Monthly probabilistic analysis map of earthquake with a magnitude>4 in Iran (from March 23 to April 23, 2024) Applied Research Institute of Natural Disasters and Risk Management, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.
What do you think is more accurate: statistical results or physical formulas?
My work uses formulas for the physical connection between anomalies and subsequent earthquakes.
Those who claim "statistical forecast results" must declare the uncertainty and reliability of the final results.
Provide these numbers and we will continue the conversation.
А как вы полагаете, что точней: статистическиерезультаты или физические формулы?
Моя работа использует формулы физической связи аномалий и последующих землетрясений.
Те, кто заявляют о "статистических результатах прогноза", должны объявить погрешность и достоверность окончательных результатов.
Сообщите эти цифры и мы продолжим разговор.
Dear Ali ( Ali Saket ,)
The probabilistic analysis of medium is important to have an imagination of probabilistic occurrence of probabilistic waited earthquake... It is very useful method for a long time and medial time forecasting... The short time earthquake forecasting mainly have to base on deterministic analisys...
The probabilistic analysis is very useful when we do not have enough desired information about needed monitorred data which can help us to create a succesful deterministic earhquake forecast...
Here is an example made by me in this forecasting I used both metodology
The event happenned 2 days before us the methodology of probabilistic suggested
See the example:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/yPW0PckTG-g
and I have to wake yout attention, that from here, perhaps the earthquake forecasting is not so well organized in IRAN !
From the recent earthquake which happened in the forecasted zone, can be concluded: that April 2024 we will have another earthquake M: +5.5
I wouldn't be surprised if an M:7 happens
Regards,
Laszlo
Also see the following discussion:
https://www.researchgate.net/post/There_is_a_need_for_an_European_Earthquake_like_Disasters_Prediction_Centre
Sorry, but this is nonsense.
The seasonality of seismic activity may be random.
The earthquake itself has a precise physical connection of parameters.
Извините, но это бред.
Случайный характер может быть сезонности сейсмической активности.
Само землетрясение имеет точную физическую связь параметров.
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