Let's assume that the process develops over time - the independent parameter is t. We observe the registered diseases through a fixed period, for example, every day. I suppose the epidemic is rapidly developing, which is a steep front. As a consequence of undertaken the number of patients reaches a maximum, followed by a slow decline, until the epidemic subsides. If the process is such, it is described with a differential equation of second order. The determination of the coefficients is done by identification. Similar processes have been described in: