According to the latest publications and news the majority of the experts argue that Coronavirus (COVID-19) slows down the economy, the consumption falls, and most of the industries face a recession.
Close of industriai sector, slow growth rate, increase in joblessness, impacts on education system.
László Vértesy
Great question. From the look of things, based on observations of ket actions taken by different governments, individuals/households and businesses, one can draw a couple of inferences:-
Net, I do not government spending will be sufficient to compensate for deceleration on the three (3) other variables. Even a relaxation of monetary policy will not be sufficient.
Consequences of cornavirus will be beyond economic ones. In adition of the economic recession, people are living in high degress of stress. We know that stress has bad consequence on the heath difficult to evaluate on short-run.
It is an economic war. There will be a shift from one big to another big.
Excellent contribution from Kheepe Lawrence Moremi, concerning market and state interplay.
The current politization ('risk panic') of illness and disease will not help to find practical solutions to this 'modern' pandemic and biohazard. The global supply chain 'game' will face fundamental re-engineering and re-thinking, concerning resilience. The global travel and tourism sector will be hit severely, with certain restrictions imposed, concerning eco-logical quality measures.
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A great chance lies in exponential knowledge automation technologies (education, medicine, finance, engineering), which can reduce non-necessary physical effort (labor, capital) and save vital resources of nature and humanity.
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Only a more rational and ethical life-style (human species-appropriate), in terms of economic quality and not quantitative consumerism, can save the body of humanity from self-annihilation.
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The global economic growth engine of the 21st century will be driven by all investments and innovations, which are related to human health.
https://healthmanagement.org/c/icu/issuearticle/health-the-economic-growth-engine-of-the-21st-century-1
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1103540/philippines-economic-impact-coronavirus-covid-19/
https://www.bloombergquint.com/opinion/coronavirus-the-economic-impact-of-covid-19-on-india
https://www.uschamber.com/series/above-the-fold/quick-take-coronavirus-economic-impact
ETC
Great contribution Stephen I. Ternyik on the supply chain perspective. I suspect that trend towards distributed manufacturing will accelerate, especially in light of the interplay between; 1) health and hygiene factors; 2) environmental hazards as well as; 3) 4IR capabilities.
Great contribution Niyungeko Antoine on emotional and personal costs in the short run.
The major impact of COVID-19 on the global economy will be lesser manufactruing ability and fewer international transactions in the form of export and import. This in return will cripple the global economy in no time.
economy will change after appeared this virus , the first consequences represent by drop the oil price and second one by destroying the financial markets especially in arab country,
World economy will need at least one year (my guess) to overcome the virus itself. Everything will slowdown starting from tourism to international trade and commerce to industrial production. Big countries like India(I am from India) will face daunting challenges to bring back already derailed economy.
There will be a huge effect of the lock down in the countries in the coming days. However, some economies will be escaped from the contagious effect if they have huge consumers once the lock down will over.@vertesy
If you download the Deutsche Bank research doc shown in the link below, you will see that on pages 9-10 they provide a set of scenario conditional forecasts. It's all grim reading...
https://ftalphaville.ft.com/longroom/content/73921
The major impact of the coronavirus is inflation due to excess demand without a corresponding supply of goods and services. It will also result to unemployment of abled men and women who have the viability to work due to the shutdown of the economies...
Dear Colleagues and Friends from RG, Currently, many economic data indicate that due to the development of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic causing Covid-19 disease, many companies, enterprises suspend operations or entrepreneurs are closing their companies and service facilities in an increasing number of sectors and industries. Therefore, currently (April 2020) economic growth is slowing down in many countries. Current estimates show that in 2020, the global economy will probably slow down its growth by several percent. compared to the previous year. Therefore, it is necessary to permanently improve and increase the scale of anti-crisis socio-economic policy planned, developed and implemented both at the level of individual countries as well as within coordinated international activities. In some countries, pro-development, interventionist, anti-crisis programs have already been launched to save business entities from mass bankruptcy by introducing additional temporary tax breaks or exemptions, subsidies to employees' remuneration under fiscal policy. On the other hand, as part of monetary policy, central banks reduce interest rates, launch loans for commercial banks on preferential terms, buy lost loans from commercial banks and / or implement sovereign bond buy-back programs to maintain liquidity in the commercial and public financial system of the state. However, the question arises how many months of this type of high budget aid programs can be implemented? To what level can the budget deficit and public debt be increased as part of the implementation of this type of anti-crisis programs helping the economy, enterprises and citizens? To what level can the government allow inflation to rise as a result of this type of economic assistance programs? Can the current economic crisis in many countries turn into a crisis of public finances? If it is possible, what anti-crisis economic reform program should be currently planned and implemented in these countries to avoid a significant increase in the risk of potential loss of liquidity in the state's financial system? In connection with the above, one more question arises: Do you agree with the thesis that as part of limiting the scale of pandemic development through the use of forced home quarantine and forced suspension of economic activity in a significant part of branches and sectors of the economy, it is possible to run the above-mentioned government anti-crisis for many months at the same time programs to help the economy and not paying attention to financial costs, not paying attention to the growing scale of public debt of the public finance system? Therefore, the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus pandemic causing Covid-19 disease on the global economy is very large. The high probability of potential recession of the global economy and in many countries in 2020 is currently estimated. Well, in 2020 it is no longer trade wars that will be the main factor in the decline in international trade, international capital flows and other factors of production, international economic cooperation. In 2020, the main factor behind the decline in international trade, international capital flows and other production factors, international economic cooperation, etc. will be the development of the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus pandemic causing Covid-19. What do you think about my research thesis? Many current economic data already confirm the thesis that probably now (April 2020) in many countries an economic crisis begins, which may after a few months turn into a debt crisis of the state's financial system. If this situation occurs in many countries, then in 2020 the global economy will most likely slow down its growth by several percent. compared to the previous year. In connection with the above, other research questions arise: Can the currently beginning economic crisis in many countries turn into a crisis of public finances? If it is possible, what anti-crisis economic reform program should be currently planned and implemented in these countries to avoid a significant increase in the risk of potential loss of liquidity in the state's financial system? The issue of the impact of the development of the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus pandemic on national economies discussed above is developmental, dynamically developing, with every day more important data appear that may affect the specificity, nature and scale of the correlations analyzed.
Best wishes.
Dariusz Prokopowicz
My (albeit non-"global political economy" professional) opinion is that...
(esp. with so many financial crises and a pronounced inability to quench them, consumerism running rampant, rising individual and stagnating internal state debt) world's economy was already in deep trouble before the viral outbreak, and that the latter masks negative economic trends that aleady existed.
One effect I am expecting to see post-quarantine, is the tanking of non-competitive, non-innovative, or high risk-investing companies and financial institutions - with no "saving grace" assistance from the state.
Another effect (sadly, due to mortality in different age groups) would be the slight lightening of state's social aid/ pension expenditure, coupled with some losses in industries already in want of highly specialized human resources.
Since we are (as of yet) unaware of the mid- and long-term health ramifications of the virus on people who have survived it, a third effect would be a possible change in the management strategies of some health conditions.
Would unreasonable dieting practices cease to exist? - time will tell.
On a more positive note, some companies operating in the fields of biomedical R&D, pharmaceuticals, healthcare protective gear and machinery, telecommunications, internet-based education platforms, central banks, new composite material firms, etc. could find themselves net winners.
Also, for the sake of security-based self-sufficiency and to ensure employment for the lesser educated citizens (which are now on unemployment benefits), post-industrial economies would probably see moderate return and some innovation in older production industries that have been outsourced (e.g. steel, medicines, key foods' production).
Education (esp. machine-based & tertiary, in general) must restructure to meet the issue of unemployment and the demands of targetted employment in industries considered important to state's future economic prosperity. Better candidate selection (on an individual basis) is necessary.
AI will need to be developed in such a way as to:
- provide better (i.e. non-politically-driven, faster, more accurate) predictive modelling for future global health issues
- create effective health management strategies/ medicines, based on multiple factors (e.g. changing environmental conditions, population growth, key resource spending, frequent inter- and intra-generational mutations in the human genome).
:)
Most probable economic effects, some of whom already started: increase of unemployment and public deficit, increase of bankruptcies (bars, hotels, tourism sector in general), decrease in investment due to a lack of confidence in general, increase in productivity (intensity of work in a hour) motivated by a rationale of "catching up the pre-covid-19 economic state of affairs", economic appreciation of certain sectors (certain digitalized services in the cultural sector, e.g. music merchandizing) and companies (operators, data platforms, social networks etc..), increasing use of crowdfunding, reduction of consumption ratios, decrease in global trade via the erection of trade barriers (tariffs)...
Possible (political) solutions: Keynesian monetary policies (e.g. quantitative-easing) & inject liquidity, to keep the consumption going and simply give money to the poorest part of the populations or those who lost revenues to avoid an alternative 'pandemic'), re-directing financial flows towards green sectors with legislative tools at national and European level (for the EU-Eurozone).
But very urgently: immediate state guarantees that would "freeze" the economy and avoid losses (i.e. state bonds that would amount the losses since the beginning of confining measures, liquidity needed after to exchange those bonds under actual money) as it is, and wait until recovery to go on with more long-term policies (such as public-private investment, as mentionned).
the industries including tourism, airline and hospitality will also face the effect in coming future due to traveling restrictions and safety measures. However COVID-19 will provide gains for IT related industries and services, health care industry and food industry.
https://sdpi.org/publications/economic-impact-of-coronavirus-and-revival-measures-way-forward-for-pakistan/
I think the coming recession and widespread depression will have a profound effect on domestic violence. This to me is the darkest side of this COVID19.
GDP decline, reduction in job opportunities, global trade.
After lockdown, things will move on slow progress.
I think COVID19 will have the same repercussions as the great depression of 1930. In USA for instance the rate of Unemployment increased to 14%, the highest rate since 1930. Furtermore, the barriers between countries will return and the world will rethink the globalisation.
Paul: The pandemic will have significant negative effects on the economy. Unemployment will rise and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will fall. Additionally, government deficits will increase because the government will try to help the situation by increasing spending. Many people will lose their jobs. Household spending will decrease. Many businesses will file for bankruptcy or go under.
One good strategy is to purchase goods/services from local businesses and domestic companies.
Economy breakdown! Collective cooperative efforts are needed at different levels to comprnsate for the significant loss with governmental and private sectors support.
Usually, everybody focuses on the output, trade, and employment decreases. However, redistribution and fiscal gaps are wide implications of COVID19. This pandemic is a game-changer in terms of the balance game. We should always keep in our minds that the economy is very similar to water flow. Somewhere will be less water but somewhere will be more.
A massive economic slowdown is already there in our commercial sector, and we need extensive governmental financial packages, subsidies and timely help to micro industrial units along with poor farmers in this need of the hour.
Informal sector is facing bigger challenges as the lockdown and further restriction s are affecting the revenue flow. Similarly the workers in the informal sector are also being affecting and the millions are becoming either unemployed or on the verge of it.
The education system has paralyzed. The current mode of education is not organized as the system was not ready for the cricis. The bad scenario of the education system has created such a chain reaction that had hit the economy indirectly. The situation according to me will get more worsen in the comming days where the people will be falling short of money even for there basic needs. It is very essential for the government to intervene specially in the private sector. Unemployment and salary deductions is leading panic among the citizens.
Close of industriai sector, slow growth rate, increase in joblessness, impacts on education system.
Please review the following preprint:
Preprint Coronavirus (COVID-19) the environment is recovering and the...
The scale of the economic impact of the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic is still large. Currently (October 2020), the 2nd wave of the pandemic has already started, while in many countries the negative economic effects caused by the 1st wave of the pandemic in the 2nd quarter of 2020 are still present. On the other hand, with each subsequent month in the second quarter of 2020, the macroeconomic forecasts for determining the pace of economic growth for the entire current year gradually improved. The aforementioned changes consisting in the correction of these forecasts resulted from the unblocking of tourist services, the lifting of the lockdown in many economies during the tourist season and in connection with the applied public aid programs for commercially operating economic entities under the interventionist socio-economic policy, including the so-called Anti-crisis shields, the aim of which is to maintain the continuity of business entities, stop growing unemployment and stimulate economic activity, consumption and production. Best wishes,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
Dear László Vértesy the effect of the COVID-19 in terms of loss of human lives is priceless, but its impacts on the global economy and sustainable development scenarios are also disturbing. For instance, the IMF predicts that the world will enter into a recession worst than the Great Depression of 1930, with a preliminary estimation of the economic impact of the crisis at US$ 2 trillion.
One of the suggested solutions is based on the idea of the green recovery that could enhance the implementation of the SDGs to end poverty, protect our planet and ensure prosperity, rather than return to the former social patterns that would let us more vulnerable to future crises.
I would like to invite the participants to access on ResearchGate my latest publication about this topic: Book Post-COVID-19 Rebuilding Our Paradigms Through Sustainable D...
Kind regards,
Ernani Contipelli
What can be the major impacts of Coronavirus (COVID-19) on the economy
the impact of coronavirus on the economy is the economic decline and affected by the global economy, also increase unemployment that is caused by unable to purchase as many goods, it can contribute to lower spending and lower output
The most declining impact of the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) pandemic on the economy in many countries occurred in the second quarter of 2020, i.e. during the first wave of the pandemic and when almost the entire economy was locked down (except for key production segments) or when selected sectors of the economy, i.e. mainly service sectors and industries, where the provision of services takes place in a traditional formula, in the form of meetings of people in public places. These types of services, which were closed in many countries as part of a national or industry lockdown, include tourism, hotel, catering, cosmetology, hairdressing, fitness clubs, gyms, etc. take place already at the beginning of 2021 in connection with the commencement of the vaccination program of citizens with the use of highly effective vaccines against the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus. Symptoms of this improvement appeared in November 2020 on capital markets, including securities markets, when the pharmaceutical forms Pfizer and Moderna announced that they were completing testing work on highly effective vaccines against the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus (Covid-19 ) and plan to start mass production of vaccines in December 2020. If vaccination programs for citizens run smoothly in many countries and a large part of the population is vaccinated quickly, it is likely that in the second quarter of 2021 there will be a significant improvement in economic growth in many countries. If the current 2 and 3 waves of the Coronavirus pandemic expire by mid-2021 and the imposition of lockdowns on various sectors and sectors of the economy ends, the forecasted improvement in economic growth may take at least a few months longer and will lead many countries out of the recession in which they found themselves in 2020. Let us hope that this positive forecast scenario will materialize.
Regards,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
The impact of the Coronavirus on economic growth rates through its impact on the outputs of various sectors such as industry and commerce. Its effect was greatest on the tourism and oil sectors. It also led to an increase in the demand for medical and preventive supplies. This virus has caused an increase in unemployment and poverty rates. My theory is to pursue expansionary financial and monetary policies
Travel restrictions imposed to control the spread of pandemic has had a tremendous negative impact on the economies all around the world, of course to a varying degree. Some industries have been affected more severely than others, eg. Travel and Tourism. Industries that do well, notably are food & beverages and pharmaceuticals. How well countries can emerge out of this will depend on, how successfully countries can contain the spread of the disease.
It is time policy makers give priority to promote Import Substitution Industries, and also to ensure food security. Willingly or unwillingly countries may have to revert back to "Inward Looking" policies to some extent.
Please find attachment.
"ResearchGate -John P. Koeplin and Pasca Lélé Response to László Vértesy (Budapest University of Technology and Economics)" San Francisco (USA), 02/26/2021
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