Hello everyone I'm new in this plateform I'm looking to do my master thesis about impact of the war on economic growth ( impact in short and long term ). My time serie data will be 1960-2020 and population will be most countries of the world.
I chose as independent variable real gdp per capita and dependant variable inflation, trade and military expenditure (I'm searching other dependant variables).
and for conflicts I will divide my data by high intensity and low intensidty of the war. And also by geography to catch spillover of neighbors because impact of the conflicts in few regions can be different than impact of the conflict in all country. ( I found some problems to divide my data geographically )
I choose this subject because of last conflict of ukraine and russia and it's impact on the world by high inflation and high prices and this may harm gdp growth.
If some one can help me to improve my model I will be so grathful and thankful.
Thank you for reading :)
Thies and Baum (2020) have presented a detailed study on this topic in the Cato Journal, which addresses many of the problems you have indicated. Here the link:
https://www.cato.org/cato-journal/winter-2020/effect-war-economic-growth
Revered Dr.Nab EI,
The war has an economic, social and environmental impact of reducing or increasing the situations in the particular country.
On the one hand, war can increase GDP per capita by reducing unemployment and by shifting people from family formation and entered into businesses.
These are common side effects of the war as follows:
* Lost GDP Unless war takes place in another country
* Decline in working population
* Innovation/new technologies
* Psychological costs
* Damage to buildings/infrastructure
* Rise in national debt/higher taxes in future
* Opportunity cost Eg. decline in health care
* Inflation
* Creates employment
Moreover, the economic costs, psychological costs and opportunity cost are affecting the government and the people directly or indirectly.
Economic Costs
The Government will spend the money for purchasing weapons, bombs, military vehicles etc could reduce the GDP to some extent.
Psychological Costs
These are the expenditures due to the impact if the war in the country that is death, medical expenditures for the affected soldiers, depression, declined the health issues in the family members.
Opportunity Costs
Money spends for purchasing costly medicines for recovery, repair the damaged ones, and buying high price of the foods due to inflation etc.
There are positive impacts are also there like increasing the female employment, internal mobility, business hike in terms of the prices in the markets etc.
Negative impacts are the inflation, increasing the expenditures, becoming poor status, decline the health issues etc.
Regards
Senapathy
Ethiopia
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