Gas field South Pars that is placed in the Persian Gulf is the biggest gas field in the world. According to some data it could cover all gas cosumption needs of EU countries for  the next 100 years....

Well, I'm not an expert in the field, but I think it is not highly probable for Europe for the following reasons: physical distance; huge investments in infrastruture already done between Russia and Europe; islam.  

Gas field South Pars that is placed in the Persian Gulf is the biggest gas field in the world. According to some data it could cover all gas cosumption needs of EU countries for  the next 100 years....

It remains a question of supply and demand, dear Darko!

Due to US sanctions, Iran has been forced to operate on its own for a while.  Nevertheless, Iran has the second largest gas reserves in the world after the Russian. For two decades, its production growth has increased by an average of 10 percent, yet Iran has only depleted 5 percent of its gas reserves.

Iran has huge reserves of gas, potential, and determination to become self dependent and thus can  strongly returns on global gas market; however, the replacement of Russian gas is not possible and there is no need for this because the demand on gas grows.

Concerning U.S. sanctions, Obama favors renegotiating them, while the Republicans (conservatives of the U.S. Congress) prefer increasing them. If the Republicans come into power, the status quo will remain.

It looks that oil has become a tool for sanctions, and international politics. Let alone that there have been wars for oil. Thinking to convert "oil" from a factor of instability to a factor of piece, there should be an international independent organisation which determines the prices and all related to oil. This is a dream but let us dream a little!

Presently, I believe that yes, west can use Iran's oil to continuo pressing Russia.   

It is a market function, in market competitive pressures work.

Geopolitical issues/efforts are not permanent.

Dear Darko, 

I think it's a market function and fully depends on the supply-demand matrix. As far as geopolitical issues, these are all dynamic and cannot be controlled.

If whole gas runs out except Iran, Iran will be the best friend of USA

if Saudi x-head kept her own daughters under house arrest and had upto 30 wives, but had oil, is the best friend of USA

South Pars gas field is one of the largest independent gas reservoirs in the world lying on the territorial border between Iran and the State of Qatar in the Persian Gulf. It is one of the country's main energy resources.

This gas field covers an area of 9700 square kilometers, of which 3700 square kilometers belongs to Iran. The Iranian portion is estimated to contain some 14 TCM of gas reserves and some 18 bn bl of gas condensates. This amounts to roughly 7.5 % of the world gas reserves and approximately half of the Iran’s gas reserves.

Presently, some precise and sophisticated projects have been designed for development of 24phases to produce 790 million cubic meters of gas per day. South Pars gas field development shall meet the growing demands of natural gas, injection into oil fields, gas and condensate export as feedstock for petrochemical industries.

An iranian official said China, Japan, Ukraine, Russia, United Arab Emirates, India, Turkey, Iraq, Taiwan, Thailand, Malaysia, Armenia, Mozambique, Egypt, Qatar, Tanzania, Philippines, Kenya, Azerbaijan, Georgia, South Korea and Mexico are among destinations.

He said that international sanctions have not had any impact on South Pars’ exports to European and American countries.

South Pars exported 892,000 tons of gas condensate worth $807 million dollars in one month. Gas condensate accounted for half of the products exported from South Pars.

Pars Special Economic Energy Zone is located in the Persian Gulf and is 105 kilometers away from the massive South Pars gas field.

http://www.pogc.ir/Default.aspx?tabid=136

http://theiranproject.com/blog/2015/01/26/south-pars-supplies-products-to-22-countries/

“Politics is the art of the possible, the attainable — the art of the next best”― Otto von Bismarck. Iran may , on geopolitical accounts, have all the sanctions left with a return to the market & its gas supplies may replace the other's supplies or may add to them. Politics governs economic decision & politics has always been like moving sands.

Optimization of energy consumption in Iran and expanding the use of CNG instead of gasoline in the country are other issued placed high on the agenda of the ministry.

http://peakoil.com/consumption/iran-working-on-large-scale-plans-to-export-gas-to-europe

Dear Behrouz and Krishnan, many thanks for valuable and quality references.

Studies conducted by the European Parliament show that Iran has the potential to export about 25-30 billion cubic meters of gas per year to Europe. At this point, Iran holds about 1.5% of world gas trade, and that in the near future, Iran has become a major supplier of gas has to invest in gas infrastructure, which is due to sanctions and lack of investment under-developed and maintained.

Dear @Darko, regarding the issue you have raised, the following analysis give many aspects of the problem! "If the United States and its partners can reach a deal with Iran, all players must understand the potential consequences of Iran's reentry into the global oil and regional gas market. Most immediately, tensions could surge with other energy producers, such as Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. The downward spiral of global oil prices would also be reinforced. Tehran, it must be noted, could face serious difficulties finding markets for expanded output and attracting the needed investment in production and gas transit facilities. But in the long term, expanded Iranian output could create more supply options for European and Asian gas markets."

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/a-nuclear-deal-with-iran-the-impact-on-oil-and-natural-gas-trends

From yesterday's news (27/1), horns are presently locked in the U.S. Congress, while Republicans argue for increasing sanctions on Iran, and Democrats for listening to the President and holding off on sanctions pending Iran´s behavior on developing nuclear weapons or not.  If the Republican majority votes to impose new sanctions, President Obama threatens to veto them (see State of the Union Address, 2015).  I think the Iran-U.S. geopolitical relationship will remain in a state of flux in the near future.  This fluidity makes Iran´s return to the global gas market a greater possibility.  Note well: the POSSIBILITY is real, to answer Darko´s question, but possibility differs from REALIZATION or actualization of that possibility. 

Iran and Russia are unreliable sources of gas and oil, as trying to play their own geopolitical game and actively resist to globalization.

Unlike what Anatoliy thinks I found EU and US more unreliable and are better game player than Iran. Further more "actively resist to globalization" is not a bad think and better than being double standard..

Dear Mahmoud,

In a democratic transparent society, double standards aren't possible. Do not succumb to the anti-American and anti-European propaganda like Russians.

Dear Anatoliy,

You said: 1) "Iran is unreliable source of gas and oil", 2) "trying to play her own geopolitical game" and 3) "actively resist to globalization".  All you said seems not only insult but pure speculation and propaganda against Iran. Is this the way you teach in an International Humanitarian University!

Should not we instead address the question? The facts are clear and easy to understand if we leave out propaganda and false News. Iran  has the second largest gas reserves in the world (after Russia) and she has the potential for providing such services to EU. Remember we already made the necessary infrastructure (pipeline) all the way to Turkey. So it is feasible, reliable, cheap and competent. This is what the question was about.

I think it is  a matter of supply and demand.

Iran currently holds 1.5-2 % of the global gas trade and the studies conducted by the European Parliament indicate that Iran has potential to export 25-30 bcm of gas a year to Europe...

The geopolitical point of view, a greater role in the future of the Iranian gas to the European market will certainly increase the security of gas supply in the EU.

As @Ivica have mentioned, the security of gas supply in the EU is of the major importance. The following contribution treats this important matter! "...Security of energy supply is now high on the EU Commission's agenda. In May 2014, the Commission published its "European Energy Security Strategy" which was followed in July 2014 by a 263 page "In-depth study of European Energy Security." At the core of the Commission's strategy is cooperation between Member States, and the development of a fully integrated and transparent energy market in the EU. The EU Commission identifies the many hurdles to achieve a well-functioning internal energy market, and recognises that they can only be overcome with a combination of new EU Directives to be adopted across all Member States, and new infrastructure – particularly in the EU's most vulnerable areas.... The widely held view in the market is that Europe is not a prime market for US LNG, as Europe cannot compete with Asia on price. At a recent London Stock Exchange breakfast briefing on Europe's energy future, the message was clear that LNG will fail to dominate the European gas sector and cannot be an absolute guarantor of energy security "

There was no word about Iran! Political circumstances are changing so fast, so EESS should be adapted soon!

http://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=95fd1509-7b82-41ad-869f-d5b6f7a5da58

There is a high possibility, provided its tie-up is more foreign across the globe. 

Dear Mahmoud,

If you have a gas, it does not mean that you are a smart man.

Please do not praise people just because there have oil and gas. Smart people build high-tech economy like Japanese and do not live in the hope on higher prices of energy resources.

I wish Iran to become a democratic country and take its rightful place in the global energy balance.

Dear Anatoliy, You keep sending false signals! We do not live in the hope on higher prices of energy resources, we live under unjust sanctions! Otherwise, we are OK. We don't believe in New World Order conspiracy, neither.

Countries, including Ukraine, would have difficulty replacing Russian natural gas supplies in the immediate term and more so this winter, were relations with Moscow to deteriorate to the point of a cutoff. But the recent easing of European and Asian spot natural gas prices in recent weeks are a longer term sign that Russia should think twice about how many times it can overplay its “cut-off threat” hand. Markets have their own ways of correcting over time for problems like Russian revisionism, and the global natural gas market could easily move to a supply glut in the coming years.

http://theenergycollective.com/amjaffe/397676/does-future-gas-glut-shape-russian-decision-making-russia-ukraine-conflict

I agree with your point of view dear Nizar.

Krishnan, Ukraine has already replaced 60% of gas imports from Russia on gas from Europe (Poland, Slovakia and Hungary). The plans of the Ukrainian government has a complete rejection of Russian gas in 2-3 years.

Ukraine passed a budget on December 29th (though for the next month or so it is subject to revisions). That means that the International Monetary Fund, which has been supporting Ukraine financially for the past few months, will return to Kiev today. The IMF will be looking to disperse two more dollops of money, probably worth around $3 billion in total. So far it has lent about $5 billion. Ukraine has also cleared big debts with Russia for gas imports. But next year’s debt repayments and gas bills will probably send them into the red. The biggest payment comes in December, when Ukraine needs to repay a $3 billion bond to Russia.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2015/01/ukraines-economy

Plunging oil strengthens Ukraine's hand in Russia gas talks :Ukraine has a stronger hand to play at talks with Russia on gas supplies thanks to the fall in oil prices, which has dragged down gas prices, and after showing it can live on less.Neither side wants to give way at talks on a new supply deal that are expected to start soon -- but both need each other.Russia, in financial crisis, needs the Ukraine market and the revenue it sends to the budget.

Can Ukraine Survive Without Russian Gas Supplies? Fine watch!

Dear @Anatoliy, I doubt that Ukrainian government has a a replacement for complete rejection of Russian gas in 2-3 years! Some good analysis follow, very different points of view!

Different scenarios have been treated!

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/28/russia-crisis-ukraine-gas-idUSL6N0V71KJ20150128

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/b/c586769c-efe2-4997-a94a-deabda0a325d

http://ukrainianweek.com/Politics/117301

http://uk.saxomarkets.com/tradingdebates/europe-survive-without-russian-gas

http://www.euractiv.com/sections/energy/stress-test-measures-eus-capacity-survive-without-russian-gas-309268

Dear Krishnan and Ljubomir. Thank you for explaining of the Ukrainian problems :)

Every month I analyze gas consumption and gas transit in Ukraine.

Ukraine annually consumes from 45 to 55 billion cubic meters of natural gas.

Considering the occupation of the Crimea and the Eastern industrial region by the Russian troops, industrial enterprises there do not work. Therefore, in 2015 it is expected to significantly lower gas consumption.

Annual own gas production in Ukraine is about 20 billion cubic meters

The rest is imported.

Poland in 2015 gives us 1.5 billion cubic meters per year, Slovakia - 12 billion cubic meters, Hungary - 0,75 billion cubic meters.

The rest our government plans to buy from Russia - not more than 10 billion cubic meters.

The price must be significantly lower than in 2014 due to the fall in world oil prices and a 9 month lag between oil and gas prices.

Thus, the dependence on Russia in 2015 will not exceed 25% of total consumption of natural gas in Ukraine.

Dear @Anatoliy, I did not explain the the Ukrainian problems to you, as you have stated, followed by smiley, it was not my intention! I have just expressed my opinion about your prognosis : " I doubt that Ukrainian government has a a replacement for complete rejection of Russian gas in 2-3 years!"

I have based such statement on different resources which I have brought to the followers of this thread! So, I have just expressed my doubt!

Dear @Anatoliy, please attach some links to the resources you are speaking about. Thanking You in advance!

Ljubomir, some official info about the prospects of Ukrainian gas consumption you can read here:

http://www.naftogaz.com/www/3/nakweben.nsf/0/84E7CBD16D38F6E0C2257DD600334EB1?OpenDocument&year=2015&month=01&nt=News&

Thanks, but could you submit some analysis about gas consumption and gas transit in Ukraine, as You have mentioned that You do every month!? Thanks in advance!

Regarding the resource you have sent, I will quote "In an interview, Naftogas chief executive Andriy Kobolyev said supplies from Russia could drop in a few years to just a third of total Ukrainian imports as Ukraine takes advantage of its ability to import more from the liberalised European markets." This coincides with my predictions!

Ljubomir, next month will be published my paper about Ukrainian natural gas market, so you will have a chance to read the details.

Thanks dear @Anatoliy. I will read it with pleasure as well as the followers of this thread! Kind regards!

Russia is not North Korea or Cuba - it can not be long isolate. This is also not in anyone's interest. However, Europe should, taken (in cooperation with the United States) the decision to limit the role of Russian gas in the European energy mix. Iran woulb be a good choice, but I guess opening to Iran will not be easy, not only because sanctions, but also because of the Russian "protection" over Iran - Russia built Iran's first nuclear power plant in Bushehr and supplies fuel to it.

I also think that very interested in such a solution would be another very important player in the gas puzzle - Turkey.

In the past 20 years, the energy markets of EU countries were subject to privatisation and deregulation. Governments were focused on neither the political and strategic importance of energy nor the creation of a common EU energy market.

The share of Russia’s gas in total gas imports differs widely among EU countries, from 0% for countries such as Spain and the UK to 100% for countries such as Bulgaria and Lithuania. The fragmented EU gas market means that particularly smaller EU countries with a strong dependence on Russian gas, such as the latter two, lack any real bargaining power vis-à-vis Russia. The downward trend of Russia’s share in EU gas imports and the fact that Russian gas accounts for a mere 7% of the EU energy supply incorrectly suggest, as this analysis will show, that Russia’s dominance of the EU gas market is diminishing and limited.

http://www.exploringgeopolitics.org/publication_efferink_van_leonhardt_russian_gas_exports_potential_eu_demand_internal_energy_internal_market_deregulation_imports_trade_production_consumption/

Many questions arise! @Jessica, I do agree somehow on Turkey's role! Could Turkey Become the New Ukraine? "Turkey, a member of NATO, has long been aligned with the United States and European Union when it comes to Black Sea economics and geopolitics. Turkish Stream, however, could nudge Ankara toward the middle ground between the West and Russia."

"Top officials from Azerbaijan, Georgia, Greece, Albania, Bulgaria and Italy will also attend the meeting, which will be held in Baku, Azerbaijan. Since providing energy supply security has become one of the top issues of governments, Turkey undertakes a key role as a natural gas corridor. CEOs and other top-level executives of companies that are involved in the Trans Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline Project (TANAP) and the Trans Adriatic Natural Gas Pipeline Project (TAP) will also participate to the meeting."

http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Europe/Could-Turkey-Become-the-New-Ukraine.html

http://www.dailysabah.com/energy/2015/02/11/turkeyazerbaijan-south-gas-corridor-is-on-the-table

http://www.novinite.com/articles/166510/Turkey+Determined+to+Build+TANAP+Gas+Pipeline

Dear Ljubomir,

My paper is already in press. You can read it (link is attached)

This paper is for all people who interested in Ukrainian gas market. Welcome.

http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1108/IJESM-04-2014-0004

A View from Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE)

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/thierry-deschuyteneer-gas-infrastructure-europe-22311‎

Thierry Deschuyteneer, Executive Secretary at Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE).

" ... Let’s make a distinction between what the market needs and what is required to ensure security of supply. For instance LNG terminals are currently used at low capacity.You will not see investment decisions for such projects unless they will lead to an increase in diversification, playing their important role in security of supply. In the Balkan area, for example, this could be the case. But we are not speaking about 50 bcm/yera. We are speaking about smaller projects. Other upstream developments, like TAP for example, are underpinned by commercial reasons. In general, I don’t think that new supply projects would be subsidised by Europe. A new infrastructure paid by Europe - one from Algeria to Italy for example - is unrealistic. 

Dear @Darko, I do agree with you about non-feasibility of such project Algeria - Italy! But, Italy Still Interested in Galsi Pipeline Project, last reports say! 2013 Europe gas suppliers are given on the following scheme!

http://allafrica.com/stories/201502030991.html

http://rt.com/business/235319-eu-gas-caspian-algeria/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GALSI

Dear colleagues,

Thank you very much for your opinion and for sharing your point of view .

These information are very useful.

Prospects for Iran’s Gas Production, Usage and Export

Iran’s natural gas production has reached 660 million cubic meters per day (mcm/d) and the country is expected to increase this volume to 760 mcm/d by next spring.

Iran has so far completed South Pars field’s phases 1 to 10. Meanwhile, phases 12, 15 to 18 opened early and were expected to become fully operational within a year.

Iran wants to increase South Pars gas production from its current levels of 350 mcm/d to 800 mcm/d by 2019. This requires completing 19 new phases of South Pars (Phases 11 to 29) with investing at least $43 billion. This means that Iran’s natural gas production would stand at least at 1,100 mcm/d by 2019 totall

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/prospect-of-irans-gas-production-usage-and-export-23322

Iran May Give Europe LNG Boost Once Nuclear Sanctions Lifted

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-07/iran-may-give-europe-lng-boost-once-nuclear-sanctions-lifted

Prerequisite for such situation where Iran could help Europe  is to suspend Iranian economic isolation! "Good diplomats find opportunities in crises, and Iran's policy makers seem to be following the rule..."

http://www.irna.ir/en/News/81599551/

http://www.rferl.org/content/iran-says-ready-to-supply-natural-gas-to-europe-/25386226.html

Iran is unlikely to restart full-fledged oil and gas supplies to the global market before the beginning of 2016

Even if Iran returns to the global market, --- one has to understand that its potential share of oil is currently supplied by Saudi Arabia, ---

http://tass.ru/en/economy/788367

Iranian Official: Gas Exports to Europe Not Economic

“Given a decline in the gas price in that continent, it is not at the moment economically feasible to export gas to Europe,” Mohsen Qamsari, director for international affairs of the National Iranian Oil Company

http://www.tasnimnews.com/english/Home/Single/735844

In addition to Russian gas possible options for natural gas supply of the EU as supply pipelines from Algeria and Libya. Where by the Algerian gas suitable to supply Southeast Europe, while the supply capacity of the pipeline from Libya, suited to the south and east of Europe.

This is good article The Dash for Gas How Iran’s Gas Supply Can Change the Course of Nuclear Negotiations! "While the European Union is not importing any oil and gas from Iran to date, the long-term potential of opening and stabilizing trade patterns with the energy-rich country should be carefully considered. This is especially important given that alternative energy suppliers en par with Russian gas exports are few and an EU increase in energy efficiency measures and renewable energy sources remains incomparable in scale and impact. With falling oil prices currently falling below the benchmark price required for the Iranian government to balance their federal budget, a window of opportunity has opened up for the two counterparties to find a way out of their impasse.

From a supply perspective, Iran’s gas production volumes are more than promising..."

http://hir.harvard.edu/archives/11152

Azerbaijan, Iran, Turkmenistan etc. – Contenders to Bring Gas to Europe Through Turkey or Not?

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/azerbaijan-iran-turkemistan-contenders-bring-gas-europe

Can Iran really enter the European energy market and challenge Russia?

Alexey Khlebnikov

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/articles/europe/19291-can-iran-really-enter-the-european-energy-market-and-challenge-russia

Implications of Iranian nuclear deal on GCC, China and Russia! "The potential signing of a nuclear deal with Iran, considering some of the leaked details, is likely to cause a great deal of tension for the Obama administration and the Middle East.

The presumed deal will give Iran the ability to regain many of its frozen financial assets; will facilitate a strong return of Iran to the global oil market; will allow Iran to keep all its nuclear facilities and technologies; and will not restrain Iran form interfering in the affairs of its neighbours.

As Washington shifts its attention to the Asia-Pacific and seeks to avoid costly military engagements in the Middle East, Iran’s ambitions could complicate the US attempt by destabilising the region, accelerating the demise of the unipolar system in the Middle East which will result in an era of a new arms race."

Dear @Darko, geopolitics is your favourite topic, right?

http://www.gulf-times.com/opinion/189/details/443421/implications-of-iranian-nuclear-deal-on-gcc,-china-and-russia

"Iran, Turkey Agree to Boost Gas Export with Discount"

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/iran-turkey-agree-to-boost-gas-export-with-discount-24334

Iran says it has reached an agreement with Turkey on increase gas export at a relatively modified price.

What The Iran Deal Could Mean For Natural Gas Markets

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/What-The-Iran-Deal-Could-Mean-For-Natural-Gas-Markets.html

Will an Iran deal lower gas prices? Maybe eventually, experts say

http://www.carolinalive.com/news/story.aspx?id=1229864#.Vbupx9y9RFo

Iran’s return to oil market to weigh on crude price

This was written before sanctions were removed!

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/041eb416-2a0c-11e5-acfb-cbd2e1c81cca.html#axzz3hV7Iwa6C

Dear Ljubomir,

Thank you for these interesting links...

Iran says piping gas to EU not economical

http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2015/08/01/422835/Iran-Gas-Pipeline-Europe-Not-Economical

"Alireza Kameli, the managing director of the National Iranian Gas Export Company (NIGEC), has been quoted by Iran’s domestic media that piping natural gas to Europe is not economically justifiable under the present conditions."

The Triangular Relationship of Russia Iran and Turkey

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/triangular-relation-russia-iran-and-turkey-24877

Thanks for fine and interesting resource dear Darko

Yes, Interesting and factual! Dear Darko Pavlović.

Iran says it is in talks with Azerbaijan on joint gas exports

"Iran has announced the beginning of negotiations with Azerbaijan on joint exports of natural gas to global markets, the ISNA news agency said on Monday"

http://www.news.az/articles/economy/100238

Will Iran Focus On Oil Rather Than Gas?

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/will-iran-focus-on-oil-rather-than-on-gas-25020

Despite the possible hurdles for Iranian gas exports to Europe, the International Energy Agency acknowledged the potential of Teheran. On Wednesday, the Paris-based organisation said that Iran could raise its oil output by as much as 730,000 barrels per day (bpd).

Iranian gas strategy seems to hinge on stronger ties with European companies, and also on renewed cooperation with Azerbaijan.

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/iran-to-unveil-contracts-by-year-end-24960

Global powers and Iran have today in Vienna reached what has been described as a historic deal, where Iran agreed it would scale down its nuclear program, in return for the crippling economic sanctions being eased and eventually lifted against the oil and gas rich Middle Eastern nation.

https://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/iran-getting-ready-to-return-to-world-oil-gas-market-after-nuclear-deal-reached/

Iran Sees High Gas Output, Increase in Usage Growth

"Iran, with 34 trillion cubic meters of gas, as well as 158 billion barrels of oil reserves, ranks second and forth as primary energy holder in the world, but due to huge consumption rates, it is suffering from energy shortage"

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/iran-sees-high-gas-output-increase-in-usage-growth-25085

Winners and losers from Iran’s eventual return to global energy markets

One of the most consequential international agreements signed in decades – the nuclear deal reached with Iran in Vienna last week – may also prove to be a turning point in global energy markets. Once implemented, it brings one of the world’s leading holders of oil and gas back into world markets.

http://www.thenational.ae/business/energy/winners-and-losers-from-irans-eventual-return-to-global-energy-markets

Dear Subhash,

Yes, I agree with you.

Baku tells Tehran to join EU pipeline plan

Iran’s media say Azerbaijan has officially proposed to Iran to join a key project to export natural gas to Europe.

http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2015/08/18/425237/Baku-Tells-Tehran-to-Join-EU-Pipeline-Plan

Dear @Darko, the required export volumes to Europe will be reached in this case. This is very good news!

"Fitch in a statement released on Friday said Iran has the long-term potential to become one of the world's top gas producers, thanks to its 34 trillion cubic meters (tcm) of natural gas reserves, or around 18% of the world's total..."

http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2015/07/11/419834/Fitch-Iran-Gas-Exports-2020

TAP's Managing Director: Iran not to join project

“TAP envisages only transportation of Azerbaijani gas to Italy through Greece and Albania. TAP is not competing with other gas pipeline projects in the region. We didn’t have any contact with Iran or propose the country to join the project. TAP is acting in accordance with EU legislation and related sanctions. Thus, the project has always been open to all companies that could bring strategic value to it,” TAP's Managing Director Ian Bradshaw

http://www.news.az/articles/economy/100440

Iranian Gas May Not Flow Through Turkey

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/iranian-gas-transit-turkey-issues-25147

Iran's natural gas exports increased slightly over the past few years. However, Iran exports only a small volume of natural gas, because most of its production is domestically consumed. Nonetheless, international sanctions have also affected Iran's natural gas sector. Iran's natural gas sector has been expanding, but production growth has been lower than expected as a result of the lack of foreign investment and technology

http://csis.org/files/publication/150817_Impact_Agreement_Iran.pdf

“As soon as Iranian oil becomes available, we will certainly start buying again. Motor Oil was always very fond of Iranian crude,” said Loukas Tripelopoulos of Motor Oil Hellas SA. The removal of international sanctions would be a game changer for the Islamic Republic, which has one of the world’s highest crude oil reserves.

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/What-The-Iran-Deal-Could-Mean-For-Natural-Gas-Markets.html

Iran to offer three gas fields for investment at London conference! 

"Iran will offer three gas fields to foreign investors at a conference in London later this year, an Iranian official said on Wednesday.

Development of North Pars, Golshan and Ferdowsi gas fields will be offered to investors at the upcoming London conference where Iran is due to unveil its new contract model...

Many foreign energy companies have already shown interest in reestablishing business in Iran, with delegations of leading business figures from European and Asian countries have been visiting Tehran over the past weeks..."

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/08/26/uk-iran-nuclear-gas-development-idUKKCN0QV1OF20150826

Reasons for Iran to focus on South Pars gas field

"Iran says it is preparing to commence 15 new phases of South Pars gas field in three years, while 5 phases of the giant field have become operational during the last two years..."

http://en.trend.az/business/energy/2428192.html

Azerbaijan – sole route for Iranian gas to Europe

"Even during the period of sanctions, Iran wasn't hiding its intention to sell gas to European markets.And now the expected lifting of sanctions and the resumption of relations with the West increases the chances for Iranian gas reaching those markets.Iran’s geographical location makes it possible for the country to bring its gas to markets in Europe only via the routes going through Turkey or Azerbaijan."

http://en.trend.az/business/energy/2428625.html

Russia and its oil are likely to be losers in Iran deal

"Oil companies in Europe, especially the Mediterranean market, are eager to strike upstream exploration and production contracts in Iran and will want to show that they are eager to resume business ties there," Morse said. "The best short-term way to do that is to buy more Iranian crude, and the main victims of that will be Russia along with Iraq."

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/16/russian-and-its-oil-are-likely-to-be-losers-in-iran-deal.html

US oil ends down at $38.24 a barrel; lowest since February 2009!

"Multi-year lows in oil prices have so far failed to trigger action from the world's top producers to rein in output, though Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said on Sunday that holding an emergency OPEC meeting could be effective in stabilizing prices, Iran's oil ministry news agency Shana reported..."

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/23/us-crude-dips-to-around-40-on-demand-concerns-supply-glut.html

The Dash for Gas How Iran’s Gas Supply Can Change the Course of Nuclear Negotiations

Realistically, Europe must pursue a win-win strategy with Iran where an easing of sanctions would entail a reciprocated of game-changing magnitude, able to address its main energy supply dilemma. The long-term substitution of Russian gas with supply from Iran is one potential solution. For Iran, replacing Russia as the EU’s long-term gas supplier is a highly lucrative avenue worth exploring, particularly as the recent drops in oil prices have started to impact the government’s federal budget. As a result, the implications for the relationship between Iran and Russia will have to be carefully addressed; where, in recent years they have developed closer economic ties but historically have maintained more of a tense relationship.

http://hir.harvard.edu/archives/11152

Transcript: Ali Larijani's Full NPR Interview On Iran Nuclear Deal: the speaker of Iran's Parliament, Ali Larijani about Iran after sanctions.

" We — we are going to facilitate investments, foreign or domestic investments, to be made in the energy sector, like in oil, gas and petrochemicals. We — we have already passed three legislations in the parliament that makes it easier for investors to invest in Iran. So, we are trying to cut down the bureaucratic difficulties, and also the period of time that is needed to give an answer to an investor. And we have also set up a national development fund and the money that people are now talking about, the frozen assets, if they are released, then they will come to this fund. And this is going to work like a guarantee for the private sector in such endeavors. Another priority we have set for ourselves is that we are going to have transfer technology into the country. Iran is a market — is a big market with a population of 18 million people. And through Iran, one can also get access to the neighboring countries, like in Central Asia. So overall, it is, like, 300 million people. And Iran has a skilled workforce, that's why we want the transfer of technology into the country..."

http://www.npr.org/2015/09/08/437565302/transcript-ali-larijanis-full-npr-interview-on-iran-nuclear-deal

Spain Ready to Export Iranian LNG to Europe

"Spain’s Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Garcia-Margallo, Industry, Energy and Tourism Minister Jose Manuel Soria and Public Works and Transport Minister Ana Maria Pastor Julian are visiting Iran for three days of talks with Iranian officials. "Spain can act as a canal for Iran's gas exports to Europe," Soria was reported as saying, referring to the country’s LNG infrastructure. According to a separate note published by Shana, Spain could then export Iran LNG to Europe. Also Sofia is considering opportunities stemming from the removal of sanctions against Iran. Bulgarian authorities have already leaked their intentions of resurrecting the Nabucco project to media, which will now be centred on Iranian gas sources..."

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/spain-ready-to-export-iranian-lng-to-europe-25321

The coming Russia-Iran energy axis

Russia tries to gain a foothold, not a competitor.

"Iran has long been seen as a potentially big new gas exporter both in the EU, which is trying to reduce its reliance on Russian gas, and in Asia, where countries are under pressure from wide supply-demand gaps and hefty LNG import bills..."

http://www.politico.eu/article/iran-russia-gas-lng-gazprom-energy/

Worth reading and informative, Dear Arar Ivica.

Russia, Iran and Eurasian Energy Politics (M K Bhadrakumar)

http://www.japanfocus.org/-M_K-Bhadrakumar/2613/article.html

"... But the most important consideration for Russia will be that Iran's energy policy should not come into conflict with Russian interests. Once the US's engagement of Iran commences, Tehran will have plenty of choice while accessing foreign capital and advanced upstream oil and gas technology. Iran is bound to probe gas markets such as Turkey, the Balkans and central and east Europe. Also, Iran is keen to develop a new LNG industry. Over and above, Iran could well end up competing with Russia as a major oil and gas route connecting the Caspian and Central Asian energy producing countries. Cooperation with Iran is no less important for Russia in terms of Caspian Sea issues. True, the two countries have divergent views on how the Caspian Sea should be divided. Russia prefers a median line solution, whereas Iran has insisted on an equal share (20%) solution for each littoral state regardless of the length of coastline. All the same, Russia and Iran are in profound agreement in their opposition to the US-led trans-Caspian pipeline projects..."

More Iranian Oil Could Hit The Market Now That Iran Deal Is Assured!

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/More-Iranian-Oil-Could-Hit-The-Market-Now-That-Iran-Deal-Is-Assured.html

This is very interesting Paper, dear Ljubomir.

The removal of sanctions on Iran would not affect a near-term shift in global energy markets, even though there could be material impact on short-term oil prices but on long term it will facilitate Iran’s ability to attract energy sector investments and generate energy revenues.

http://www.cnas.org/sites/default/files/publications-pdf/CNAS%20Report_Iran%20Sanctions_062215_final.pdf

Russia’s gas pipeline strategy and Europe’s alternatives

... what will happen to European gas markets, should Moscow stop using Ukrainian pipelines after 2019? First, Europe might be left without Russian gas going through Ukraine by the early 2020s. The implications of this scenario may be rather dramatic for Europe, had we not lived through a period of rising energy demand, and by implication prices, post-Fukushima. Europe without Russian gas through Ukraine (ca. 70 billion cubic metres per year) is tantamount to Northeast Asia without Japan’s entire nuclear power fleet.

http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_russias_gas_pipeline_strategy_and_europes_alternatives_3065

Iranian Gas to Europe: Years Down the Road

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/iranian-gas-to-europe-years-down-the-road-25467

"... Iranian gas reserves are the second largest in the world, but thus far they have not made an impact in international markets. Now that the nuclear deal with Iran looks to be implemented and international sanctions likely lifted (barring any unforeseen circumstances), there has been much talk of Europe capitalizing upon this potential new source to diversify its sources of natural gas..."

Dear  Subhash and Darko,

Very informative and interesting Paper!

Iran to Supply Gas to Europe Within the Next Twelve Months?

"On 14th July, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, declared that, "new horizons emerge with a focus on shared challenges", following the historic agreement reached to limit Iran's nuclear power in exchange for the phasing out of sanctions. New horizons indeed, as Iran's monumental reserves of natural gas could be poised to supply Europe, by some estimates, in as little as one year. The effect of this could change gas supply dynamics in the region significantly: seeing massive capital investments in energy infrastructure between Europe and the Middle East, and ushering in a new era of trade and commercial cooperation..."

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/iran-to-supply-gas-to-europe-within-the-next-twelve-months-527633821.html

Iran’s Gas Export to the EU: When, How and How Much?

"While Iranian officials have prioritized the export of gas on regional markets, hopes for delivering Iranian blue fuel to the European Union in the long term is rising.Iran and the P5+1 (the US, UK, France, Russia, China + Germany) reached a nuclear deal on July 14th, which paved the way for the elimination of sanctions on Iran by late 2015, including a gas import ban by the EU.Iran increased gas production by 10 percent to 202 billion cubic meters per annum (bcm/a) last fiscal year, ending on March 20th, while the figure re-increased by 5 percent during the current fiscal year, according to Iran’s Oil Ministry. However, all of the increased output has been absorbed by domestic sectors, while the huge gas shortage in some sectors like electricity generation and re-injection to oil fields continues. Iran says it has planned to increase gas production to about 400 bcm/a by 2019..."

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/iran-gas-export-to-eu-wood-mackenzie-analysts-25479

This is very interesting Paper, dear Darko.

7 Countries, 12 Companies, 2,200 miles, 0 Russian Gas? Priceless.

It is somewhat ironic that while Iran has been under economically crushing sanctions since the US first applied them in 1979, that this time around they will actually have the best stack of chips at the bargaining table. The EU is caught between a rock—their recent Russian sanctions—and a hard place—the lifting of sanctions imposed on Iran over the past decades.

http://katusaresearch.com/7-countries-12-companies-2200-miles-0-russian-gas-priceless/