I have a Markov model from a colleague for wound healing. 4 stages open infcetd closed and deathd death. The paper used to inform the transition data has monthly healing rate over 6 months and an overall infection rate within those 6 months.
My colleague used the month 1 healing data for the transition probability and calculated a monthly probability for infection. I do not underttand why the firtst months healing data was suitable rather than calculating from using all of the healing data at months 1,2,3,4,5,and 6.
My colleague is no longer here and no-one else can explain. I am concerned our out come is wrong due to wrong data being used. we are using a time horison of 5 and then 10 years.
thanks for any advice
You may be right. If you consider that healing is permanent and thus obviates the risk of subsequent infection, then his one month healing rate pertains. However, healing is not binary, because most wounds heal with a scar that is inferior in quality to native tissue. As a result, many wounds recur after appearing to be healed due to recurrent trauma or illness. Consider the fact that venous stasis ulcers of the ankle have a high relapse rate while an injury to the scalp heals rapidly after injury with minimal incidence of infection or recurrence. The main differentiating factor is the quality of blood flow and delivery of oxygen. Hypoxia is characteristic of the ankle due to its dependent position when we stand or sit.
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