The current situation between China and Taiwan is alarming and Chinese government continue preparing her military for training exercise, while US is sending strong messages to support Taiwan. Would it result to war or peace?.
Not hot war. Things would be like cold war with a mix of proxy war . China would try to escalate with self restraint as and when required
It depends on the time-frame you have in mind. A war is very unlikely in the short term, as the PLA does not as yet have the capabilities to take Taiwan, and even less to deter the USA from interfering in support of Taiwan. There is no chance that a democratically elected president of Taiwan will accept China's terms to be part of Xi's China, and thus the only way that China under Xi can get Taiwan is to use force, and it is unlikely to try until and unless it has the capacity to do so and preferably within an acceptable level of costs.
If the time-frame is extended to between 10 to 20 years, and assuming US-China relations remain basically on the current trajectory, China will use force to take Taiwan, as it has been building up the capabilities to attack Taiwan and to deter the USA from interfering by its anti-access capabilities. Unlike his predecessors who insisted China must take Taiwan but never indicated a timeframe, Xi has made it clear he intends to do so in his watch, and at 67 he can afford up to 20 years or so before he must get this done, which should be long enough for the PLA to build up the capabilities it will require for a Taiwan campaign. But one should be careful with such a projection, as a lot of things can happen in such a timeframe which may have profound impact on the priorities of a great power.
I don't think the leadership in China and America respectively is that irresponsible to risk all out war. What is likely to happen is that the tensions characterized by muscle posturing will continue for some time. There may be a time when the politicians in Taiwan will give in to China pressure and negotiate with Beijing towards guaranteeing some sort of autonomy that will be that than the status of Hong Kong.
Just wait and see the outcome of the American presidential election. I Biden is elected things will cool done. If Trump win the election then things might be a little different on the negative side but in the end, there is little change to be expected, tension will continue for longtime to come@
It's very unlikely to be engaged in war. Many factors contribute to the current tension between both countries. Military exercise by both countries was routine and seen as a sign of a show of force by both countries. The outcome of the USA presidential election will set the course for the bilateral relationship between the superpowers.
In my opinion the likelyhood of a direct confrontation between The US and China on the Taiwanese issue is quite low, especially considering current economic implications. While this could be a bigger challenge for the US economy, a proxy conflict (Taiwan supported by the US against China) is a probability.
However, let's also consider the change in US leadership (with Joe Biden) as an opportunity for dialogue with China on the issue.
Although the probability for China's historical assertion over Taiwan is at a turning point, the outcome (war or peace) could greatly depend on US move once the new administration is inaugurated.
Tension will continue, but I don`t think China is interested to take Taiwan. It is just a political game that big power continues to play. Using one country against another or claiming that China is on its way to invade Taiwan. We have to wait for too long for that to happen.
It will never happen, it is just a game that confronting power play against each other.
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