In AR4 reprort according to CMIP3 there was a scenario named "Commit" whos forcings were assumed constant and hence we could forecast the wind speeds due to natural variability!The CMIP5 has not introduced such scenario yet!Or is there any scenario equivalent to commit?
I can think of two experiments in CMIP5 which do not include anthropogenic effects: the pre-industrial control experiment ("piControl") and the Last Millenium experiment ("past1000"). The latter is 1000 years long and includes variability in solar forcing and aerosols from volcanoes as the only variable external forcings. The simulations cover the period from 850 to 1850.
@robert tardif:thanks for the response.Just a question,whether the RCP scenarios consider only anthropogenic changes or the natural and anthropogenic changes combined?
Is the picontrol data freely downloadable?It would be great if you share the link for the same!
Details about the design of experiments and their focus can be found in this paper:
Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93(4):485–498
The data is freely available. You need to register as a user, but otherwise free. Go to:
http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/
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