For Example Climate Sensitivity

Climate sensitivity refers to the change in radiative forcing, or surface air temperature, resulting from a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration. Estimates of climate sensitivity range from about 2°C to 5°C per doubling of CO2. This range exists due to uncertainties in atmospheric physics, particularly feedback mechanisms between various atmospheric states and surface air temperature or CO2 concentration. For instance, the impact of changes in radiative forcing on cloud processes is not well understood, leaving uncertainty about whether clouds will mitigate or amplify warming.

Below is a list of the main feedbacks in the climate system:

  • Water vapor feedback
  • Lapse rate feedback
  • Ice albedo feedback
  • Carbon cycle feedback

Climate scientists dedicate their careers to refining our understanding of these feedbacks. They use paleoclimate data, model experiments, and modern measurements to address these uncertainties. However, uncertainties remain in each feedback, and when combined, they create a complex, high-dimensional problem. Depending on the true magnitude of these feedbacks, climate sensitivity could range from 2°C to 5°C.

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