I have come across many past works who have used dynamic downscaling using regional climate models. RCMs are computationally intensive and have certain limitations.Can anyone suggest any past works or ideas on "climate change impact on storm surges/sea level rise/tsunamis using statistical downscaling".
I haven't come across any, but I wonder if you could skip the RCM step. For example, Lowe and Gregory (2005, rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/363/1831/1313) use a GCM downscale it though a RCM and feed the input into a surge model. I wonder if you could take the GCM output from a Hi-Res model and put that directly into a surge model. The study above for example uses a 0.4o by 0.4o RCM. Some GCMs now model at this resolution everywhere.
@Chris Brierley:Thanks for that input.But can you recommend me any state of the art surge model to work with and which is open source!!
I'm afraid that I can't. I've a colleague developing a Tsunami model, but that's neither ready for operational use nor will it be open source. I'm more of GCM man myself.
If you're interested in inundation, then ANUGA may be of interest (disclaimer: I work for Geoscience Australia, one of the co-developers of ANUGA). It's been heavily tested/used for tsunami applications, less so with wind-driven surge inundation, but it has been tested for that application.
In terms of downscaling for climate change applications, the approach we've taken in some projects is to develop a climate-conditioned catalog of cyclone events informed by a statistical analysis of tropical cyclone-like vortices extracted from either RCMs or GCMs (see the second link). The climate-conditioned catalog was then used to drive a catastrophe model that included surge impacts (sea level rise was not included though).
https://anuga.anu.edu.au/
Article Assessment of Tropical Cyclone Risk in the Pacific Region: A...
Hi, if the RCM stages can't be skipped at all and that you are not intended to run the RCM yourself, you can always refer to CORDEX database. It is a world wide coordinated downscaling experiments and depends on your regions of interest you can obtain wind data necessary to drive your surge model. My guessing is that that data that you need is already available there.
Cheers
You have to check if downscaling will give you any additional information. More than a finer resolution, spatial downscaling intends to add local variability that is consistent to the large-scale signal (Feser et al. 2011). Moreover, Fowler et al. 2007 suggests the assessment of the sensitivity of hydrological parameters to climatological parameters. If the GCMs are able to well simulate climatological parameters (in terms of average, trends and variance) which significantly affect the desired hydrological parameters, than downscaling might not add any useful information to regional climate change scenarios, and can, therefore, be neglected.
Moreover, it seems that you are interested in extremes. According to Wilby and Dawson 2012, frequency estimation of extreme events (e.g., precipitation amounts) is problematic for all downscaling methods.
There are interesting articles about the need for downscaling and use of climate scenarios to decision making:
- Dessai et al. 2009 (Climate prediction: a limit to adaptation?)
- Wilby and Dessai 2010
- Maraun et al. 2010
- Fowler et al. 2007
Where is problem? There is solution. why not? You can try to capture the extreme for Tsunami
- Badges
- Science topic
- Similar topics
- Geoscience
- Atmospheric Sciences
- Climate Science
- Climate Change