Hi,

There are several aspects for modelling the uncertainty. I assume you want to model it with scenario-based approach.

These references might help:

1-Generating Short-Term Probabilistic Wind Power Scenarios via Non-Parametric Forecast Error Density Estimators

2-A scenario-based analytical method for probabilistic load flow analysis

DOI:Article A scenario-based analytical method for probabilistic load fl...

3-Probabilistic load flow computation using Copula and Latin hypercube sampling

DOI:10.1049/iet-gtd.2013.0649

The above article explains the LHV method for scenario generation. You also can use Monte-Carlo for sampling, and generating scenarios.

There are many different methods for scenario reduction. One of them is clustering and you can use the Fuzzy C-mean Clustering method for that.

The book "Algorithms for Fuzzy Clustering" might help.

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10586-017-1350-1

Article Uncertainty modeling of wind power frequency regulation pote...