Sarwar J. Minar It is extremely difficult to make an accurate estimate of the economic impact of coronavirus and organizations like OECD are still unable to make any statement in that respect. What we do know is that the economic impact is going to be phenomenal and will be a consequence of repairing many of the damages caused by the epidemics. Some of the components of the total cost involved are very difficult to evaluate, such as the loss of human life and what it implies as loss of human capital. Other critical components are the disruption of supply networks and the surge of unemployment caused by the destruction of companies, especially the more vulnerable ones (small and medium enterprises).

Even with all these difficulties, economic estimates are absolutely necessary to be able to plan the best use of resources.

I agree with Carlos Rodríguez-Monroy . It is difficult to estimate it, but now the priority is to reduce the spread of the disease and support economy with investment in sensitive sectors, to be ready for the recovery.

The basic source of analytical data are data describing the economic and financial situation, which are collected and aggregated in statistical offices. However, you will have to wait several weeks or several months for this data. The necessary analytical data can be collected faster by conducting surveys among entrepreneurs, directors of logistics departments in enterprises as well as citizens and households. In this way, it would be possible to estimate the projected decline in economic growth in terms of individual sectors and the entire national economy.

Best wishes.

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Two scenarios can be considered for the pandemia aftermath. The first one is the V-scenario that shows a strong recovery of the global economy once the crisis is over. The second one is the L-scenario that shows that as a consequence of pandemia, especially if it is long-lasting the world economy plunges into a long period of recession or even depression. The outcomes are completely different.

Carlos Rodríguez-Monroy , great! thanks a lot for sharing your valuable insights!

Stay Safe... !

Difficult by possible with data on the effected sectors and with under various scenarios.

Sule Akkoyunlu , hmm.. I get it... Do you think it is still doable? thanks a lot for sharing your valuable insights!

Remain Safe and God Bless Human Race... !

Being it an unprecedented situation, its real impact is unknown. Data is not available now but I think it is a temporary shock and economies will recover as soon as this crisis gets off.

Sunil Kumari Dear Sunil, When the crisis is over the main ingredients for recovery are optimism and a constructive attitude. The coronavirus crisis is highly destructive and it has been assimilated to a real war with many casualties and a great disruption in the economies. However, unlike in a conventional war, infrastructure has not been destroyed, only paralyzed. Putting it in production mode may be very costly, but it will be feasible. The crisis can be a great opportunity to reconsider the production models, avoid previous mistakes and acknowledge our vulnerabilities. It is of the utmost importance that the wealth gap between rich and poor becomes narrower.

One of the most commonly used methods is to use the analytical model built for this purpose, based on selected key indicators of sectoral and macroeconomic development of the economy.

Greetings,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

A number of indices like people's purchasing power , the levels of import and export , and the government's control of the situation can be regarded as important factors in evaluating national economies based on COVID 19 outbreak.

Dear Sarwar J. Minar

I imagine two variables that have undergone substantial changes due to the Covid-19 pandemic:

1) Increased public spending on health care and coverage of the basic needs of the most vulnerable population and the economy in general (SMEs).

2) The change in the forms of trade, which have become general and will remain over time. (Increase in electronic commerce, take away modalities, innovation in delivery processes, etc.).

Socially, there will be changes in the provision in food places, teaching classrooms and forms of transportation, among others. I think it is a good opportunity for humanity to change for the better.

Measuring the exact impact of this global tragedy I think is very complex. I share Carlos Rodríguez-Monroy position on the resilience of humanity, but each national economy will be affected differently.

Regards from Argentina.

https://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/countingthecost/2020/02/coronavirus-outbreak-affecting-global-economy-200229125804909.html

I agree with Reza Biria .

Sarwar J. Minar, Nice Topic.

Abdelkader Mohamed Elsayed Thank you, Abdelkader, for the relevant information. It's quite evident that the difficulties to quantify the impact of COVID-19 are enormous and there are great uncertainties about how the global economy, as well as the economy of most countries, are going to evolve. We still don't know how entire continents, like Africa and South America, are going to be affected, because the pandemic hasn't reached its peak in those regions. We still don´t know if there will be other outbreaks and how intense they can be, and we don't know how governments are planning to cope with future situations. We do know, however, that the world economy will be substantially different from the pre-COVID-19, and globalization will be perceived differently.

Great question

following the dialogue

Hi Sarwar,

It is a valuable question.

To estimate the effects of the COVID19 on national economy, you can choose qualitative or quantitative methods. To carry out the qualitative method, you need to make a panel of experts and analyze their opinions and ideas, while employing quantitative technique needs a monthly data for a panel or countries in a region or continent or an economic bloc.

The major point is that the impact of this pandemic is measurable. Only you need to find out the best method to measure it!

Thanks.

Ehsan Rasoulinezhad I totally agree. Possibly a very accurate measurement is not actually needed, especially in this highly volatile situation in which we are living. A rough estimate of the impact can be obtained by simply extrapolating the pre-COVID-19 magnitudes, prior to the pandemic, and comparing them with the actual measurements obtained during the pandemic from the most reliable sources available. The idea is to avoid data distorted for politically-motivated reasons.

By basing on different locked down and isolating scenarios.

Abdelkader Mohamed Elsayed, thanks for sharing the link.

Evaluating the impact of the COVID-19 on the GDP indexes, unemployment indexes, and the governmental contingent expenditures.

The key issue is to compare the current (2020) macroeconomic data with analogous data from previous years. On the basis of quantitative macroeconomic data from previous years, i.e. until 2019, trends of changes, specific trends, key variables, macroeconomic categories concerning income, expenditure, investments, production, unemployment, employment, inflation, state of public finances, GDP, level of debt and / or reserves, inventories, etc. of economic entities operating in individual industries and sectors of the economy, the state of the economic situation in individual sectors of the economy, etc. Differences observed between the data from 2020 and the data from previous years, changes in trends in key macroeconomic categories of quantitative data observed in 2020 are the basis for determining the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic (causing the Covid-19 disease) on the economy of a specific region, district, country, globally.

Best wishes,

Have a nice day,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

I would also like to add that when it comes to measuring the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic, one should separate the direct impact of the pandemic on the economy resulting, for example, from citizens' concerns about meeting in public places, in shops, in shopping centers, use of various services, etc., from the indirect impact of government-introduced instruments to increase anti-pandemic and sanitary safety and systemic solutions aimed at slowing down the development of the pandemic (e.g. wearing protective masks, home quarantine; lockdown of the economy, including the closure of shopping centers, services , museums, cinemas, parks, offices, etc. and the transition to remote service). In many countries, the indirect impact of the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic on the economy was greater than that of the direct one, and was the largest contributor to the decline in production, consumption, investment, economic growth and rising unemployment. In some countries, high-budget interventionist socio-economic policy programs, including the so-called Anti-crisis shields. In some countries, the debt of the public finance sector increased significantly. All the above-mentioned macroeconomic categories are measurable, quantitative in nature, they are cyclically collected, aggregated, processed cross-sectionally, by sector, branch, etc., and in macroeconomic terms in the main statistical offices. Best wishes,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Hi,

you might find answer to your question from research ;-)

Preprint A systematic literature review on the studies related to COV...

B.R.,

Assoc. Prof. Ari Happonen

One important aspect that we can't avoid is that COVID-19 will accelerate many economic reforms initiated before the pandemic, like distance working, remote learning, or Industry 4.0. Measuring the effects may be difficult, but some estimates may be made. In principle, economic reforms are meant to be beneficial, but generalization may not always apply. Many businesses and professionals will have to reinvent themselves.

I think GDP, GNP, Per capita, unemployment can be good measuring variables but you can focus on forecasting deviation due to COVID-19 on those indicators/indexes and recovery options....