Maybe the following reviews will help you on the subject:
Xun P, Wu Y, He Q, He K. Fasting insulin concentrations and incidence of hypertension, stroke, and coronary heart disease: a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies. Am J Clin Nutr 2013;98(6):1543-54. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3831539/pdf/ajcn9861543.pdf
Zhang X, Li J, Zheng S, Luo Q, Zhou C, Wang C. Fasting insulin, insulin resistance, and risk of cardiovascular or all-cause mortality in non-diabetic adults: a meta-analysis. Biosci Rep 2017;37(5):BSR20170947. http://www.bioscirep.org/content/37/5/BSR20170947.full-text.pdf
It depends on the the phase of intrinsic pancreatic beta cell function and the resulting basal insulin levels.
The natural progression of Non-diabetic --> Pre-diabetes --> T2D --> CVD involves an initial increase in Beta-cell function and increased fasting plasma insulin levels (but decreased insulin action) and later a progressive beta cell failure, where the insulin levels drastically fall leading to CVD. Ref: Article Relationship Between -Cell Mass and Fasting Blood Glucose Co...
and
Article Overview of 6 years of type II diabetes: A progressive disease
If the beta cell function is restored before the failure sets in, in the context of improved insulin sensitivity, still the fasting insulin drops but this time the CVD risk decreases too. Ref: Article Effects of Rosiglitazone, Glyburide, and Metformin on -Cell ...