Even in the hardest-hit parts of the world, many fewer people have been infected than would be needed to achieve the herd immunity that might slow — but not stop — the outbreak. Serology surveys in places including Wuhan, Madrid and London have tested a cross-section of the population for antibodies against the disease. So far, the highest rate of infections found is around 20%, in New York City. That is well below the required level — something more like 60% (maybe) — to achieve herd immunity. There are many caveats around how the surveys are done and the accuracy of the antibody tests. And we don’t know for sure whether a past infection will give a person immunity, or to what extent. The New York Times
With a novel disease that we have little information to date, herd immunity may not be effective.
COVID-19 is novel to mankind, herd immunity may therefore take several years.
The ciritical issue, however, is that lockdowns and social disctancing are counteracting on (or at least slowing down) herd immunity while the protection of the most vulnerable risk groups need isolation measurements.
The interesting question is if we get a vaccine and how effective this vaccine might be in containing the spread of COVID-19.
Nevertheless I think that we will reach herd immunity at some time.
This Spanish study published in Lancet clearly suggests that despite the substantial impact of SARS-CoV-2 in Spain, prevalence estimates remain low and are clearly insufficient to provide herd immunity. Kindly refer to this link for details:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31483-5/fulltext
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