What would be the impact of the results of US Presidential Election held in November, 2016 on the world economy and South Asian Economy?
It is too early to predict because the election promises are just election promises. It is not an economic reality. A change in government in a developed country does not lead into an economic revolution, or a significant impact on the global economy. The economy is a big machine and it takes time to turn around.
Thanks.
I think, the elections will enhance the South Asian economy because for most South Asian countries it becomes evident, that they can not rely on a fair trade with the US. So they better develop their relations, characterized by the Five Principles:
1)Mutual respect for each other's territorial integrity and sovereignty.
2)Mutual non-aggression.
3)Mutual non-interference in each other's internal affairs.
4)Equality and cooperation for mutual benefit.
5)Peaceful co-existence.
The elections as well showed that "Western democracy" made in USA as a blueprint doesn't exist anymore wherefore South Asia can focus on economic and cultural issues.
The more independent of the US Asia is, the better for the economy, because the volatility is less. Asia should be prepared for a Dollar crash by strengthening Asian currencies.
As has been pointed out, it is too early to tell. There are mixed signals emerging from the stated positions and promises made during election and the actions and appointments taking place. The path forward for the US and for the World would become clear only when some policy pronouncements are made.
That will depend upon how the respective economies will deal with not only the recent outcome of the US elections but with any exogenous shock....Having said that emerging economies should find other ways of boosting their economic performance and get disentangled from the capitalist mode of production. Given the inherent instability of capitalism, economies that are lined up with its basic tenets are bound to fail dismally...
There are some very good points made by all the correspondents to the original question posed. Essentially I agree with the statements made that it is too early to tell. If though the remarks of the President elect and his advisers are taken at face value then there could well be some serious and adverse implications for the SE Asian economies. Thee extent to which they are affected will depend on their exposure to the US market and that to the World economy in general. For example if the US turns isolationist and raises tariffs unilaterally then that could have a dampening effect on world trade in general and the SE Asian economies would be affected by that. If the US contravenes WTO rules and carries out unilateral trade policies against individual economies and in particular China then that would have an effect on those economies that export materials and components to China for processing and including in Chinese exports. Possibly the most worrying are the statements re the WTO. Despite its shortcomings its rules reduce the uncertainties for firms trading internationally and as a result provide some stability in the international trading system. Let's hope it is only campaign rhetoric and we do not see instability in the world economy and trade wars erupting between countries. That would lead to a decline in economic welfare even for the US.
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