In my monograph "Interaction in the lithosphere-hydrosphere system" a review of scientific articles on the topic of using the energy of earthquake preparation for the formation of cyclones was reviewed. This topic was studied in most detail in my article "Influence of the gas component of the fluid regime of the lithosphere in the water area on atmospheric processes". The article shows that the hydrogen and methane released from the lithosphere before an earthquake and the oxidation energy are sufficient to form a local cyclone.
I have proved that changes in the gravitational field are also able to form a local cyclone. Slide from the discussion "Is it possible to see how rapidly the Earth's gravitational field is changing by looking at how clouds move (with their help and without GRACE)?" attached.
In the discussion "The earthquake in Turkey is a consequence of planetary scale geodeformations. Is the concept of stress accumulation before an earthquake wrong?" I have shown the coincidence of the pleistoseist zone of the Turkish earthquake with the atmospheric pressure anomaly. Such an anomaly arises with an increase in air temperature and with a local decrease in gravity. Attached are the maps from the discussion.
Let's discuss some synoptic maps over the epicenter of the Turkish earthquake.
In my opinion, the rate of atmospheric pressure change over the epicenter is extremely (anomalously) high. 02/02/023 - 1005 hPa, 02/03/23 - 1025 hPa, 02/06/23 - 999 hPa. This is not typical for the physics of the atmosphere.
I ask you to take part in the discussion of weather forecasters.
Dear Borys Kapochkin ,
Congratulation to this excelent discussion Topic.
It will be shared in the next discussions:
https://www.researchgate.net/post/Exists-the-next-situation-when-an-outsider-researcher-who-has-achieved-a-very-encouraging-result-in-earthquake-forecasting-is-not-supported
and
https://www.researchgate.net/post/How-do-You-see-the-Earthquakes-Prediction-Forecast-or-Random-events
Regards,
Laszlo
Very interesting. As far as I know, powerful atmospheric cyclones are seriously considered by researchers as triggers of strong earthquake ruptures. This is not within the scope of my interests, but there are many publications on this topic. I am attaching a case of registration of the eddy movement of the earth's crust in the south of the North Island of New Zealand in connection with the Kaikoura M7.8 earthquake, 2016. Orange arrow shows the centre of the crustal cyclone in upper part of the Figure.
The article about lithospheric vortex - Article Model of the formation of marginal seas in the western Pacific Ocean
Dear All,
I have made a earthquake forecast at my discussion:
https://www.researchgate.net/post/Exists-the-next-situation-when-an-outsider-researcher-who-has-achieved-a-very-encouraging-result-in-earthquake-forecasting-is-not-supported/113
Iin which is mentioned name of Borys Kapochkin :
'We know well that In Ankara will held the next event:
'75. Türkiye Jeoloji Kurultayı' (75. Geological Congress Of Turkey http://tjk.jmo.org.tr/index.php?kod=150&lg=en)
I made a present to the participants (without any tools)
an earthquake forecasting to the actual seismic highly active zone.
Time windows: 72 hours: 2023-04-09 (am 12 CET- 2023-04-12 (am 12 Cet
Magnitude: M: +4.5 (the maxim I do not have oportinty. from here in Hungary it is impossible to say the maximum magnitude, but in Turkey it is possible... Probably Borys Kapochkin . or Alexandr Yagodin can tell you.
Location: can also be determined precisely, The accuracy is deppend of the place of determination.'
This forecast also answers the following question:
Is earthquake forecasting easy?
I wish you all a Blessed and Peaceful Easter!
Regards,
Laszlo
:
Dear All,
The result of earthquake forecasting (attached file !)
I lost the bet with my son because the earthquake forecast main aftershock was M: 4-3 ...
regardless of this, the earthquake forecast was successful [ second attached file].
.I have no intention of increasing the material of the monologue.
One thing that is interesting is that this earthquake forecast has not received criticism.
This means that there is something wrong with earthquake forecasters.
I really have a lot to say, but there is no interest in it... T
Regards,
Laszlo
As part of our discussion, online earthquake forecasts appeared. This is an amazing and long-awaited event that should be supported by all participants in the discussion.
I present to you an online assessment of geodeformation activity in Europe. Look at today's satellite image of Europe in the region of Italy http://en.sat24.com/en/eu/infraPolair. A fixed band of cloudiness appeared in the atmosphere. It is in the air flow and does not move. This is a manifestation of the tilt of the tectonic block (spatial scale 280 km). The conclusion is based on my patent "Method of detecting places of maximum amplitudes of fast vertical movements of the earth's surface". Spatial position of the block on the second image. The southwestern side of the block sank down. The force of gravity in this place has decreased. The air in this place began to weigh less (rose up) and the gravitational anomaly appeared in the cloud field. In motion (animation) it can be seen at the link
https://meteologix.com/ua/satellite/italy/satellite-infrared-15min.html#play-0-95-5.
Let's see if the activation of the deformation process in Europe will lead to an earthquake in 3.5 or 7 days. The location of the earthquake is not known, but it is not in Italy.
Dear Borys Kapochkin ,
Once again you have made a valuable presentation (there are observations in it that enlarge to my knowledge): 'he southwestern side of the block sank down. The force of gravity in this place has decreased. The air in this place began to weigh less (rose up) and the gravitational anomaly appeared in the cloud field.'
' '
... You did not mentioned the magnitude [onto your pictures we may have 3.8-5.5]... And if we have proper determination... we have to know the preciss location of earthquake... Your market zone is correct: Croatia or Central Itally... The Croatia place we do not have information [how the energy is acumulated, and etc.] The time windows can be marked in two reduced time window...
Regards,
Laszlo
Today 10:35. Online information about the geodeformation field of Europe. Data from https://www.sat24.com. Spain. Vertical movements of two blocks of 140 km scale. Start 06:45. I wonder what the European permanent network will show https://epncb.oma.be/
It is important to trace the tides in the solid body of the Earth. See my discussion thread "Ocean tides and deformations of the Earth's surface of tidal origin have different physics of the process. Why?".
Geodeformations in Italy occurred on April 13, when the speed of rotation of the Earth is maximum and the planet has the shape of a sphere. The tide has a period of 14 days. The situation will repeat on April 27. On April 20, the Earth will have the shape of an ellipsoid of rotation (the angular velocity of rotation will be minimal). See the graphic from my discussion "In 1998 there was El Niño and there was an unprecedented change in the shape of the Earth. What is the reason for the 1 degree rise in temperature?".
Today 17:15. Online information about the geodeformation field of Europe. Data from https://www.sat24.com. Spain. Vertical movements of one block of 140 km scale.
Today. Online information about the geodeformation field of Europe. Data from https://www.sat24.com. Spain. Vertical movements of one block of 140 km scale. Start yesterday 19:45. Attached is the microseismicity map. https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/
IIt's hard to do a blind, earthquake prediction:
My previous forecast
'(..) [onto your pictures we may have 3.8-5.5]... And if we have proper determination... we have to know the preciss location of earthquake... Your market zone is correct: Croatia or Central Itally.'
, based on Borys Kapochkin' s data, turned out pretty well (attached file)
Central Italy: same worked well the earthquake forecasting, but only minimal farshacks happened. The place of bigger shock is well marked by the minimal shacks.
In case of 'Croatia' It happened exactly as expected...
Artificial intelligence could be used to solve this kind of problem, and errors due to subjectivity could be eliminated.
I cannot comment on the Spanish situation, I am monitoring the shared data... and their interpretation
Regards,
Laszló
Yesterday. Information about the geodeformation field of Europe. Data from https://www.sat24.com. Movements have not stopped.
Today.
Online information about the geodeformation field of Europe. Everything froze.
Earthquakes predict changes in groundwater levels. Read "The global endodrainage system: Some fluid-physical mechanisms of geodynamic processes
April 2019Geodynamics & Tectonophysics 10(1)
DOI: 10.5800/GT-2019-10-1-0404
LicenseCC BY
Genrikh Vartanyan"
Over the past three days, several regions have been unexpectedly flooded in Ukraine - Photo. Internet information.
Today. Online information about the geodeformation field of Europe. Data from https://www.sat24.com. Let's look at Iceland. Start yesterday 05:00.
This is a very logic, interesting and very usefull research. Iam physical geographier, primary geomorphologist especially morfotectonic deserve my interest. For example in my country Bosnia nad Herzegovinia, in structral-facial megaunit Dinarides (geologicaly) or Dinaric mountain system (geomorphologicaly), existed fault "Iliđža- Busovača"( part of fault system Sarajevo-Jajce) with two spas -Iliđža spa and Kiseljak spa. The mentioned fault trace long about 45 km with the occurrences of thermal and mineral waters (possible gasses). Numerous springs, such as the one on Ilidža with a temperature of 57 Celsius, bitter sulphurous, medicinal water. Spa Kiseljak with mineral water, etc.
Therefore, faults play a very important role in the flow of fluids from the interior of the Earth, both gases and thermal mineral waters. Of course, I fully support my colleague that the increased influx of gases can affect local atmospheric dynamics and energetics and thereby predict an earthquake.
Meteorologicaly"Island depression" above land of Iceland whom he cuts active fault system of the litospheric tectonic border of Northamerican megaplatte and Euroasian megaplatte is a logical. Its neotectonicaly active fault system with the occurrences of the active volcanoes and post vulcano activities, active geysers etc..) .
On time more My support in your researching valuabling for human race.
Today. Online information about the geodeformation field of Europe. Data from https://www.sat24.com. Iceland...
Today. Information about the geodeformation field of Europe.
Let's look at the influence of plate tectonics on the movements of tectonic blocks in Europe.
On April 17, geodeformations in Europe subsided.
During such periods, compression begins and, as a result, bursting deformations - earthquakes. Let's take a look at the spreading in the mid-ocean ridge region in the North Atlantic starting from April 13 (the date we started our study). Map and table attached. https://www.emsc-csem.org/
Уважаемый s. N. Mulev ,
Мы не можем быть уверены в правильности следующего подхода:
- Землетрясения становятся все более трудно предсказуемыми по мере увеличения глубины гипоцентра. Особенно трудно будет определить фактор времени... Однако комбинированный метод прогнозирования землетрясений (детерминистический и статистический) может сильно помочь в этом деле...
--
We cannot be sure if the next approach is good:
- Earthquakes become more and more difficult to predict as the depth of the hypocenter increases. Especially the time factor will be difficult to determine... However, a combined earthquake forecasting method (deterministic and statistical) can help a lot on this.
Искренне,
Laszlo
The time has come for the anomalous height of the tide in the solid body of the Earth. In addition, now the planet is more ellipsoid than a spheroid (now there is a two-week minimum of the planet's angular velocity). The surface area of the Earth has become larger everywhere, except for the strip along the north and south latitude of 35 degrees. Let's see where warm cyclones formed (look at the arrows on the map). https://meteopost.com/weather/pressure/
There have been very rare seismic events in aseismic areas (look at the arrows). Moreover, two anomalous earthquakes are synchronized in time. https://www.emsc-csem.org/ What is this process?
Let's see where the air began to weigh less and convection took place.
https://meteopost.com/weather/convection/
Dear All:
Our 'game' is getting interesting... I think we have some excellent material in our discoursion...
https://www.researchgate.net/post/Exists-the-next-situation-when-an-outsider-researcher-who-has-achieved-a-very-encouraging-result-in-earthquake-forecasting-is-not-supported
'potential quake >5 next days in Romania
vortex anomaly + his attached file '- It was send By Dan Grigore .. Looks good- I hope the Craiova people will not suffer the Max shock will be M: 3,6-5.2
The situition is similar in Central Greece but there the Maxim shock : 2.9-4.2 theseismic process is under excalation, but from here we do not know what is the place (local) potential considering the ancient Chinese ( Dao two hand rule), and of course the global situation (see the three posts: of Borys Kapochkin
Regards,
Laszlo
If geodeformations appear, this does not mean that an earthquake is inevitable. This means that the forces necessary to generate an earthquake have begun to act. The presence of force does not guarantee the generation of a rupture of the planet's solid shell.
Earlier I talked about earthquakes that change the structure of the planet's solid shell. If we are talking about destructive earthquakes in Romania, then their epicenter is in the mantle (Vrancea zone). These are other processes. They predict differently. I don't know what a mantle earthquake is. Nobody knows the physics of an earthquake in a liquid medium.
The peak of the amplitude of geodeformations in the solid body of the earth passed this morning. It has been associated with the syzygy tide amid an increase in the Earth's surface area. The deformations that we recorded over the past week ended with a syzygy earthquake shown on the map (M more than 4).
I hope that there are reasons to rejoice at such a result of the development of the geodeformation process in Europe.
Today. Online information about the geodeformation field of Europe. Data from https://www.sat24.com. Мovements of one & one block of 140 & 280 km scale.
Yes !
Presentation THE LINEAR CIRRUS CLOUD, POLE TO POLE, AN EFFECT OF THE EART...
I did not followed the sat image after yesterday morning. Borys Kapochkin in you you were right. Now looking at the events and the forecast, it would have been good to blow yesterday before lunch... My own correct of EF wasn't bad, because happened an earthquake in central Greece (attached photo:
with few minutes after sending the post: (attached file)
The text was:
'The situition is similar in Central Greece but there the Maxim shock : 2.9-4.2 theseismic process is under excalation, but from here we do not know what is the place (local) potential considering the ancient Chinese ( Dao two hand rule'
The event:
'MagnitudeML 3.2RegionGREECEDate time2023-04-20 04:57:44.0 UTCLocation40.01 N ; 21.42 EDepth10 km'
https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=1251966
The time of CET (Summer) is differen with two hours from UTC
(seccond attched file)
Regards,
Laszlo
Magnitude Mw 5.5
Region CENTRAL MEDITERRANEAN SEA
Date time 2023-04-21 22:19:48.7 UTC
Location 34.95 N ; 15.25 E
Depth 10 km
There is a chance to find interesting data in yesterday's archives.
In water areas, positive temperature anomalies are unlikely. Cause. At a depth, the water in the Mediterranean Sea is 13 degrees and when the water rises from the depths to the surface, a negative temperature anomaly can be expected.
In shallow water, a change in the optical characteristics of water can be expected.
22-23.04.2023i. Online information about the geodeformation field of Europe. Data from the site https://www.sat24.com. Access to archival images is limited for me. Manifestations of geodeformations have not been found.
Dear Borys Kapochkin ,
Try to use others computers from what which the https://www.sat24.com. were not used...I am collecting information with such a method from other online sourse....
The using of https://www.sat24.com. I do not know well,.
Where to try to find Online information about the geodeformation field of Europe
Reg Laszlo
Formally, geodeformations are recorded in Europe https://epncb.eu/. However, this system for many years showed geodeformation data averaged over a week. I have proven that this cannot be done. Since 2006, they began to show data averaged per day. The site has now been updated. I have an opinion that a high-frequency trap filter is used. I don't know for sure, but as a result of the earthquake in Turkey on February 6, the daily shift in latitude was only 2.3 cm. See the discussion "Turkish catastrophe and danger of aftershocks. There is no aftershock theory, but the second strong shock on February 6 was inevitable? "
I wasn't able to open the data for every hour. Average daily data is available not earlier than in a month.
04/24/2023i. Online information about the geodeformation field of Europe. Data from the site https://www.sat24.com. I saw two different activations of the geodeformations. The time step corresponds to the semidiurnal tide (sectoral deformations) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth_tide.
On April 24, 2023, 3.5 days after the solar eclipse on April 20, 2023, an earthquake was recorded approximately in the zone of its gravitational maximum (map attached https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:SE2023Apr20H.png?uselang=ru)
Magnitude Mw 7.1
Region KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
Date time 2023-04-24 00:41:56.5 UTC
Location 29.92 S ; 177.80W
Depth 40 km
Something similar happened in 1999 (catastrophic earthquake) after a solar eclipse over Turkey in 1999.
I propose to watch a fragment of their discussion topic "Devastating earthquake in Turkey. Influence of aseismic geodeformations on the collapse of buildings without seismic shocks. How does this happen?"
I will give an example of the earthquake in Turkey on August 17, 1999. Deformations in the stretching phase, which occur every 7 days, anomalously manifested themselves on August 11-13 and 19-21, 1999. (Graph attached. The date of the earthquake in Turkey is shown in red, and the number of breaks in the pipeline network in the city of Odesa is shown in green.The earthquake occurred during the compression phase - August 17, 1999). ) Geodeformations manifested planetary. The onset of deformations in the stretching phase was provoked by the syzygy on August 11. This is the date of the total solar eclipse. Attached the trajectory of the solar eclipse (map from the Internet).
04/24/2023i. Online information about the geodeformation field of Europe. Data from the site https://www.sat24.com.
I don't understand the predictive powers due to the causality sequence. If an earthquake causes release of trapped gasses leading to cyclones, isn't that too late to predict the earthquake?
Dear Paul Pukite ,
The question is good.
There are no predictive povers... only natural condition which can get in such a stage which leads to earthquakes happening. The earthquake characters depends of the local and global conditions.
'If an earthquake causes release of trapped gasses leading to cyclones, isn't that too late to predict the earthquake?'- the reale of traped gases forming cyclones gaves information to the local and global situations... Who has no instrumentation, he must learn from book of the Natural Laws.
Anyone who understands this relationship well can predict an earthquake very well, if he has the necessary information and the requested technical conditions.
Borys Kapochkin has these skills. He revealed a lot of good secrets.
One thing may bother us: he gave too much importance to the eclipse.
Regards,
Laszlo
I don't write about earthquake prediction technology. My task is to show the obvious facts. Strong earthquakes, only in the form of waves, manifest energy in the billions of megajoules. For the formation of the seismic phenomenon as a whole, even more energy comes out. This energy cannot be "hidden". It manifests itself in various physical fields, gravitational, thermal, hydrogeodynamic, electromagnetic... The temperature in the hypocenter, and hence the strength of the earthquake, can be determined by the chemical composition of the fluids that are released before the earthquake. These are obvious scientific paradigms. But when they have in mind the short-term forecast of an earthquake, they prefer to argue that the forecast is scientifically unattainable by definition. The lead time of an earthquake forecast with some probability is useful if it is not longer than 2-3 days and if it is not less than 10 seconds. I think you agree with me.
If the forecast is deterministic (probability 100%), then it can be useful even with a lead time of 20 years.
In this discussion, I am trying to comment online on changes in the field of geodeformations of the earth's surface. This is not an earthquake forecast. This is a forecast of places where earthquakes are unlikely. When we fix manifestations of geodeformations, earthquakes are unlikely. Thus, approximately 200 days a year, we can not be afraid of earthquakes.
Is this already a good result?
I propose to add an operational analysis of seismic manifestations. In the last three days, we have been experiencing the process of shifting the northern hemisphere relative to the southern hemisphere of our planet. The toroidal displacements of our planet are shown in a picture from the Internet. They are manifested by earthquakes at the equator along transform faults. See the map https://www.emsc-csem.org/. Usually there are no more than 2-3 such earthquakes with a magnitude of more than 4 per day. April 22, 2023 there were 9, and yesterday 8.
This is the second-ranking geodynamic process. Plate tectonics is one rank lower. Toroidal movements "do not notice" that the solid shell of the planet is represented by tectonic plates. They "cut" tectonic plates along transform faults. This process is shaped by external forces, and the short-term increase in these forces during eclipses is worthy of study.
Full Moon and New Moon: maximum risk period = +- 2 days
Solar eclipse and lunar eclipse: maximum risk period = +- 2 weeks
Draga Valentin Constantin Furnica ,
Daca accept ce ai scris in sensul aceia exemplu 03 Mai. 2023 Maximum risk period= + - 2 zile pentru un M:+5.8 cutremure de pamint
si acelasi timp maximum risk period = +- 2 saptamini pentru minimum 20 de cutremuri de pamint M: +5.7
Cu stima Laszlo
today. Online information about the geodeformation field of Europe. Data from https://www.sat24.com. I fix three independent activations of geodeformations. Is the geodefloration wave directed from west to east? Spain first, Georgia last?
Тoday. Online information about the geodeformation field of Europe. Data from https://www.wetterzentrale.de/. The activation of geodeformations in Georgia ended at 10:30 on April 26, 2023 and resumed 12 hours later at 22:30. Today, movements began in the north of Norway.
What does it characterize? I think this shows that there are enough forces to generate geodeformations. These forces have a global (planetary) scale. Regions where external forces generate geodeformations are shown.
Usually, in places where geodeformations are manifested, earthquakes as breaks in the geological environment are not provoked.
Dear Valentin Constantin Furnica.
I hope you have your comment.
Magnitude Mw 5.1
Region DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE
Date time 2023-04-26 20:00:35.2 UTC
Location 36.34 N ; 26.39 E
Depth122 km
Let's list the facts.
1. Earthquake in the Earth's mantle. Has nothing to do with the block structure of the solid shell of the planet???
2. Linear form of clouds 2400 km long. The epicenter is on its continuation. Geological structures of this magnitude exist.
3. The linear zone is not developed in the epicentral zone.
4. There are other linear cloud forms.
5. The linear shape formed less than a day before the earthquake.
Assumptions.
1. The structure of the solid shell of the Earth has a divisibility with an azimuth of 347 degrees. The linear form of clouds is directed at an angle of 347 degrees.
2. The reason for the linear form of clouds can be gravitational or thermal. It is likely that this is a gravitational step, as it blocked the movement of air masses from west to east.
???
We look at the synoptic map. Above the epicenter of the earthquake is a zone of low air pressure. Link to https://meteopost.com/weather/pressure/
Low pressure over oceans result in the inverse barometer effect, which is to raise the sea level below the region of low pressure.
https://sealevel.nasa.gov/news/52/neglected-effects-might-influence-sea-level
Via physics, the solid ground also responds to the low pressure but can only relieve the stress through a very slight strain displacement. However, the slight stress might be enough to trigger a fault. Who knows?
There are experts who believe that tropical cyclones provoke earthquakes. I tried to convince them otherwise in the article "Influence of the gas component of the fluid regime of the lithosphere in the water area on atmospheric processes".
In addition, I believe that countering the force of gravity is not effective. The application of force in the horizontal plane is more effective. I measured changes in the force of gravity during sunrise during a solar eclipse and recorded two intense short-term anomalies of different signs. During the appearance of additional mass on the horizon, horizontal stresses occur.
Discussion topic.
Look at it. Yesterday's mantle earthquake in Romania occurred at sunrise. Does this require research?
Dear Borys Kapochkin ,
In the example you mentioned, you are most likely right, because the hypocenter is quite deep (attched file). But in case of earhquakes with hypocentre around of Conrad discontinuity (above it) we have to consider Sun activity, cyclones effects to the seismic activity in mentioned deep..
Regards,
Laszlo
In my monograph "Geodynamics. Fundamentals of dynamic geodesy" I wrote that
-"Many scientists are looking for statistical connections between solar activity and seismic and volcanic activity of the Earth. In our opinion, this is meaningless, since the processes on the Sun and the Earth are most likely not connected by cause-and-effect relationships. The Sun and the Earth simultaneously react to changes in the third factor ( external)."
- "The coincidence of the position of the Sun with the barycenter of the Solar System is energetically optimal. Nevertheless, it is possible to see that at the beginning of the 21st century, the Sun was at the maximum distance from the center of the Solar System and was characterized by a high intensity of radiation, that is, the Solar System (apparently, the Earth is also number) was in an excited state."
I am now writing my article on graviton:
Research Proposal Physico-metaphysical proof of the existence of graviton (Fiz...
In principle, the material is., is an original approach to understanding our nature and its processes ...
Accordingly, only two entities have a role in Earth events: the Sun and the Earth itself
simple proof of this statement: the biosphere's phenomenon.
You can find proves at Valentino Straser ' works... I didn't believe in these writings before. But the formulation of the metaphysical concept of the apriory entity (for describing the universe on all level) convinced me that he pointed out the good things...
Regards,
Laszlo
Yesterday and Today. Online information about the geodeformation field of Europe. Data from https://www.wetterzentrale.de/ https://www.sat24.com/. Forces for generating geodeformations were sufficient both yesterday and today.
Borys Kapochkin : "The Sun and the Earth simultaneously react to changes in the third factor ( external)"
Yet, the Moon only impacts the Earth and has no impact on the Sun.
Today. Online information about the geodeformation field of Europe. Data from https://www.wetterzentrale.de/ https://www.sat24.com/. Forces for generating geodeformations were sufficient both yesterday and today.
On the night of April 26 to 27, an underground gas leak was recorded in Ukraine (Carpathians, Lviv region). On April 28, the gas leak stopped. https://lenta.ua/na-lvivshchini-cherez-vitik-gazu-utvorilisya-geyzeri-137820/ Because of this, "geysers" were formed.
Dear Borys Kapochkin ,
Do you have the coordinates of the place:'On the night of April 26 to 27, an underground gas leak was recorded in Ukraine (Carpathians, Lviv region).
On April 28, the gas leak stoppe' In finish of September 2023. I was Ucraine.I went to your country from Romania (Máramarossziget : First map.
I have sensation that the zone has natural gas (Hydrocarbon resources) After then home I found the next information: (https://www.energy-cg.com/UkraineAtRisk.html and see their photo: is in the fish part) and another photo( http://globalshift.co.uk/ukraexp.html) (second file)
At the EMSC is registered two earthquakes:
https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=1254801
Magnitude ML 2.2 RegionUKRAINE Date time2023-04-27 10:34:53.3 UTCLocation48.50 N ; 24.51 EDepth3 km
(attached photo made by me with help of GOOGLE)
This Earthquake is related to your last comment!
'В ніч з 26 на 27 квітня у селі Розвадів Стрийського району стався витік газу
28 квітня витік припинився. На території шести домогосподарств природний газ виходив з під-землі. Через це утворилися своєрідні "гейзери". [On the night of 26-27 April, a gas leak occurred in the village of Rozvadiv, Stryi district
On 28 April, the leakage stopped. In six households, natural gas was coming out of the ground. This caused the formation of a kind of "geysers".]
There we can observe why the Earthquake forecasting is bagatelised!
Thank you for the important information!
Regards,
Laszlo
I wish you a Happy Weekend!
I patented a method of forecasting earthquakes in which changes in the formula of hydrocarbon gases must occur before an earthquake. Methane comes out first, then ethane should appear, then ethylene, then propylene... the "heavier" the methane homologue is, the higher the temperature in the hypocenter and the stronger the earthquake will be. This method assumes a change in the composition of the gas under the influence of temperature.
Methane emissions can occur during the stretching of the earth's crust from a gas trap - a deposit. In this case, it characterizes the process of manifestation of geodeformations, not an earthquake.
There is indeed much to learn from you Borys ( Borys Kapochkin ),
Not always is need to wait for intuition..
Once again you have shared a secret that many people didn't know (I did not have this idea!!!)
... What you have written here again is very logical and of great importance.
It is very surprising ! That no one really cares...
However, there is a note only to the finish sentence of the quoted paragraph:
'I patented a method of forecasting earthquakes in which changes in the formula of hydrocarbon gases must occur before an earthquake. Methane comes out first, then ethane should appear, then ethylene, then propylene... the "heavier" the methane homologue is, the higher the temperature in the hypocenter and the stronger the earthquake will be. This method assumes a change in the composition of the gas under the influence of temperature.'
Not enough to determine the parameters of the earthquake. But surely if you have developed such a forecasting method have you thought of other things.
Sorry, but I don't see the point in contributing more intelectively: because there doesn't seem to be much of a reaction to my previous comment. You see I'm not have any protected resolution, I know what happened in the mentioned situation.
Apropo, have you have reached a deal with the Turks?
Regards,
Laszlo
Dear László Attila Horváth.
The location of the gas release corresponds to the publication. I think the gas release area covers a larger region. Methane is odorless and is manifested only in water areas - bubbles, and is invisible on land.
For you, I translated part of my publication.
Article "Influence of the gas component of the fluid regime of the lithosphere in the water area on atmospheric process".
"Let's consider the results of monitoring gas emanations over a submarine source in the Pacific region with sampling in the bottom layer three times a day, degassing and gas chromatography for hydrocarbon gases. Figures (8.a-d) show changes in concentrations of dissolved methane, ethane and ethylene, propane and propylene, butane and isobutane.
Gas emanations in December 1995 - January 1996 possibly associated with the eruption of the Karymsky volcano (located 130 km away). In connection with volcanic manifestations in the region, there was an emanation of heavy hydrocarbon gases, mainly butane and isobutane. The composition of gases during this period is different compared to 1994–1995. The figures show that in 1994-1995. methane emanation continued for months. Emanations of unsaturated ethylene and propylene methane homologues, as well as butane and isobutane, could also last for a long period (up to a month).
It is important to note that similar processes took place in Europe. On September 14, 1994, the beaches of Odessa (Ukraine) began an unprecedented visual emanation of gases, which lasted several months. Samples of free methane were taken and estimates were obtained - up to 50 m3/m2 per day. As in the Kamchatka region, the emanations of deep gases were not associated with seismic manifestations.
Synchronous releases of methane and its homologues in 1994–1995. in different geographical areas are explained by geodeformations on a global scale, manifested in a decrease in the angular velocity of the Earth's rotation (this is due to an increase in the surface area of the Planet).
Gas releases can also occur before earthquakes.
Earthquake example:
Magnitude Mw 5.7
Region ROMANIA
Date time 2016-09-23 23:11:20.2 UTC
Location 45.71N ; 26.62 E
Depth 92 km
Before this earthquake, gas bubbles were recorded on the beach of Odessa (Ukraine). It turned out that this process was more extensive. I attached a map of recorded gas outlets into the sea and an example of a sonogram.
Dear Borys Kapochkin ,
Thank you very much for what you translated for me... It's rare that you get a description with such good descriptions. Congratulations!... I'd like to read it, if it's in Russian, if it's in Ukrainian (if possible), because deepl-translate and google-translate translate relatively well... the original text. I have seven years of experience in hydrocarbon research (one years (aproxmate one years in instrument cabin) that is why, I understand the importance of your work.
What do you know about the release of He2, H2 and O2...
And have you received any awards for your work?
I am sure your idea worked in the case of Turkey (06.02.2023), and Dursun Acar has right that perhaps we together... We would be able to predict a similar earthquake... No doubt, you have much more experience like me in earthquake forecasting... One thing that is very valuable is that we have developed our own concepts independently of each other. Therefore, combining the two concepts would certainly be a better concept... The only problem is that I live in difficult financial circumstances, I can't allow myself full disclosure.
The comments on the examples you have given are correct:
'Gas emanations in December 1995 - January 1996 possibly associated with the eruption of the Karymsky volcano (located 130 km away). In connection with volcanic manifestations in the region, there was an emanation of heavy hydrocarbon gases, mainly butane and isobutane. (...)'
'It is important to note that similar processes took place in Europe. On September 14, 1994, the beaches of Odessa (Ukraine) began an unprecedented visual emanation of gases, which lasted several months. Samples of free methane were taken and estimates were obtained - up to 50 m3/m2 per day. As in the Kamchatka region, the emanations of deep gases were not associated with seismic manifestations.'-In this case I do not know whether correlation is real or coincidence... Should be good for me a more closely look at my model.
'Before this earthquake, gas bubbles were recorded on the beach of Odessa (Ukraine). It turned out that this process was more extensive. I attached a map of recorded gas outlets into the sea and an example of a sonogram.'-Even in this case, it can be accepted that the link is obvious... And your method, applicable to earthquake prediction in the Vrancea zone.
Regards,
Laszlo
I have forgotten... and what is the actual situation! because exists big possibility for minimum one Earthquake M: +5.7 for Europe (Mediterranean-Turkish_ Greece Region? In Month May 2023, mentally forecast, and only true this forecast if you can prove it with your data,,, and needs other circumstance to be satisfied is part of short time prediction.
Magnitude mb 5.0
Region SOUTHERN ITALY
Date time 2023-05-01 02:41:26.5 UTC
Location 39.45 N ; 15.46 E Depth254 km
Another earthquake in the Earth's mantle.
Again at the moment of action of gravity in the horizontal plane - Sunset.
https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=1256201#map
01052023 Cyclone over the epicenter of the earthquake
https://www.emsc-csem.org/
https://meteologix.com/
What do you think would be the maximum depth for the degasification of a geological structure?
May be the phenomenon of dilatancy a cause of the removal of the gases contained ?
No one knows for sure. It is believed that hydrogen comes from the Earth's core and if it does not meet carbon-containing rocks on the way, it "flies off" into outer space. If it interacts with carbon (at a certain pressure and/or temperature), CH4 is formed, which enters the Earth's atmosphere. Dilatancy contributes to the release of gases into the atmosphere.
Today. Online information about the geodeformation field of Europe. Data from https://www.wetterzentrale.de/ https://www.sat24.com/.
Сегодня 3 мая изменение силы тяжести в районе острова Крит (тектонический блок масштаба 140 км ориентация 270-90 градусов). https://www.wetterzentrale.de/ Вчера такой же блок - ориентация 0-180 градусов (западная Украина). Ждем важные изменения 5 мая.
Magnitude mb 4.5
Region NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
Date time 2023-05-02 22:33:49.4 UTC
Location 30.51 N ; 41.91 W
Depth 10 km
On May 2, at sunset, plate tectonics became active in the North Atlantic. This is an increase in gravitational stress in the horizontal plane. Unusual for spreading???
Тoday 04052023. Online information about the geodeformation field of Europe. Data from https://www.sat24.com https://www.wetterzentrale.de/.
WHY ALL EARTHQUAKES AT SUNRISE AND SUNSET?
Magnitude ML 4.2
Region WESTERN TURKEY
Date time 2023-05-04 01:50:00.2 UTC
Location 40.42 N ; 26.18 E
Depth 5 km
Тoday 05052023. Online information about the geodeformation field of Europe. Data from https://www.sat24.com https://www.wetterzentrale.de/ https://meteopost.com/weather/wind/.
External forces on a planetary scale are active. Today is a lunar eclipse. Geodeformations in Europe are blocked. It's probably compression. A cyclone has formed over Cyprus and has low pressure but no wind??? In the sea before an earthquake, temperature anomalies in the spring are poorly manifested.
https://meteopost.com
The pressure over the sea is falling???
Does anyone see dangers elsewhere???
Eclipse in a few hours...
The cyclone in the area of Cyprus "unwound", although heat emissions continued in the form of convective clouds. Intramass convective cloudiness inside a cyclone is theoretically impossible. These are different processes. But the criterion of truth is practice. Look at the satellite image in the region of northeastern Turkey. Convection began at 23 hours GMT.
Conclusion. The formation of an unusual atmospheric phenomenon does not necessarily reflect the process of earthquake preparation. This factor is necessary but not sufficient for the formation of an earthquake. Data https://meteologix.com/ https://meteopost.com/
Perhaps my texts are not convincing? Let's discuss.
The stresses excited in the earth's crust by the lunar eclipse will decrease in amplitude for another three days. Yesterday, plate tectonics in the North Atlantic became active at sunset. https://www.emsc-csem.org/. In the future, it is likely that the activation of seismicity at sunrise and sunset will not be typical.
It became possible to find out when there were actually periods of compression, and when there were periods of extension in the solid shell of the Earth. Theoretically, this is 3.5 and 7 days.
Baseline earthquake in the area of the island of Crete.
Tectonic compression:
Magnitude mb 4.5
Region CRETE, GREECE
Date time 2023-05-06 14:43:24.8 UTC
Location 34.92N ; 23.46 E
Depth 52 km
Previous land surface stretch in the Crete area May 3, 2003 1:30 am.
Between stretching on May 3 and compression on May 6, 3.5 days.
Looking onto your link six placec over 4.5 earthquake will happen over M. 4.5 earthquake, this in two places 'IWe can be near absolutly sure' that will happen these earthquakes... One two places is very easy and will be over M:+5... The earthquakes are made onto base of your method ( Borys Kapochkin ) combained with an first mental discovery, which helped me to be capabil to do earthquake forecasting only 1 years after its discovery!
Regards,
Laszlo
P.S.. ?
I did not understand the question. In my comments, I fix the dynamics of geodeformations. This is the diagnosis of the geodynamic setting. A forecast is when they write about what will happen in the future. To predict earthquakes using my technology, it is necessary to organize special measurements, their mathematical processing ... I did not write anything about when, where and what strength an earthquake will occur.
The questions were as follows:
Is earthquake forecasting easy?
My response:
If we know the phenomenon its prolog, yes of course.
The next queston:
Can the formation of a cyclone be considered scientifically a harbinger of a catastrophic earthquake in Turkey?
The response is again easy:
A cyclone is one of the consequences, an earthquake is another consequence of the phenomenon, as a result of which a 'sometimes' large earthquake can occur in Turkey.
How many cyclones occur in Turkey in a year and how many catastrophic earthquakes?
The number of catastrophic earthquakes is not equal to the number of cyclones.
The number of cyclones is much, much higher than the number of catastrophic earthquakes...
Я зробив свою попередню відповідь на основі цих відповідей!
A korábbi válaszomat ezen válaszok alapján készítettem!
I made my previous answer based on these answers!
Я сделал свой предыдущий ответ на основе этих ответов!
我根據這些答案做了我以前的答案！
So what follows?...
---
Here isthe this comment postcript:
A 1-2 day training at Schlumberger costs 2000 USD? Why should a knowledge that saves so many lives be free?
Why don't the two of us do such a course, and if 10 people from each major country apply, then we'll share our knowledge?
These people would get more than a slumberger course from the two of us!
Could we also ask this in a question or discussio.
The Ancient Man was smarter than us!
Why?
Because he joined forces when he wanted to defeat the saber-toothed tigers or mammoths.
Today, we want to defeat the mammoths or the saber-toothed tiger (smilodont) by fighting each other.
Regards,
Laszlo
The photo origine:
https://www.dkfindout.com/us/dinosaurs-and-prehistoric-life/prehistoric-mammals/smilodon/
https://www.dkfindout.com/us/quiz/dinosaurs-and-prehistoric-life/prehistoric-mammals-quiz/
https://www.mql5.com/en/blogs/post/752584
The Sunday night earthquake forecast was successful!
'Looking onto your link six placec over 4.5 earthquake will happen over M. 4.5 earthquake, this in two places 'IWe can be near absolutly sure' that will happen these earthquakes... One two places is very easy and will be over M:+5.' -
This statement was proven by nature.
There was a beauty mistake: ' In one area earthquake occurred 6 hours later... The reason for the delay was obvious...
Regards,
Laszlo
About the processes at sunrise and sunset.
Perhaps someone will be curious.
Many years ago, during one of the solar eclipses, I conducted an experiment. The experiment lasted 24 hours. It was attended by 15 people. At the same time intervals, measurements of the medical characteristics of people were carried out and psychological tests were performed. Each participant conducted a session of the TETRIS computer game and recorded digital results. Time measurements of gravity were measured.
The study was commissioned by the police. They were interested in the anomalous number of car accidents in areas where roads cross with active tectonic faults. The place of the experiment is the Main Odessa Fault (Odessa on the sea sand spit). This fault is characterized by the absence of a granitic layer in the earth's crust (only sedimentary and basalt layers), the strongest magnetic anomaly in Ukraine, and the hypersaline Kuyalnik Lake runs along the fault.
I analyzed the measurements of the change in gravity at the moment of the eclipse of the Sun and during the rising of the Sun and the Moon above the horizon together (horizontal stresses arise when additional mass appears on the horizon.). In both cases, I recorded two short-term but intense gravity anomalies of different signs. No other gravity anomalies were recorded during the experiment. After a negative anomaly, a positive one was immediately recorded. But this is not the main thing.
I had reason to believe that changes in the perception of the duration of time were recorded. During the first anomaly, none of the participants managed to complete the complex of the experiment on time. Immediately after that, in the next cycle, after the complex of experiments, a very large amount of time remained. These are subjective feelings. But there are also objective results. I will describe the results of the game in TETRIS. Throughout the experiment, the numerical result of the game was 2000 points with a spread of at least 150. During the negative anomaly of the gravitational field, the result was 0. During the positive gravitational anomaly (during the next game), the result was 4800. This was recorded both during the eclipse and a few hours later during the sunrise and the moon over the horizon.
Dear Borys Kapochkin ,
Thank you again that you have shared an very inportant information!
2009- I published an article on gravity... although I approach this problem from a different angle...
Here is the article:
Article Tényekkel igazolható a gravitáció valós oka
(The gravity can be demonstrated with fact) To your quastion is relevant the parts with tides...but this situation is not discussed in the article...The experiment shared now confirms the theory of gravity that was formulated at that time.
I now have a much better form of the theory:
Research Proposal Physico-metaphysical proof of the existence of graviton (Fiz...
(The previous theory of gravity is extended, the gravity process is explained, and demonstrated with an experiment:
(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yhpl50HRvw8 at 48, 00- 51 00, more preciselly: 48 30 - 50 30) there is mentioned that they demonstrated Einstein GTR ... But the GRT is not compatible with Gravity of Newton... Einstein did not given natural explanation of the gravity!
In the article: 'The gravity can be demonstrated with fact'
There are erroneous parts (tidal, tectonic), because it was based on incorrect information..
If you are interested, I will share the English version, but there are no pictures.
In your case: It is probably exists an plausible explanation of the phenomenon that you experienced... If you are interested, this is a personal matter, and I would like to see for myself what is happening... The measurement sites would be selected after a thorough discussion. the time of the observation would also be selected after a thorough discussion.
Regards,
Laszlo
Today. Online information about the geodeformation field of Europe. Data from https://en.sat24.com/.
Тoday. Online information about the geodeformation field of Europe. Data from https://en.sat24.com/.
Magnitude Mw 4.9
REYKJANES RIDGE
Date time 2023-05-14 11:27:53.5 UTC
Location 57.07N ; 33.93W
Depth 10 km
View the archive of satellite images https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/ for May 12, 2023 in the Iceland region.
The Pyrenees and 5 hours later the Alps.
Vertical movements of tectonic blocks measuring 140x140 km are visible through changes in gravity.
https://en.sat24.com/
Before three hours ago I bet with my son (five chocolates, he increased the quantity), the next earthquake forecast:
M:+4.0 In Italy (South of Roma) in the next 48 hours ´(the beginning time: am 12; 15 05.2023.- 12 am. 17.05.2023 )... I do not have information about the quantity of energy which will have a role in the In reality the magnitude window... bonsider mentally: M: 3.2. 5.2) But if the needed source for a bigger earthquake exists there will happen a bigger earthquake like M: 5.2.
Regards,
Laszlo
Тoday. Online information about the geodeformation field of Europe. Data from https://www.wetterzentrale.de/
The Earthquake forecasting was successful (attached file 1.)
Only apparently... The hypocentre is too deep
, another thing I lost the bet!
What was the mistake: three conditions were satisfied, one not that principle which made me able to do earthquakes forecast... The energy was slow..
In reality here is the happened events: (second)
MagnitudeML 2.1RegionSOUTHERN ITALYDate time2023-05-15 23:20:29.1 UTCLocation41.95 N ; 14.12 EDepth7 km
In case of Borys Kapochkin we can consider successful his earthquake forecast (third fourth attached file)...
MagnitudeML 3.9RegionFRANCEDate time2023-05-16 06:24:20.2 UTCLocation44.53 N ; 6.84 EDepth5 kmRegards,
Regaeds Laszlo
Again at sunset. Is it time to calculate the probability (statistics)?
Magnitude Mw 5.2
Region CRETE, GREECE
Date time 2023-05-18 18:58:51.9 UTC
Location 34.92 N ; 24.83 E
Depth 10 km
Сьогодні. Інтернет - інформація про геодеформаційне поле Європи . Дані з https://en.sat24.com/ .
Again at sunset???
Magnitude ML 4.4
Region ROMANIA
Date time 2023-05-22 17:46:41.5 UTC
Location 46.12 N ; 21.47 E
Depth 5 km
Magnitude ML 4.2
Region ROMANIA
Date time 2023-05-22 19:55:25.6 UTC
Location 46.08 N ; 21.50 E
Depth 12 km
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