Will Trump’s 25% Tariffs on Canada Exclude Crude Oil? What Are the Betting Odds?
Speculation is mounting that if Donald Trump returns to the White House, he will impose a 25% tariff on Canadian imports. The big question, though, is: Will crude oil be exempt?
A blanket tariff on Canadian goods would shake up industries like automobiles, steel, aluminum, and agriculture, making everything from cars to lumber more expensive for American consumers. But crude oil? That’s where things get tricky.
Why Would Trump Exempt Canadian Crude?
Canada is the largest supplier of crude oil to the U.S., providing millions of barrels per day, particularly from Alberta’s oil sands. Many U.S. refiners, especially in the Midwest and Gulf Coast, rely on this supply. Slapping a 25% tariff on crude would likely send U.S. gas prices soaring—something no president wants.
From an economic standpoint, exempting crude oil makes sense. Trump has often talked about energy dominance and lowering fuel prices. Taxing Canadian crude could contradict that message and hurt American consumers at the pump.
The Betting Odds: Will Crude Oil Be Spared?
If you were placing a bet, odds favor an exemption for crude oil. Trump’s trade policies are aggressive, but they are also politically calculated. Given the impact on gas prices, it’s unlikely he would risk the backlash of expensive fuel—especially heading into an election.
However, nothing is guaranteed. If Trump sees an opportunity to push for more U.S. drilling by taxing foreign oil, he could take a gamble. And if relations with Canada sour over other tariffs, retaliation could further complicate energy trade between the two countries.
What’s Next?
If these tariffs become reality, expect a mix of economic consequences, political pushback, and potential Canadian retaliation. The oil exemption—if it happens—will likely be framed as a necessary exception to protect American consumers, while tariffs on other industries could be used as leverage in future trade negotiations.
So, will Trump exclude Canadian crude? If Vegas were taking bets, the safe money says yes—but with Trump, surprises are always possible. What odds do you place on the question?
President Donald Trump has announced that he will impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. However, whether crude oil will be included in these tariffs remains unclear. Trump mentioned that oil "may or may not" be covered by the tariffs and that a final decision would be made soon. The uncertainty around this decision has significant implications for both the U.S. and Canadian economies, particularly in terms of energy prices and trade relations
President Trump's recent 25% tariffs on imports from Canada exclude crude oil, which will be subject to a 10% duty. This decision aims to balance trade relations while considering the significant role of Canadian crude oil in U.S. energy needs. Canada accounts for about 60% of U.S. oil imports, with some U.S. refineries, especially in the Midwest, relying heavily on Canadian crude.
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