I'd speculate that where protest is permissible, that technology facilitates the spread of protests -- as in the #Metoo movement, Climate Change, and so forth -- through emulation. Suggestions for quantitative research testing general trends on this subject would be more than welcome.
Very interesting question. Geographic proximity, as in the Arab Spring protests, for example would be a reason for protest diffusion. Another would be similarity of the cause represented: eg., climate change. Electronic communication seems to facilitate timing and techniques of protest. Results of some solid quantitative research would be hlepful.
This is a good question to call for an international conference, because the diffusion hypothesis seems to be widespread. Please look at my enclosed argument.
The results may be a bit different for the 1960s given the amount of student protests that took place. For example, there were instances of solidarity protests in the United States following the 1968 Tlatelolco Massacre in Mexico, which was a student protest that had been attacked by the Mexican military. While much of the protests in Mexico at the time were for economic reasons, I believe there were democracy-related causes as well.
I would also wonder if protests would be more likely to diffuse to multiple countries within the European Union since EU legislation can affect all the countries within its jurisdiction.
Paulo Krischke , Dawn Brancati , Justin Patrick , Nancy Kinney , Mehmet Emir
I might just mention that in sociology and in particular in critical theory, the kind of 'diffusion' at issue here has been theorized in terms of 'collective learning', typically related to the study of social movements. See Habermas and the discussion around his work.
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