I am trying to assess or predict the use of one specific technology that might have several impacts on an operational activity - drilling in the oil industry. This technology is supposed to improve the efficiency of drilling in various aspects among which the economic aspects are of high importance to me.
I am seeking a quantitative method that can help me measure and predict the economic outcomes of this change. So I would be thankful if anyone could suggest using any method for this need.
You must apply some scenarios (like changing by 20%, 40%, ..., and 100%), then, based on the estimated subside and the estimated use of the previous technology, you are able to estimate the economical aspect of the new technology.
You may want to incorporate both qualitative and quantitative risk parameters. The applicability of various probability distributions to the (e.g petroleum project development cost analysis). Each of the risk analysis technique has its own advantages and shortcomings. The quantitative analysis techniques such as Fault Tree Analysis and Event Tree analysis can yield definitive results but usually require enormous effort in model development, data collection and quantification of uncertainties. The qualitative (or semi-quantitative) risk analysis tools such as PHA or FMEA yield quick results that are not quantitative, but can be cost-effectively used to prioritize the relative risks (in relation to other risks present or posed by the product/system).
Dear Masoud.
In general, technology is measured as a residual, that is, indirectly in Neo -Classical economics. But a straightforward way to use regression would be to regress a variable call "yield or output" on "a dummy variable" that has 1 for the dates the new technology or method was introduced, and zero otherwise. If you want you can used dummies for the old and new technology, but be careful that the dummies do not sum to a column of "one" for that would make them colinear with the intercept term, that is, the dummy variable trap.
Dear Masoud,
Starting from your statement: This technology is supposed to improve the efficiency of drilling in various aspects among which the economic aspects are of high importance to me. The first step you need to do is to analyse the curent KPI's of the process which refer to the current Benchmark (e.g. consider the current best drilling operations with current technology, time vs depth, cost versus depth etc..). Second step is to establish the new Benchmark (whished best in place efficiency and cost), to compare the progress you need to define new KPI's (Key Performance Indicators) this step shall be well defined (e.g. you need to clear define you KPI's and on a SMART way, Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant and Time-oriented). Any other statistical or risk analysis tool (as suggested by other) may help you to predict e/o assess the outcome afterward.
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