tuberculosis

I think Zika Virus

Hi Glenn,

Its is very unusual to answer such a question in few lines as it requires deep understanding to many points related to current scenario of epidemiology control all over the world. What have happened in the past few decades proved that we still lack a lot in terms of predicting and controlling emerging fatal diseases. 

I have noticed that the previous answers simply predicted that some diseases might be having chances to become uncontrolled in the future. It is not that simple to do so.

There are several dimensions of prediction of new or re-emerging diseases and its control:

1. the situation in developed countries is actually advanced especially after the World War II, as technology level hiked in addition to advancement in drug development and marketing. 

2. Due to higher level of healthcare provided to population in developed countries, age range have increased causing another problem of controlling elderly diseases

3. In addition, economic fluctuations, recessions and GNI had some effect in some developed countries related to adding burden on allocating funds to sponsor pharmaceutical or any medical R&D

4. On the other side of the world, the situation in many developing countries is not very optimistic. The results of increasing urbanization, war and political unrest, famine, massive population movements, poverty, and similar issues must have had a major effect on the health of communities in developing nations. Although much of the improvement can be ascribed to improving public health and social conditions, the advent of scientific medicine—particularly the control of many infectious diseases of childhood—seems likely to be playing an increasingly important part in this epidemiological transition. One of the major challenges in some developing countries is facilitating the access to healthcare for a wider proportion of the population.

Accumulating the above points, I believe that epidemiology control can be feasible in developed countries due to advancements in medical technology and accessibility of healthcare to most of the population.

While it is very difficult to predict future diseases, I think that new strains of viral diseases might re-emerge and could cause serious emergencies in some poor countries.

Regards,

Ibrahim 

Thank you fr your responses so far. TB drug resistance is a problem and therefore could lead to a global disease outbreak. However, a viral disease that has an airborne mode of transmission and high mortality seems a greater threat to public health. I agree Zika is an issue but will such vector borne diseases be a global threat?

Best regards. Glenn.

Influenza also remains a major threat because of its chameleonlike behavior. New strains develop all the time and R&D teams don't always get the right combinations of strains into the vaccines for a given year. Statistically we are overdue for a major flu pandemic, which could prove extremely deadly given the tremendous health inequity that persists in many societies and its resultant impact on people's ability to survive. In societies where water access is very limited, for example, influenza can become a tremendous threat very quickly.

Totally agree Alex, a virulent form of avian influenza poses a major and the next probable threat globally. 

Its already here, but few are paying attention. As a group, they are called "non-communicable diseases" - and are already the largest cause of deaths and morbidity in almost every country.  But health systems are largely unprepared, still responding using a care model based on addressing communicable diseases - like the ones predicted by others in previous responses. 

Thank you for stating the obvious Paul, but I think it unfair to say that people are not paying attention. In every country I work in NCDs are a top priority. I do however feel that the WHO has not been paying attention - re the recent Ebola outbreak and even in NCDs the greater emphasis in HQ is on smoking - what about alcohol as a related issue - 0.5 FT on this global emergency - be careful not to throw stones when you choose to live in a glass house. With all due respect.

Hi Gleen

Your question needs to be contextualized, as global health emergencies affect countries in very distinctive ways. Communicable diseases are central in global south, and if Trump's budget proposal is approved by the Congress, the health outcome in these countries are likely to get worst, as our global health surveillance capacity. If you're interested in this topic, please join my project.

in the developed world we need health systems and delivery of care that matches our population demographics, and we are catching up on care coordination, integration of care, community-based support, etc, etc.

Hi Ana, your project looks interesting. I will. Global and country level surveillance are essential.

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Although many diseases are of great concern and stated here by the scholars I think systemic diseases like GBS (Guillain-Baree Syndorme), SJRA (Systemic juvenile rheumatoid arthritis), AS (Ankylosing spodylitis) will continue to suffering many more people in the upcoming days!

Dear Dr. Glenn Laverack

God willing, we wish a world without infectious diseases again. its enough.

best regards

Dear dr. Muhammad Abdullah Al Mamun

Thanks a lot for your nice contribution.

Best regards

Dear Prof. Paul Kowal

Nice contribution.

Best regards

Dear Dr. Ibrahim Khalid Rayes

Very useful contribution.

Best regards