On one side we can see weak business activities in Eurozone, industrial production decline in China, while on the other, oil prices have been falling sharply since June on London market having strong negative impact on oil exporting countries.
Demand for oil is closely related to economic activity. Since the industrial activities in Europe , China, and Japan are weaker, then the demand for oil will be lower.
OPEC countries can curb production to prevent this fall & even cause a rise to more than 115 $/barrel but they cannot do that due to geopolitical reasons.
The U.S.A has become the world’s largest oil producer, at present. It does not export crude oil, but it now imports much less than before. This country will not be affected that much.
Russia has already suffered a lot due to this fall which added insult to injury (at one hand, Putin’s government needs a high oil price; on the other hand, there are Western sanctions following Russia’s intervention in Ukraine). Obviously, the fall of the rouble is related to these effects.
In my analysis, some countries will have economic growth & some countries will be in deep trouble. On the global scene, those who will be hit are the majority.
Yes, It is part of the expected cycling of things, and of global economy in general.
In my country (Portugal), we believe that it has to do with the recession of births, and the fact that there are less tax payers than retired pensionists...
Of course, poorer European countries depend on the economy of the richer countries in Europe, and these depend on Oil crisis.
I also think that it is part of the expected cycling of global economy in general and its something that no one can easily control in the era of globalization.
Dear @Darko, I think that we face many new global crisis of different kinds and in many places that are of global type; some of these crises are related to economy growth due to fall of oil prices as well as raise of oil prices because at the end the winners are few companies who make huge win from the people and the poor countries.
Demand for oil is closely related to economic activity. Since the industrial activities in Europe , China, and Japan are weaker, then the demand for oil will be lower.
OPEC countries can curb production to prevent this fall & even cause a rise to more than 115 $/barrel but they cannot do that due to geopolitical reasons.
The U.S.A has become the world’s largest oil producer, at present. It does not export crude oil, but it now imports much less than before. This country will not be affected that much.
Russia has already suffered a lot due to this fall which added insult to injury (at one hand, Putin’s government needs a high oil price; on the other hand, there are Western sanctions following Russia’s intervention in Ukraine). Obviously, the fall of the rouble is related to these effects.
In my analysis, some countries will have economic growth & some countries will be in deep trouble. On the global scene, those who will be hit are the majority.
Dear Dr. Darko,
This is a very interesting question.
My thinking on this issue, that a sharp drop in oil prices is the most affected on Russia where gas and oil make up 65-70% of Russian export revenues. According to estimates by economists, the decline in oil prices to a level of $ 65 means a decline of Russia's GDP by almost 5-6% At the same time, the United States which importing cheap oil recorded a record growth of the economy.
That is the trouble we standard economic theories, namely: either they talk about shorter or larger cycles of production, or about shorter or larger cycles of crisis. Meanwhile the function of production remains untouched. The crisis we are currently seeing is not one more. It is, my via, one more pick of s structural and systemic crisis.
In other words, economic theories - and practices! - do not know about time, i.e. long-run time or history. If we look at the scene with a larger scope, the evaluation becomes much more sensitive, to say the least.
I think the fall of oil prices can negatively affect the economy of oil exporting countries, and at the same time, it can positively affect the oil importing countries.
With the reduced oil price, the winners are the oil consuming countries like the United States and China that are now buying oil at the lowest prices in years. But those that lose are countries like Russia, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia, that rely on oil revenue to balance their budgets. 'As oil prices fell, many expected OPEC members to lower their production in an effort to boost prices - but they did not. And analysts now say it is part of a long-term strategy by OPEC's most dominant member, Saudi Arabia, to keep its market share and push out competitors.' Although Saudi Arabia can have a deficit, it has been prudently managing revenues when oil prices were high and has amassed substantial capital buffers estimated by Capital Economics at $740bn, to buffer against reduced oil income.
In all this, it reminds me that when times are good, be happy but prudent, because it is not permanent. When difficult times come to us, don't be too sad, because that is also temporary.
http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/insidestory/2014/12/who-really-benefiting-from-low-oil-prices-20141221174741196603.html
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/12/analysis-saudi-arabia-big-oil-bet-2014122882453502851.html
This decrease in oil price has been as a result of an oversupply of oil in the world market by the OPEC members. The decrease is definitely expected to have serious consequences for various countries.
I agree with the views of Kamal that when the oil price go down the oil producing countries will buy less from the industrial counties and the cycle go on and on....
Dear Darko, sorry for late response! Happy New Year, let it be prosperous one to all of you! Regarding question, fall of oil prices MUST have an impact on new global crisis!
http://www.vox.com/2014/12/16/7401705/oil-prices-falling
The situation will compound itself if oil prices stay low. The junk bond market may begin to shun risky drilling companies, cutting off access to capital. Without the ability to finance drilling, smaller or more indebted oil companies may not have a future. The Wall Street Journal profiled a few fund managers who are beginning to steer clear of smaller oil companies. Moody’s Investors Service downgraded the oil and gas sector on November 25 to a “negative” outlook because of falling oil prices
http://peakoil.com/business/could-falling-oil-prices-spark-a-financial-crisis
"Who is to blame for the staggering collapse of the price of oil? Is it the Saudis? Is it the United States? Are Saudi Arabia and the U.S. government working together to hurt Russia?" Some more reading follow! Did we get some answers?
http://www.globalresearch.ca/who-is-behind-the-oil-war-and-how-low-will-the-price-of-crude-go-in-2015/5422544
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2015/01/03/The-crude-reality-of-declining-crude-oil-prices-.html
The Energy Department reported a surprise increase in U.S. crude supplies of 1.5 million barrels. Analysts were expecting a decline of 2.2 million barrels. Gasoline stocks also increased more than expected. Earlier in that week Japan reported that its economy shrunk more than expected and new factory data from China suggested further slowing there.
The IEA said several years of high oil prices prompted drillers around the world to develop new oil fields. Now that oil is surpassing demand. For example, U.S production has surged by 3.5 million barrels per day since 2008 -- more than every OPEC nation except Saudi Arabia.
http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/oil-prices-fall-again-to-lowest-level-since-2009-1.2146174
Dear friends, instead of thinking about the issue of this thread in term of accidents -sort of-, could' t we think about the oil prices as a matter of an economic and political strategy? If so, then the so-called crisis adopts a quite different face.
Dear @Carlos, this was my intention when I have attached the link in my previous answer Who Is Behind the Oil War and How Low Will the Price of Crude Go in 2015?!
I do remember, dear Ljubomir. And, of course, I agree with you. As we know, there are many "crisis" that are orchestrated, out there...
Oil industries are controlled by few international companies and firms. The prices fluctuation is organized through markets demand, the stock exchanges (bourses des valeurs), mixed with political or geopolitical data ' virtual or planned', and virtual commercial fluctuation of the stock titles (titres de bourses) plus other parameters .... So how few companies could have a global influence on the global economy and could decide of its functioning ( growth or depress).
Human needs are important in all countries with relation to population growth (logically enterprises and industrial demand of oil should be higher following the needs in lodging, food, goods, education, traditional & tourism industry , agriculture, military, technology, small and middle sized enterprises/industries (PME/I) ,......). So fossil and alternative energies are only fuel industry for other industries. It is not logical and not ethical that an industry from few firms could decide for human development or decrease, just for the purpose of its profit. Before oil industry, human have built civilizations and do not have need to collapse because of energy needs and/or organization.
May be the system should be rethink... Countries who focus their economy only on oil industry are countries with no planning and strategies of development. The resources of a country are much more important than a sole industry governed by few international firms
Dear Maria, I agree with you, that poorer European countries depend on the economy of the richer countries in Europe, and these depend on Oil crisis.
Dear, Darko @ Ljubomir @ Kamal,
what is your opinion, how Low will the Price of Crude go in 2015.?
The way crude prices is falling, it can easily go down to 40$ (or below), a barrel very soon.
Dear @Ivica, Darko has pessimistic price estimation, but maybe this article shows that Darko's value is very high!How The Price Of Oil Could Fall To Just $20 A Barrel!
http://www.businessinsider.com/how-low-can-oil-prices-go-2015-1
$Right dear friends. If we really talk about a crisis, then the oil price may fall down to around 25 a barrel.
The day when oil prices would fall to 20$, what will happen to global economy. Many world markets have already started reacting negatively.
I think that looking at a longer period of time, low oil prices do not contribute to future investments in research and development of new oil fields. The oil companies are mostly oriented to the more difficult to approach the oil fields, offshore and great depth and there is a research and production more expensive. In other words, low prices on the one hand favor the economy but on the other hand have a negative impact on the oil industry (exploration and production).
Dear dr. Darko, I agree with your thinking
For example, a consulting firm Rystad Energy recently stated that due to the fall in oil prices and lack of profitability will not be made more than $ 150 billion worth of hydrocarbon exploration.
In an interview with the oil industry newsletter „Middle East Economic Survey“, Saudi Arabian oil minister, Ali al Naimi, said that the world may never see $100 per oil barrel again. What you think it is right ?
Could the world see again $100 per oil barrel ?
Dear Darko, in the realm of possibilities it does make sense. However, in the realm of probabilities, it remains uncertain. If so, it all depends on the "rods" we work with.
This is good reading about the issue that @Darko have raised, the interview with Saudi billionaire businessman Prince Alwaleed bin Talal!
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/columnist/bartiromo/2015/01/11/bartiromo-saudi-prince-alwaleed-oil-100-barrel/21484911/
Dear Ljubomir,
Many thanks for valuable information, you're always helpful with excellent quality references.
@Darko and all, some news from my country: 'Oil woes force Malaysia to widen fiscal deficit, cut growth forecast'. But on the personal level, we are now buying RON 97 at the old price of RON 95. Many drivers have switched back to RON 97, whereas for many years, all had to use RON 95 to save some money for the household expenses.
Lower oil prices in general are "good news" for the global economy,but lower oil prices will undoubtedly weaken the financial position of companies in the energy sector. Looking at global developments related to the decline in oil prices in the Republic of Croatia, my opinion is that Croatia as a significant importer of petroleum and petroleum products should be in the group of countries that will easily benefit from falling oil prices on the world market.
Dear @Darko and friends, many experts think that food prices will go down because of lower oil prices. If so, than hungry people will benefit! "For many poor people who spend a lot of their budget on food, this is good news," said Shenggen Fan, director general of the International Food Policy Research Institute. "There is a high correlation between oil and food prices."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/12/us-food-oil-hunger-idUSKBN0KL1KU20150112
It is an interesting assessment of the International Monetary Fund according to which the loss of revenue for oil-producing countries (from the oil-rich regions of the Middle East and North Africa) could be due to the current decline in oil prices reach a total of $ 300 billion, which is about 21% of their gross domestic product....
Death of King Abdullah caused after a long time the rise in world oil market by almost 2% (price has risen to $ 47 a barrel).
I think that it's only a slight and momentary jump in prices and can hardly be expected change in oil policy of Saudi Arabia that the possible reduction in production could lose its share in the global oil market...?
Russian oil companies are reasonably well insulated from the crisis as the rouble value of their exports has soared.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/russian-currency-crisis-and-defaults-could-create-contagion-west
It's downhill for US after Saudi king dies! Dear @Darko, Saudi Aramco chief says kingdom is now pumping 9.8m barrels per day in bid to win oil price war with US shale frackers!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/11372058/Saudi-Arabia-increases-oil-output-to-crush-US-shale-frackers.html
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102362872#.
I fully agree with you Darko that, lower oil prices in general are "good news" for the global economy, but lower oil prices will undoubtedly weaken the financial position of companies in the energy sector...
On the London market in the past two weeks, oil prices have recorded the highest growth in the last 17 years (19%), as a result of the closure of wells, reducing the investment by oil companies and stimulating economic measures of the Chinese central bank...
Reinvigorated economy will depend on rising domestic consumer demand for Russian products (unlikely given high unemployment and inflation rates), another record rise in world oil prices (problematic at a time when the rest of the world is also in recession), and prudent fiscal policy––not an attractive option politically since it will require cutting, not expanding, government expenses at a time when unemployment is high, the ruble is dropping, and average Russians are feeling the economic pinch.
http://www.google.co.in/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=82&ved=0CCIQFjABOFA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fbrown.edu%2Finitiatives%2Fjournal-world-affairs%2Fsystem%2Ffiles%2Fprivate%2Farticles%2F15.2_Stoner-Weiss.pdf&ei=hbLZVMbRCsfwoASc6ILoBg&usg=AFQjCNEeAk08sdH3f2VAjJtiZNfegtrzWA&bvm=bv.85464276,d.cGU&cad=rja
At this point, it seems to me that the oil market in a globalized market formed under the influence of interest geopolitics, the supply - demand and the results of the fall in oil production and a decrease in investment by oil companies...
Due to the fall in oil prices in the world market, the US consortium Halliburton (world's second largest company that provides services to companies in the oil fields) will lay off up to eight percent of employees or even 6400 people (BBC) ...
Dear @Darko, I have got today a new issue of Plant Services, and I have found very good article Why energy supply and demand is so divisive – and how it could change?
http://www.plantservices.com/articles/2015/why-energy-supply-and-demand-is-so-divisive/?utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=16262870&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_YMIrvn7J2iSNz_KQ174EPWnyuIIFIdNvHRRNP81VI6HNpoJkRRoPk-tXST_bYP8CfCUQQrWWF1yhrswuTLZgTadecuw&_hsmi=16262870
In your opinion, what is the expected and desired level of oil prices, which should be a sign of emerging from the crisis of the global recession?
Dear @Darko,
The level of oil prices between 55-75 USD / bbl could be a sign out of the crisis period of global recession ....
I do share such opinion about the level of oil prices given by @Ivica. Here is a good reading about with many facts, figures and resources! Very fine reading!
http://www.vox.com/2014/12/16/7401705/oil-prices-falling
Dear Ljubomir and Ivica,
Thank you very much for your very detailed answers and the useful links....
No crisis (the oil industry is in a crisis), growth yes. One way to look at falling prices, I think, are the result of the ultimatum given by the UN that the oil industry should wind down by 2100 - due to increasing pollution from oil burning. You and I may survive severe weather (result of oil burning), but look at the increasing amount of fatal severe weather phenomena. It was scientists -like us - that decided on behalf of the UN and the oil industry is on the defensive and on the retreat.
Dear friends,
What is your opinion, in the short term, do you expect the price of oil headed back up or oil price may continue to drop ...
My opinion, conclusion, is that for 2015. oil prices will continue to drop...
But, it should be noted that at the same time lower prices around and below 50 USD / bbl will undoubtedly narrow the necessary long-term restructuring of the global energy industry....
Oil prices not here to stay: Both Brent and WTI continue losing streak! Fine article about!"Oil enjoyed a short rally in February after both Brent and WTI dropped below $45 per barrel in January, for the first time since 2009. Since June, crude has lost 50 percent of its value.The price fell further when OPEC producers, led by Saudi Arabia, decided to keep production as is, whereas as cut would have provided relief for oil prices.None of this is set to improve, as OPEC has signalled it won’t change its policy at its June meeting, and global demand hasn’t shifted, either." Dear @Darko, I do share your opinion!
http://rt.com/business/241889-oil-price-drop-wti/
Geopolitical risk and currency correlation between the value of the US dollar and the price of oil is one of a key factor in oil pricing
Study probes link between US dollar’s value and oil price
http://www.ogj.com/articles/2015/01/study-probes-link-between-us-dollar-s-value-and-oil-price.html
Fine article about:The Paradox of Oil, The Cheaper it is, The More it Costs
http://permaculturenews.org/2015/02/27/the-paradox-of-oil-the-cheaper-it-is-the-more-it-costs/
We do live in the world of paradox dear @Darko! "There are too many economic, geopolitical, technological, and social variables at play for any certainty. Black swans could lie around every bend in the river. The unpredictable actions of OPEC have significant implications: will they cut production after their next meeting? It is anybody’s guess. There is also the ever-present possibility of ongoing geopolitical disruptions, as evidenced especially by the instability in several oil rich nations, such as Iraq, Iran, and Russia. If a new war broke out in any of these areas, or if Russia’s economic decline intensifies, markets would be thrown into further turmoil. This could push prices back up very quickly, but high prices could assist the producers of non-conventional oil that need high prices to make any money..." Thanks for good article!
Nice observation Ljubomir,
"Life is a preparation for the future; and the best preparation for the future is to live as if there were none.”
Albert Einstein
World oil prices are expected to drop to record levels once a deal between Iran and 5+1 is reached and ratified...
http://www.upi.com/Business_News/2015/04/03/Analysts-Low-oil-prices-from-Iran-nuke-deal-will-take-time/
This is a very interesting article: Monitoring natural gas infrastructures and Oil Pipelines with Drones ..., BP is First Company Approved To Use Commercial Drones to patrol their Alaskan oil fields ....
http://www.fastcompany.com/3031725/fast-feed/oil-giant-bp-is-first-company-approved-to-use-commercial-drones
Dear @Ivica, thanks for the article. It is future, of course. Drones are becoming reality in large scale systems monitoring. It is important not only for the security, but also for the process to be controlled, integration with SCADA...!
It is a time phenomenon, related to economic cycle! The economies those are completely dependent on Oil, may be affected worsely.
"If you want your energy bills to go up, you should support an ever greater dependence on foreign oil, because the rate of new discoveries is declining as demand in China and India is growing, and the price of oil and thus the price of coal will go sky high."
Al Gore
If we observe the geostrategic changes in the operations of major oil companies can be seen that the largest merger in the oil sector typically occur during the period of cheap oil (examples, 1998 BP decided to take over the American Amoco, Exxon - Mobile great merger ..)
Shell Reaches Agreement to Buy BG Group For £47 Billion
http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/shell-reaches-agreement-to-buy-bg-group-for-47-billion-23102
Thanks dear @Ivica. You are right, this is happening when the oil's price is low. "Behind the Shell-BG deal, and the speculation of more mergers to come, is a fundamental shift in the energy industry. Contrary to some expectations, the oil-price fall has not derailed the American shale boom. The small, flexible and innovative companies which specialise in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing are proving better at cutting costs, raising productivity and adapting to market fluctuations than the lumbering giants who have long dominated the industry. Dinosaurs may mate, to ensure the survival of their species, but this is an age of mammals."
http://www.economist.com/news/business/21647944-shells-offer-bg-shows-how-energy-business-changing-vote-gas
The latest sign is when Chinese stocks plunged 8%, their largest drop in six years. Meanwhile, Brazil’s economy is stagnant and the collapse in oil prices has pushed Russia into a crippling recession. At the same time, U.S. GDP rose 5% in the third quarter, once again making the nation the driver of the world’s economy. That’s likely to lead much of the talk in Davos this year.
http://fortune.com/2015/01/20/davos-oil-terrorism-sex-scandals/
I agree with Dear @Subhash that it's related to economic cycle, and I add that the effect depends on the supply and demand sides.....
Falling oil prices: Who are the winners and losers?
Tim Bowler, Business reporter, BBC News
http://www.bbc.com/news/business
For each country that is dependent on the sale of a natural resource, the increase in the price of the malicious source and reducing costs. Naturally Natural Resource Economics of "oil" is. Of the first oil shock, leading to 4-fold increase in oil revenues in 1352, a milestone in the country's economic development. The shock of the Arab-Israeli war in 1352 and the non-oil exports to Western countries supporting Israel was created by the Arabic countries.
Unfortunately, the Dutch disease (1) coincides with the first oil shock gripped the economy.40 years to see its impact.
For the best natural source, balance, oil prices because the sudden rise in oil prices caused by the Dutch disease "oil exchange" in the form of cash into the community, which eventually resulted in the "inflation" will not.
Decline in oil prices is also devastating. So next year's budget deficit "strong" will be followed.
The government spokesman said in response to a deficit that "our economic experts for the price of $ 80 a barrel next year ahead." Predicts that there is no sign or indication for its accuracy. Saudi Arabia because your price is below $ 60 per barrel in budget year 2015 has been!
Meanwhile, now that winter Northern Hemisphere demand for oil, much of the summer, because the highest energy consumption in the Northern Hemisphere such as the Asian, European and American made. Therefore, the decrease in demand during the summer season, we should expect further reduction in oil prices in the future! Iran is a way to compensate for this budget:
- Increase in tax revenues
- Removal of foreign exchange reserves
- Request help from the private sector (such as bonds and bonds)
- Increasing the exchange rate ...
It can be said that one of the reasons for the increase in the exchange rate during the recent period (which from 3200 USD to 3500 USD per dollar reached) the state budget deficit. Because the difference is transferred to the state budget! Definitely the worst case, the withdrawal of foreign exchange reserves. For the "hyperinflation" in the community. Although oil prices in the short term at the expense of the economy, but it can be also used as an opportunity to rid the economy of oil trap.
Turkish Stream May Strengthen Turkey's Hand with Suppliers
http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/turkish-stream-may-strengthen-turkeys-hand-with-suppilers-
OIL PRICES LAY GROUNDWORK FOR HIGHER MARGINS, BUT ONLY FOR BIG PLAYERS! "...High costs and weaker oil prices could drive necessary readjustments that will strengthen the petroleum industry over the long-term..."
http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/oil-prices-lay-groundwork-higher-margins-big-players
Dear @Ivica, do you think that Turkish Stream may replace the South Stream!?
http://www.b92.net/eng/news/business.php?yyyy=2015&mm=04&dd=14&nav_id=93800
Impact of Oil Price on Stock and Foreign Exchange Markets with Special Reference to India
There are many empirical studies on the relationship between changes in oil price and stock market return. These mostly suggest an inverse relationship between these two variables for developed as well as emerging markets. The inverse relationship is justified as follows:when the oil price goes up because of a supply-side shock, the cost of doing business rises and stock price factors this to account for the drop in earnings. Many other studies which consider the demandside shock, on the other hand, report a direct relationship between oil price and stock market return.
http://www.icra.in/Files/MoneyFinance/Manish%20Kumar.pdf
Dear Ljubomir, it may be one of the important question of whether Turkish Stream represents alternative, or will be a competitor for the TANAP / TAP or .... ???
Russia Likely to End Gas Transit via Ukraine in 2019
http://www.novinite.com/articles/167874/Russia
Fuel Prices reduced yesterday in India - Cautious stepping
Since last price change, the trend of international prices of petrol and diesel and Rupee—US dollar exchange rate warrant a further downward revision in prices, the impact of which is being passed on to consumers with this price decrease- Indian Oil Corporation
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/petrol-price-cut-by-80-paise-diesel-by-rs-130-per-litre/article7105666.ece
Bulgaria seeks to redraw EU pipeline map away from Russia
Bulgaria was among the countries locked into Russia's abandoned South Stream project that would have delivered gas directly to the European Union, bypassing Ukraine, traditionally a main transit route.
http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/04/15/ukraine-crisis-bulgaria
In world, oil prices have fallen sharply over the past few months --- leading to significant revenue downturn in many oil exporting nations --- while consumers in many importing countries are beneficial --- to pay less.
Russia is one of the largest oil producing countries. Russia loses --- due to fall in the oil price. World Bank has warned that Russia's economy would shrink ---- further in 2015 if oil prices do not recover.
Cheaper oil
Winners and losers
http://www.economist.com/news/international/21627642-america-and-its-friends-benefit-falling-oil-prices-its-most-strident-critics
The first winner is the world economy itself. A 10% change in the oil price is associated with around a 0.2% change in global GDP, says Tom Helbling of the IMF. A price fall normally boosts GDP by shifting resources from producers to consumers, who are more likely to spend their gains than wealthy sheikhdoms. If increased supply is the driving force, the effect is likely to be bigger—as in America, where shale gas drove prices down relative to Europe and, says the IMF, boosted manufactured exports by 6% compared with the rest of the world. But if it reflects weak demand, consumers may save the windfall.
Oil companies are loosing --- Industries are gaining!
Due to fall of oil prices, the global economy may be benefited ---benefits may not be shared equally.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-15/cheap-oil-s-winners-and-losers-in-one-giant-map
Darko and Subhash, thanks for the good and very interesting articles.
"I believe we are in an era of lower oil prices in the medium term and also in the longer term ... We have cheap oil, cheap gas, cheap renewables. We are definitely in an age where supply is not constrained." Michael Liebreich
Oil Prices and Global Growth: Greasing the Wheels--or Gunking up the Works? "Getting a Handle on Energy: Global Growth Scenarios in Times of Changing Oil Prices examines where major economies stand today after months of depressed prices and how the growth outlook varies depending on the movement of prices in the next six months..."
https://www.virtualpressoffice.com/publicsiteContentFileAccess?fileContentId=1966988&fromOtherPageToDisableHistory=Y&menuName=News&sId=&sInfo=
The Geopolitical and Economic Consequences of Lower Oil Prices
http://www.cmegroup.com/education/files/oil-collapse-winners-and-losers.pdf
I think it is realistic to expect an increase in the price of oil, because it arises from the need of exploration and discovery of oil in geologically complex structures. Analytical market indicators show the assessment of the expected oil prices for some 3-5 years between 75-85 US dollars per barrel...
Never ending story of opportunities: Caspian blue energy is salvation for EU
http://www.azernews.az/analysis/80563.html
Anyway, global oil production in 2015 and 2016 will be a contest between members of OPEC and unconventional producers. However, in the longer term, the world will need more oil, which implies increase in the prices from their current ....
The South Stream will be replaced with the Turkish Stream pipeline, which would deliver gas to a hub on the Turkish-Greek border for further distribution to consumers in southern Europe.
“The Asian gas market will soon become the determining factor in pricing policy for the European market,
Undoubtedly, it must be understood that in the near future, the pricing policy for the European market will be the Asian market,” Miller said.
Read more: http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150413/1020824225.html#ixzz3Xvlrpxqb
The Geopolitical Potential of the US Energy Boom
Michael A Levi
In this testimony before the US House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs, the CFR's Michael Levi reviews both the geopolitical advantages and risks of the US energy boom, particularly in relation to Russia...
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