Will oil continue to be the most important source of energy in the 21st century?
Definitely not (answer for your second, descriptive question). We just have to realize that oil reserves are substantially reduced and that alternative energy resources must be more integrated.
I agree with Carmen in one way and disagree from the alternative energy perspective.
Let us start with the agreement: I think people will keep using oil specially in third world countries since changes will happen slowly due to lack of investment or corrupt government. Oil will not go over $80 whatever the analysts say since shale oil with abundant supply will keep coming to the market and get it out will become more cheaper due to horizontal drilling and the new technological advances. So oil will stay for the near future but not above $75. Third world countries that have oil and have high birth rate will have to accommodate or transform themselves.
On the other hand, when technology takes over and silicon becomes replaceable with other materials that many companies working on it now, then you will move to the electric age by getting cheaper electricity from the sun and adequate energy resources from the wind and other ECO friendly sources Thus at this time disruption will be unavoidable and the system will start renewing itself by deciding on the future instead of going back to the old oil thoughts. After couple decades third world countries with oil will have no choices but to change and technology for sure will disrupt this sector. Integration is a matter of time and Energy disruption will change everything. What we have now will be obsolete and oil at that time will disappear. new generations will think of oil like we used to think of riding horses 150 years ago (in the old west).
Dear Mr. Pamboukian,
this question has been raised quite often since I have been dealing with geosciences. As an economic geologist by profession dealing with mineral resources from aluminum through zirconium, I would like to give you a more philosophical answer. The onset of mining of inorganic natural raw materials signals the beginning of the end of its exploitation.
A more realistic approach is given afterwards: When I was a freshman at the university, I learned from the “Club of Rome” that we will run out of Sn in the years to come. Ten years later they shut down the smelters due to an overproduction in SE Asia.
In 1972 the same “group of prophets” predicted for the 1990s the end of oil production. Since then we can learn year after year that the range of using oil is between 30 and 50 years and nothing happens what we should be afraid of.
Kind regards
H.G.Dill
Hello, we are not talking here about oil production running out. We are talking about technology taking over.
Dear Mr. Pamboukian,
could you please put your question in a more precise way.
Thank you very much
H.G.Dill
Gabi Nehme has the correct understanding.
In Brazil, there is practically no need for heating for homes in winter. However, in the summer, electricity is used to cool the environment, especially in the offices. With the prospect of replacing fossil fuel vehicles, oil consumption should be reduced worldwide. In this sense, will oil lose its importance for the electricity generated by non-polluting methods in transportation, heating, refrigeration, etc.?
Thank you
hope everybody understand that oil disruption is coming and should be well prepared.
I found the answer: "The cost of electric batteries, which in 2010 was
US $ 1000/kWh, in 2016 was reduced to less than $ 300/kWh. When the cost is reached at US $ 100/kWh, electric vehicles will be cost-compatible to vehicles with internal combustion engines and this evolution is expected so that electric vehicles reach scale by 2030 and can be shortened by new discoveries".
I agree that lower cost of renewable energy will disrupt the oil market by relying more on natural gas, solar and wind and less on oil. I think this will happen sooner. 2030 is very far, I think 2025 will be the year of disruption. countries will fall and other will move ahead.
Technological advances prove to be reliable in this era, and oil soon will be the energy of the past.
Depends a bit on how far away the horizon is positioned, but globally the answer is no. Technology takes a long time to move into poorer areas, and even affluent areas are not petroleum free. The best we can do for now is reduce dependence on oil in local areas. This can be through increased efficiencies in use, recycling of oil based products, or replacement of oil with renewable equivalents.
If we can get fusion reactors to work, or develop inexpensive and efficient solar cells then this might change. A family car that runs directly from a solar cell most days, and only needs a battery for night travel. Commercial aircraft that use a fusion reactor rather than oil.
Replacing oil with biofuels is not really an answer. It simply exchanges one problem with another. The land used to produce biofuels is not available for food production. It may also require water, fertilizer, and pesticides that give rise to all the problems with commercial agriculture. On a small scale, biofuels are great because they can turn a waste product like used cooking oil into a useful commodity.
Every time there is an uptick in the oil prices they will tell us not. But I will remind you technology will not stop until there is total independence of oil and the sun is the engine that is going to drive that giving time. I think no more than 2040. We still use oil but not as much in comparison to other resources.
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