An earthquake forecast should include information about the time of the earthquake and the location of the earthquake. it is considered sufficient to predict that an earthquake will be dangerous for people. At the present stage of development of science, it is impossible to predict the place and time of an earthquake with a lead time of more than 7 days. Stresses arise and grow before an earthquake for no more than a week. after that, the stresses inevitably decrease. This means that only a short-term earthquake forecast is possible. Many facts of the announcement of the earthquake forecast a few days before it have been recorded. This includes the prediction of an earthquake on February 4, 1975 in China (M7.3) and the successful evacuation of the city of Haichen with a population of one million people two days before the destruction of the city by a strong jolt. Permanent observation networks on land were created and functioned for a long time in the Caucasus in California. The technology of the hydrogeodeformation field was used Author G.A. Vartanyan. In the marine seismogenic zone of Kamchatka (Pacific Ocean), a short-term earthquake forecast was continuously carried out from 1991 to January 1996 under the program of the Ministry of Geology. The seismic hazard forecast was announced daily on television. During this period, there were two earthquakes with М=7.2. Both earthquakes were notified for three days. My technology was used (patents: Method for predicting the phases of tectonic activity (1986); Earthquake prediction method (1986); Method for predicting the possibility of an earthquake (1987); A method for determining the phase of tectonic activity during the preparation of an earthquake (1993)). In addition, there are technical solutions for early warning of an earthquake that has already occurred. In Japan, this technology is implemented in practice. Advance notification is no more than 10 seconds. I have patented a technology for deep-focus earthquakes with a lead time of up to 80 seconds (Patent of Ukraine Method for early detection of earthquakes in seismic areas).

Earthquake prediction (EP) from the formal point of view can be considered in the deterministic domain or in stochastic one. Deterministic prediction should contain ( at least ) time of occurrence, size (magnitude or seismic energy or seismic moment), coordinates of hypocentrum. Generally, as far as I know, it is not solved now although some successful examples were published. For certain purposes EP can be defined in another way. For example in civil eng. for surface protection ( design , construction ) as an accepted probability level of EQ occurrence in assumed time interval, above assumed magnitude within certain distance. In stochastic domain EP is defined as as a probability of its occurrence.

Comment on Wacław M. Zuberek's answer.

Really good answer to the question.

Please allow comment. Indeed, forecasts are deterministic and statistical. Statistical forecasts are always confirmed and this is very convenient for the author. If the forecast was not confirmed, the author indicates that he did not guarantee 100%. for the user, the statistical forecast is useless. He has no right to spend money on evacuation because there is a risk.

A deterministic forecast cannot have a probability of 99.9999999%. This prediction always comes true. What is the probability that when the object is released, it will fall to the ground? Are there any errors in such a forecast? The answer is that there are never any mistakes. Now let's analyze the statement "Generally, as far as I know, it is not solved now although some successful examples were published.". Everyone believes that earthquake prediction by deterministic methods is impossible. Question. Why, contrary to "successful examples were published", earthquake prediction by deterministic methods is considered fundamentally impossible.

If the discussion continues, I will give an answer to this question.

I see the discussion going on. The answer to the question why no one uses short-term earthquake prediction technologies does not belong to the scientific field. I know all the nuances, but this is not science. This is the psychology of officials and global economics. I analyzed all this in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatka during the devastating earthquake of 1993, the earthquake in California in January 1994, and the earthquake in Japan in January 1995. I know everything, but I am silent.

Dear Ali Saket ,

You have asked two questions:

• Is it possible to predict earthquakes with current human science? To answer it, first, you need to say: what do you mean by science?
• We use various precursors to predict earthquakes. Are these precursors sufficient to predict earthquakes? You didn't describe what it is like precursors do you use... Thus, it is not possible to give an exact answer or reject the answer to your question.

Rest, can you look into the next conversation:

https://www.researchgate.net/post/Exists-the-next-situation-when-an-outsider-researcher-who-has-achieved-a-very-encouraging-result-in-earthquake-forecasting-is-not-supported

and the next articles:

Presentation Content of the Hungarian article: ‘A 2019. júliusi nankai földrengés’

Presentation Content of the Hungarian article: ‘A 2019. júliusi nankai földrengés’

Article A 2019. júliusi nankai földrengés

Cordially,

Laszlo

Dear Borys Kapochkin ,

Excuse me for correcting your beautiful first post:

'This means that only a short-term earthquake forecast is possible.'

The long-term forecasting same works... the situation is similar to targeted shooting with a rifle in case of deer hunting ... if we are far away, it is difficult to hit the target. therefore, a good hunter sees the deer and targets the deer when it is close...if there is no deer, there is no point in aiming for it, because you will not hit it.

Cordially,

Laszlo

Dear László Attila Horváth.

This problem has been very successfully considered by Wacław M. Zuberek. Short-term and long-term earthquake forecasts can have a stochastic basis. But only a short-term earthquake forecast can have a deterministic basis. Most methods of short-term earthquake prediction are capable of predicting only the time of an earthquake. Some methods allow predicting the location of an earthquake.

I will give an example of a time forecast Izmit earthquake (Turkey) on August 17, 1999 (M=7.6).

You know in advance all the amplitudes, periods and phases of the tides in the solid body of the Earth (the table is attached). The energy of tidal deformations in the solid body of the Earth is significant. You can calculate superposition. In addition, you know in advance that the gravitational lens of an annular solar eclipse will pass through Turkey on August 11 (a map of the track of the gravitational lens of the eclipse is attached). There is every reason for a long-term earthquake forecast. His text: somewhere in the south-east of Europe in August there is a possibility of an earthquake of unknown magnitude. What is the practical use of this?

If we additionally involve data on deformations (attached a picture of Odessa tides), then it can be noted that on August 13 in Odessa, deformations led to the destruction of infrastructure (green line). The date of the earthquake is shown in grey. Such deformations are associated with tension, when the surface of the earth increases the area. The figure shows that the stretching was with a period of 7 days. the second stretch was on August 20th. Thus, the compression of the earth's surface occurred on August 17, and during this compression a catastrophic earthquake occurred. But according to our observations in Odessa on August 13, only a regional contraction on August 17 can be announced. That is, you can predict the time of an earthquake. Satellite images show that during the stretch on August 13 and 20, heat anomalies were recorded in the Turkish region. This data is not mine. Thus, on August 11-12, a short-term forecast can be given.

Its text: On August 11, 1999, as a result of anomalies in the gravitational field of the Earth in the South-East of Europe, the amplitude of deformation waves increased sharply, which, for example, in Odessa was manifested by a one-day increase in the destruction of underground infrastructure. The process manifested itself at the regional level. The process is periodic (tides have periods). The maximum stretching was recorded from thermal anomalies in the Aegean Sea. The earthquake will occur on August 17th.

Very interesting discussion. However, one must keep in mind that the information used to predict earthquakes is usually inaccurate. This means that even if confirmed, the forecast is erroneous-random. Therefore, from the beginning it is necessary to solve the problem related to information, i.e. establish the main causes and mechanisms of geodynamic processes, etc.

Sincerely

Comment on Namaz Yusubov answer.

Сitation -"However, one must keep in mind that the information used to predict earthquakes is usually inaccurate. This means that even if confirmed, the forecast is erroneous-random".

I have already explained this.

Сitation "Indeed, forecasts are deterministic and statistical. Statistical forecasts are always confirmed and this is very convenient for the author. If the forecast was not confirmed, the author indicates that he did not guarantee 100%. for the user, the statistical forecast is useless. He has no right to spend money on evacuation because there is a risk.

A deterministic forecast cannot have a probability of 99.9999999%. This prediction always comes true. What is the probability that when the object is released, it will fall to the ground? Are there any errors in such a forecast? The answer is that there are never any mistakes".

Yes

Comment on Namaz Yusubov answer.

Сitation - "Therefore, from the beginning it is necessary to solve the problem related to information, i.e. establish the main causes and mechanisms of geodynamic processes, etc."

Every scientist dreams of understanding cause and effect as the basis of a knowledge system.

However, even Galileo stated that he does not know the cause of gravity, but he knows the physical law (formula). Knowing the formula, you can calculate the orbits of the planets.

The formal side of the question.

Сan be predicted without knowing the reasons, if the physical law is deterministic.

Good luck!!!!

It will depend on the exact definition of the precursor. If you assume that it is some measurable change occurring before all EQ above certain magnitude then probably we will not find them. In other case we will not be sure that the prediction is possible. So I think that in deterministic domain at present the EQ prediction isn't obtainable. It may be obtained only in the stochastic domain

(with some limitations). Regards. W. Z.

In most cases, destructive earthquakes occur in poor regions of the planet. Earthquakes kill hundreds of people every year, including children. The short-term earthquake forecast obliges to evacuate the population, but in poor countries this is not economically feasible. I wrote about the evacuation of the population in China in 1975. At that time, China was a very poor country. As a result of the successful evacuation of the population of the city of Haichen, before the earthquake and the destruction of houses, the difficult problem of providing rescued people with housing arose. Everything happened in winter. The problem was solved simply. In 1976, 250,000 people were buried as a result of the Tangshan earthquake. Together with the disabled, a million people. Now, no country in the world is funding scientific research on short-term earthquake prediction. It's not relevant. My project, which had fantastic success in predicting earthquakes in Kamchatka, also ceased to be funded. Our discussion has no prospect of practical implementation. This is reality.

In one hand, seismotectonic environments are so different with some similarities in certain cases. Hence, now we can not expect one universal way of solving the problem of prediction. However I see some hope in focussing on a number of typical seismotectonic environments (destructive plate boundaries, constructive PBs, and Conservative ones) study the deformations preceding major recent (from 1992 and on) earthquakes on each of the set of selected cases, this is now possible using Radar Interferometric techniques, this patient process mais reveal the repeated trends leading to the occurence of earthquakes. Continuing this approach will improve the results with time and the accumulated experience. It is all about identifying precursory deformations of a rupture event. Please see the following :

Article Space-borne Radar interferometric mapping of precursory defo...

Chapter Seismological and Remote Sensing Studies in the Dead Sea Zon...

It is generally accepted that earthquakes are generated by geodeformations. What it is? I will give background information - Bulletin of the opening in the USSR, diploma No. 273; authors: Borozdich E.V., Vartanyan G.S., Kulikov G.V. Title - "The phenomenon of pulsation in the field of piezometric levels of the underground hydrosphere with characteristic dimensions of 100 km and times of 24 hours, due to endogenous short-lived subcrustal local perturbations." The subject of discussion on the slide (region - Ukraine). His visualization on video. The theory of the process of visualization of deformations in the cloudy field is on the slide. Now about satellite radar interforometry. An orbit of 200-300 km does not make it possible to obtain the required scanning bandwidth. I think the width of the track is 50 km. The tracks are discrete, there are "blind zones" between them. An interferometric satellite comes to the same point again no more than a month later. Conclusion - for satellite radar interforometry, deformations have a subgrid scale in space, and in time it is less than the Nyquist frequency. I'm very regret about it. Maybe in 50 years it will be possible.

citation

"Implementation of a global network of classical short-term earthquake forecast

New

Discussion

I greet you, dear colleagues.

I live in Haifa and the officials did not allow me to participate in the short-term earthquake forecast project competition, despite the fact that I was supported by professors from one of the universities in Israel. The chairman of the commission and his consultant were deceived into denying the competition and gave 33 million shekels to "systems that report that an earthquake has already begun."

You can get acquainted with my methodology and the discovery of the genesis of earthquakes. My work received positive opinions from official scientific experts and was successfully tested on real earthquake forecasts in real conditions under the control of individual experts and an official expert: the Russian Expert Council.

Initially, the Chairman of the REC prof. A.V. Nikolaev, then the Chairman of the RES; the Deputy Director of the IPE RAS for Science prof. E.A. Rogojin, confirmed with positive conclusions the successful tests of real forecasting by the monitoring method of the Kozyrev-Yagodin wave (KaY-wave).

In the conclusion of the examination, it is stated that the tested methodology and system is recommended as the basis for building an international network of short-term forecasts: place, time, strength of a future earthquake with a certainty of about 100% tens of hours before the start of the tremors and indicating when the tremors will end. The forecast resolution between adjacent shocks is about an hour.

I am already 75+ and therefore I want to create a Center from which to build a network and to whom I will transfer the main part of the patent and my knowledge accumulated over 20 years of work.

This may be an association of state institutions or institutions, as well as the inclusion of private investors and specialists. It can be specialists from any state of any religion, any government system.

Sincerely.

Alexander Yagodin.

I enclose some of the expertises that I sended the Chief Scientist of the Israeli Ministry of Defense and after that I was invited to the 2017 Knesset Commission meeting."

Great paper on the principles of the precursors, although it dates to 1997, it is still current, and no significant breakthrough has been made since: Geller, R.J., 1997. Earthquake prediction: a critical review. Geophysical Journal International, 131(3), pp.425-450.

Also, look for electromagnetic precursors; this you might find interesting.

You see the original documents that give a positive answer to the scientific expertise and test results of the classical short-term earthquake prediction by the Kozyrev-Yagodin wave monitoring method. These are originals and legally this is a positive answer to your question.

Вы видите оригиналы документов, которые дают положительный ответ по научной экспертизе и результатам испытаний классического краткосрочного прогнозирования землетрясений методом мониторинга волны Козырева-Ягодина. Это оригиналы и юридически это и есть положительный ответ на ваш вопрос.

Dear Colleagues.

I invite you to take part in the discussion on the topic "Devastating earthquake in Turkey. Influence of aseismic geodeformations on the collapse of buildings without seismic shocks. How does this happen?".

Deformation waves not associated with earthquakes continuously pass over the surface of the Earth. These are waves with periods of 12, 24 hours and 14 days. Long waves are imperceptible to people, although they have an amplitude 10 times greater than seismic waves. In areas with a thin earth's crust, they usually do not provoke earthquakes (I do consider not mantle earthquakes). If the earth's crust is not subject to geodeformations, then they destroy it. After an earthquake, waves of geodeformation can provoke the collapse of buildings (before the earthquake, these territories were not deformed).

Video from INTERNET

Let's start the discussion.

I will quote information from my other discussion.

The earthquake in Turkey occurred on the date of the tide syzygy in the solid body of the Earth on February 6, 2023. On the dates of syzygy, the amplitude of geodeformations increases by no less than 20%. The first destructive earthquake occurred at 01:17 (M=7.8), the second at 10:24 (M=6.7). At this time, at the earthquake epicenter, the amplitude of the diurnal and semidiurnal tides in the solid body of the Earth reached positive extremes. In addition, due to the 14-day zonal tide in the solid body of the Earth, the conditions of stretching and compression of the Earth's crust were formed on the surface of the planet. The zonal tide in the solid body of the Earth is associated with the extrema of the angular velocity of the Earth's rotation. The data is available only for February 3. Attached the chart https://hpiers.obspm.fr/ . Stretch conditions on February 3 and February 10, 2023. On February 3, in accordance, rapid changes in the Earth's gravitational field on a planetary scale were recorded. Changes in the gravitational field recorded by our method, see satellite images https://meteologix.com/. Between the expansion phases, the compression phase is fixed. The compression occurred on February 6, 2023 and triggered an earthquake https://zn.ua/img/forall/u/14/8/photo_2023-02-06_15.16_.16_.jpeg . These are the facts of the formation of compression deformations on March 6. The scale is planetary.

Planetary-scale deformations (amplitude 30 cm) were blocked on February 6 in the epicentral zone of the future earthquake. The blocking of tidal waves in the solid body of the Earth is associated with the release of heat. In the atmosphere, the release of heat leads to a decrease in atmospheric pressure. Warm air weights less. Look at the color map of atmospheric pressure and low pressure above the epicenter at the moment of maximum compression (map from Twitter https://twitter.com/BookofCrusty/status/1622643773900464128?t=Yy-KLEZn-FDuHvyIHh1y5w&s=09 ). The relapse occurred on February 20, 2023 after 14 days during the next cycle of the positive extremum of the angular velocity of the Earth's rotation associated with the repetition of the phase of the zonal tide in the solid body of the Earth.

Colleagues. I don't know of a valid reason to say that there is no short term earthquake prediction. There are false "scientists" who see a positive conclusion from two expert commissions and a dozen official experts (Prof. A.V. Nikolaev and E.A. Rogozhin, Prof. Str. Mavrodiyev and others), see a positive conclusion from the results of real tests and at the same time thay say "it doesn't exist". But these scammers "pseudo-scientists" call important "the message that there is an earthquake", that people are already dying in the epicenter. Ashamed. Such people cannot be called scientists, they are liars, thieves. As a rule, this deceitful method is used with "fallback", because no smart scientist recognizes the benefits of methods like EEWS. Israel spent 35 million shekels on this method and everyone admitted that they could not save people's lives.

Коллеги. Я не знаю правдивой причины заявлять, что не существует краткосрочного прогноза землетрясений. Есть лживые "ученые", которые видят положительное заключение двух экспертных комиссий и десятка официальных экспертов (проф. А.В. Николаев и Е.А. Рогожин, прооф Стр. Мавродиев и другие), видят положительное заключение по результатам реальных испытаний и при этом заявляют, что "это не существует". Зато эти мошенники "псевдоученые" называют важным "сообщение, что идет землетрясение", что в эпицентре уже гибнут люди. Стыдно. Таких людейнельзяназывать учеными, это лжецы, воры. Как правило этот лживый метод используется с "откатом", потому что ни один умный ученый не признает пользу от методов типа EEWS. Израиль на этот метод потратил 35 миллионов шекелей и все признали, что не могут сохранить жизнь людям.

Dear All,

If anyone looks at the above thoughts who can predict earthquakes, and hase basic knowlege of Earth sciences would draw the following conclusions...

1: Many people do not tell the truth (well explained these thought in Dr House films).

2. The problem is not well approached.

3. Some people are in a position to predict an earthquake because they have all the technical background but they are silly to do it. Others who are able to predict earthquakes the are pushed outside to periferie.

4. No will to predict earthquakes in advance in Western world... The exceptions are China, Russia, Israel... Turkey will have the will if the current Turkish President Recep Erdogan wins the elections.

Regards,

Laszlo

Уважаемый Ласло. Уважаемые коллеги.

Вот только Вы переоценили Россию и Израиль.

Россия. Да, Путин семь лет поддерживал попытки продвинуть внедрение, но он не директор ИФЗ, и не может работать за Президента РАН.

Да, два профессора(Николаев и Рогожин) которые в соответствии с законами страны были Председателями Российского экспертного совета, провели научную экспертизу и провели реальные испытания краткосрочного прогноза землетрясений, на котором я дал место, время начала и силу будущего землетрясения. (2012 - 2013).Чтоб исключить случайные попадания, давались прогнозы землетрясений магнитудой от 6 до 9 (в Охотском море). Из 20 прогнозов, данных с опережением от 5 до 50 часов до начала толчков, 20 были верными. Ошибка по времени составила от 30 минут до 1 часа. В случае Охотского моря ошибка по времени составила 10 часов, так-как у меня в это время не было пяти станций и угол векторов был очень острым, что дает большую ошибку.

Заседание РЭС 2015 г. на котором были все руководители ОНЗ РАН, признало мой метод и теорию Генезиса землетрясений.

Председатель Заместитель директора понауке проф. Рогожин в 2016 году прислал мне письмо, в котором подтвердил мои результаты и сообщил, что у России нет денег, чтоб сделать внедрение.

Оба профессора уже умерли и те, кто их сменили просто втаптывают в грязь все, что было сделано за 20 лет. Новые руководители РАН умалчивают о созданной методике, чтоб не потерять бюджетные вливания, пытаются "за давностью лет" скрыть созданный метод. То, что люди гибнут, их не волнует - они сидят прочно, защищенные своим директором и своими "лживыми учеными". Ни один из них не встал и не сказал: "РЭС и мы с Вами все это признали в 2015 году. Это надо внедрять, чтоб не погибали люди". Они обеспечили себе прикрытие: СМИ России не публикуют правду - они просто заткнули себе рты под руководством ИФЗ РАН.

ОНЗ РАН продало за гроши все, что было сделано Николаевым и Рогожиным за двадцать лет. Новый ЗАВлаб Алексей Собисевич заявляет, что нет метода точного краткосрочного прогноза землетрясений. К сожалению, у меня серьезная проблема со здоровьем и пока я могу работать, Я хочу продать патент той стране, которая хочет и может стать во главе построения Глобальной сети краткосрочного прогноза. При этом, пока я могу работать, я передам весь 20 - летний опыт работы в этом методе.

Все сказанное подтверждается документами международных независимых и официальных экспертов.

Как видите, мы "немножко переоценили соотношение ЧЕСТИ и ЖАДНОСТИ ученых РАН".

Уважаемый Александр,

Спасибо за ваш комментарий.

Искренне, Ласло

На здоровье. Что касается Израиля, там еще веселее.

Я в 2004 году сообщил Министру науки об открытии метода прогноза и физики процесса землетрясений. Мне сразу прислали эксперта от института геологии Израиля. Вы видите документ - положительное заключение. Заседание Комиссии Кнессета прошло нормально. В протоколе видно (он на иврите), что Эйнат Ааронова (инст. Вейцмана) заявила, что китайские ученые заявили о невозможности открытия метода для одновременного прогноза места, времени, силы будущего землетрясения, но сообщила, что на работу Д-ра Ягодина надо обратить внимание. (Через десять лет после этого заседания она заявила, что ничего не говорила в поддержку моей работы..., но протокол зарегистрировал...). В 2014 - 2015 - меня (с профессором из Бэер Шевы) обманом не допустили не допустили до конкурса и отдали 35 миллионов тем, кто просто сообщает, что "началось землетрясение".

В 2017 г. меня Гл.ученый Мин обороны Израиля направил на заседание Комиссии Кнессета, где те, кто получили миллионы, заявили, что не могут отвечать за жизнь людей в случае землетрясения. Я заявил о единственном методе классического краткосрочного прогноза, который успешно прошел испытания.

В 2019 году я успешно провел локлад о моей методике и Председатель комиссии по подготовке Израиля к землетрясению признал мой метод, но отказался финансировать. С тех пор они просто уворачиваются от моих обращений, а ген. прокурору наплевать.

Потому я не надеюсь на Израиль, но надеюсь на ОАЭ или Саудовскую Аравию, как Центры Ближевосточного Центра краткосрочного прогноза.

Dear Ali Saket ,

I have made a earthquake forecast (not prediction I do not opportunity, tools for it) at my discussion:

https://www.researchgate.net/post/Exists-the-next-situation-when-an-outsider-researcher-who-has-achieved-a-very-encouraging-result-in-earthquake-forecasting-is-not-supported/113

Iin which is mentioned name of Borys Kapochkin :

'We know well that In Ankara will held the next event:

'75. Türkiye Jeoloji Kurultayı' (75. Geological Congress Of Turkey http://tjk.jmo.org.tr/index.php?kod=150&lg=en)

I made a present to the participants (without any tools)

an earthquake forecasting to the actual seismic highly active zone.

Time windows: 72 hours: 2023-04-09 (am 12 CET- 2023-04-12 (am 12 Cet

Magnitude: M: +4.5 (the maxim I do not have oportinty. from here in Hungary it is impossible to say the maximum magnitude, but in Turkey it is possible... Probably Borys Kapochkin . or Alexandr Yagodin can tell you.

Location: can also be determined precisely, The accuracy is deppend of the place of determination.'

This forecast also answers the following question:

Is earthquake forecasting easy?

I wish you all a Blessed and Peaceful Easter!

Regards,

Laszlo

Dear All,

The result of earthquake forecasting (attached file !)

I lost the bet with my son because the earthquake forecast main aftershock was M: 4-3 ...

regardless of this, the earthquake forecast was successful [ second attached file].

.I have no intention of increasing the material of the monologue.

One thing that is interesting is that this earthquake forecast has not received criticism.

This means that there is something wrong with earthquake forecasters.

I really have a lot to say, but there is no interest in it... T

Regards,

Laszlo