In case of an uncertainty analysis say we perform DoE, analysing which we get optimization of the given parameters. How are we supposed to interpret uncertainty analysis with that result? What are the best software for this purpose meant for reservoir simulation studies?
to interpret uncertainty analysis with optimization you can use best software for this purpose meant for simulation studies the Origin 8.
Dear Ankita,
For interpreting uncertainty analysis with optimization please see a links and attached files in topics.
- Uncertainty Analysis and Optimization - Stanford University
www.stanford.edu/.../optimization/.../12-uqlab_optimizationday.pd...
- What is Sensitivity Analysis? - MATLAB & Simulink - MathWorks
https://www.mathworks.com › ... › Sensitivity Analysis
- CEE 201L. Uncertainty, Design, and Optimization - Duke University
www.duke.edu/~hpgavin/cee201/
Best regards
Read this article
https://web.stanford.edu/group/emf-research/docs/emf14/Weyant-Kann.pdf
Dear Ankita,
Thanks for raising such an important issue. Recent global statistics shows that around 70% E&P projects over the last 10 years had resulted in lower NPV than forecasted at the time of Final Investment decisión . This is mainly due to:
* poor estimating of the inputs used in NPV calculation.
* Inappropriate Project shaping or wrong development for the resource.
* Confusing accuracy with confidence as informaiton increases.
* Believing sophisticaiton reduces risk
* Underestimation of time to complete the tasks.
* Scope changes, por definition, lack of rigor in appoval process, por communicaiton
* Ignoring dependencies and interdependencies
* Poor risk managmement. Lack of contingecny plans, ineefectual contractual protection
* Inadequate Project managment, por communicaiton, low resources utilization
All the above factors carry uncertianty and associated risks and affect the overal E&P Project value. Proper accounting of uncertiantities and associated risks in different áreas is critical. Depending upon the stage of the Project, fit-for purpose workflows can be defined to assess them.
Dear Vikram Sir
Thanks for your valuable information. Where is the basic difference in CCS context between uncertainty and risk assessment or analysis?
In CCS context, It sould be related to reservoir conditions. For example what is the top and lateral seal máximum capacity. ? What could the máximum pressure which these seals can cope with? Is ythere any possibility for existing faults activation? How CO2 will react with existing reservoir fluid ( compatibility issue)?
Dear Sir
Thanks. Is the overall pressure rise (due to CO2 injection) which is not supposed to exceed the fracture pressure of a formation not the same as that for a caprock/seal?
Yes. But it may not be so simple and straight forward. A good understanding of rock geomechanical properties, exisitng stresses and their orientation including their impact on existing faults and fractures could be required. Available fomration integirty test and their associated issues ?
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