Smart energy could be the solution.

 Darko, Good question!

Although it is always difficult to predict the future of global oil (energy) markets, as the Nikola Tesla said:„Energy, it is the key problem of the future - a matter of life or death. The current energy sources are unreliable and poison our planet. Perhaps survive the poisoning, but the day will come when these energy sources will dry up“.

Smart energy could be the solution.

I agree with dear Kamal that renewable energy is expected to be the future that can replace it as the ‘connective tissue’ in the economy and in the world.

The answer is easy (renewable energy), its application in current practice is more difficult (too many echonomical interests). Actually, new attempts to find sources of "peek oil" are ferformed worlwide. The future appears to be still far, my friends. But our hope may not be stopped by the actual events.

Friends, I agree with many of your answers.  When oil was discovered in large quantity in my country some years back, the 'calculation' was that it would last for 20 years or so.  It is now past that period, but there's seems to be a lot more oil.  I really don't understand, but I'm not complaining.  For my country and other tropical countries, SOLAR energy is the best replacement for fossil fuel; and to some extent wind and hydro.  I wish  solar energy technology can be made more economical.  And, I appeal that we stay away from nuclear energy.

'As custodian of Malaysia’s oil and gas resources, PETRONAS was entrusted with the responsibility to develop and add value to the nation’s hydrocarbon resources.'  See the link, thanks.

http://www.petronas.com.my/our-business/exploration-production/Pages/default.aspx

Friends, here is Prof Ljubomir's related question that has some great answers.  Allow me to bring it in, thanks.

https://www.researchgate.net/post/What_are_your_thoughts_on_renewable_ocean_energy_such_as_wave_wind_and_tidal_energy

It is scares that we live in troubled times. A mounting economic storm born of a convergence of peak oil, climate change, and an imbalanced U.S. economy dependent on debts it can never repay is poised to bring a dramatic restructuring of every aspect of modern life, including in United States. The particular motivating focus may be global climate change, racism, peace, democracy, spiritual renewal, peak oil, economic justice, or any number of similar topics. Each, however, deals with a need for deep changes in our relationship to one another and Earth.

http://ourworldinbalance.blogspot.in/2007/10/story-of-david-korten.html

Dear Darko, always posting complex questions!

As a non specialist I'll attempt some answer. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the only source of external energy is the Sun. Fossils fuels, renewable fuels and alternative fuels, depend directly or indirectly from it.

When I was in High School (a long time ago) there were forecasts about oil reserves that would be depleted by 1984. Some scientist predicted  the fall of the USSR because of this. In the end, the "wall" was torn down by the people and we still have oil , gas and now big shale oil & gas reserves.

Just to clarify, I'm not advocating for the use of "fossil fuels", only describing the actual situation.

I'm not an expert, but if you subsidize the oil & gas industry, you'll get more production and hence more consumption, and a bigger environmental impact (pollution, greenhouse gases, weakening of the Ozone layer, etc.). Most of you as experts on this field know that there are other sources of energy.

I very much liked the concept used by Marwan M. Obeidat in a previous post: "Smart Energy". I use a lot the term "smart" because it's an instrumental concept: smart agriculture, smart regulation, smart taxation.

In my understanding the term "smart" implies a scientific and common sense analysis of the different situations. How can we apply it to the matter of Fossil Fuels? We need to run specific analysis for countries, regions or continents. For example, in Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay, biomass as a renewable fuel may be a cost effective alternative. In other cases, e.g. Afghanistan, Australia or Chile, solar energy may be the answer. Hydroelectric power, eolic power and tide power are also cost effective alternatives, although in some cases the environmental impact is important.

One thing is very clear, if we think that fossil fuels are ecologically damaging, we need to reduce their use globally. One way is to stop subsidies and to increase their prices, as to reduce their consumption. A global tax on fossil fuel, levied by countries would be a possibility to reduce their use and to finance research on other possible sources.

Oil companies are very powerful and have a tremendous lobbying capacity. This is not necessarily bad, because governments have the ultimate power to enact legislation and norms to regulate this industry. The environment is a "common property" good, with unspecific property rights, so any possible solution relies on "cooperation and collaboration" among governments.

An "ad hoc" international organization, non legally binding and voluntary could be formed to address this issue of future energy sources, with the participation of most of the countries. Decisions should be made by consensus and with the due discussion, based on science and reasonability/reasonableness.

Answering your core question: I'm not able to state which is the source of energy to replace fossil fuels, what I'm sure is that there are different alternatives, regarding  regions, geography, nations and cultures. Solar, Eolic, Biofuels and hydroelectric power appear to be the most probable.

Regards to all!

@Umachandran and friends, just a short answer to Umachandran's post.  We are truly living in difficult times.  A lateral thought, related to this thread: when oil prices increase, we have problems.  When oil prices decrease, we also have problems.  (Now I learn to live and be happy despite problems.)

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2014/06/09/9-reasons-why-oil-prices-may-be-headed-for-a-bust/

Fossil fuels dominate the energy system ( most energy technologies need fossil fuels). At the moment,fossil fuels supply 70-75% of the world's primary energy demand....  The important fossil fuel for the future is coal (represents more than 50% of the combined reserves and resources).

Many people expect that solar and solar technology will play a dominant role in a world and renewable energy sources will cover up to 45-50% of primary energy in the 2100....???

Resource exhaustion is more complicated, since there are literally various resources,  however the two cases namely oil and food are constrained resources which are frequently threatening the human beings.

Dear @Darko and friends, sorry for late response. Here are some ideas, good readings!

 What is the biggest energy source of the future?- 1st link.

Second link  contains many articles about the future of energy technologies!

http://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/energy/biggest-energy-source-future.htm

http://www.alternative-energy-news.info/technology/future-energy/

Furthermore, Future of energy regarding Australia, very serious country in terms of energy behaviour and predictions, gives very interesting trends! "The Future Grid Forum has developed four key scenarios that have far-reaching implications for the current and future electricity supply chain and would alter the electricity system in Australia. How much and in what ways could consumers choose to manage their electricity use? What are the implications for electricity bills and the structure of the electricity sector?

How all of this might play out in the decades to 2050; and how we best manage and benefit

from the scenarios is a crucial conversation"!

http://www.originenergy.com.au/4234/Future-of-energy

What next ?

Nuclear fusion could also replace oil directly in a great many uses, like powering large ships. Its abundant, cheap electricity from a compact source could also eventually drive oil out of most other transportation uses, including automobiles and aircraft

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/fusion-power-goodbye-fossil-fuels.aspx?PageID=238&NID=73489&NewsCatID=418

@Umachandran, a good link.  Thanks.  Related to Darko's question and our concern for our earth,  'Nuclear fusion is clean energy – no radioactive waste, no risk of meltdown, and of course no carbon dioxide emissions – so if it is competitive in cost, it could easily sweep the field.

Fusion power would not replace the “renewables,” whose cost would probably fall fast enough to stay competitive. But it would rapidly replace the fossil fuels, mainly coal and gas, that are used to generate “base load” power – power that is always available even if the sun is down and the wind drops – especially because the compact reactors would easily plug into the existing gas turbine power infrastructure.'

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/fusion-power-goodbye-fossil-fuels.aspx?PageID=238&NID=73489&NewsCatID=418

What next ?

Energy of biomass and Sun (energy sources) not been exploated enough, because today's technologies (which directly/indirectly) use the energy of Sun and biomass, are not sufficient for commercial use due to energy inefficiency and lack of economic cost benefits. In my opinion, renewable and sustainable energy with minimum impact on the environment should be the priorities of today's energy strategy. Anyway, without sustainable development of energy industry, there is no economic development and real economic growth.

What next ?

Some analysts predict that gas, its supply and transport routes in the near future (period between 2030 to 2050) has potential of becoming major factor of energy policy /strategy.

Dear @Ivica, gas transport routes will be dictated not only by market policies, but primarily with political influences (South Stream, West Stream...)! Do You agree? Russia is becoming an key role player in this field.

Dear @Ljubomir,

You gave an excellent remark - I agree with you .

I think that natural renewable energy is not given a priority in research and innovation, which, I think, is an implication of energy company loopy.

Breakthrough Institute report,

Coal Killer: How Natural Gas Fuels the Clean Energy Revolution,

http://thebreakthrough.org/index.php/programs/energy-and-climate/coal-killer

http://thebreakthrough.org/images/main_image/Breakthrough_Institute_Coal_Killer.pdf

Renewable energycomes from resources which are naturally replenished on a human timescale such as sunlight, wind, rain, tides, waves, and geothermal heat.

Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of crude oil extraction is reached, after which the rate of extraction is expected to begin to decline… forever. It simply does not matter why peak crude oil extraction is reached, the peak is the peak regardless of the cause.

peakoilbarrel.com/what-is-peak-oil/

Alternatives in a Post Carbon World, much of the problem can be rectified by increased use of renewable sources.

In order to offset the crisis we must explore what alternatives are available, their current and potential uses and any problems which may arise from their usage.

http://www.mathaba.net/news/?x=552208

Oil prices fall on global glut fears

http://www.gulf-times.com/eco.-bus.%20news/256/details/454043/oil-prices-fall-on-global-glut-fears

Oil still has the power to humble leaders who fail to hedge their bets

The price of oil can still upset the scheme of the great and powerful

....Oil and gas matter. They provide about 50pc of the world’s total energy needs (coal provides about another 30pc). The ten largest oil and gas companies, including Sinopec, Royal Dutch Shell, Exxon Mobil and BP have combined sales of $2.6 trillion.

This is nothing new. In his classic history of the oil industry – The Prize – Daniel Yergin described the role of oil in deciding the Second World War. Better 100-octane aviation fuel gave the Spitfires an edge in the Battle of Britain; victory in the Battle of the Atlantic kept the oil flowing and Britain fighting. The destruction of synthetic fuel plants doomed the German war effort to slow defeat and shortages stalled the Afrika Korp......

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/leisure/11813697/Oil-still-has-the-power-to-humble-leaders-who-fail-to-hedge-their-bets.html

By using oil conservatively, we can increase the time span of teaching to the ‘peek oil’.

Why Peak-Oil Predictions Haven’t Come True

“Technology moves so quickly today that any looming resource constraint will be nothing more than a blip,” says petroleum economist Phil Verleger.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/why-peak-oil-predictions-haven-t-come-true-1411937788

WSJ Gets it Wrong on “Why Peak Oil Predictions Haven’t Come True”!

Dear @Darko, who is right?

http://ourfiniteworld.com/2014/10/06/wsj-gets-it-wrong-on-why-peak-oil-predictions-havent-come-true/

 The Peak Oil Crisis: Cold Fusion Gets a U.S. Patent

Sometimes our government moves very slowly. In the case of granting a patent to cold fusion technology, which just might replace fossil fuels, it took 26 years. The odyssey that started with a press conference at the University of Utah back in 1989 and has bumped along below the world’s radar screen ever since, seems to be coming to an end. The cold fusion phenomenon had a brief flurry of notoriety until it was “debunked” by many physicists, a couple of universities, and the U.S. Department of Energy panel. The science fell into disrepute, its discovers were disgraced and went into exile.

Fortunately for mankind, there were a handful of experimenters who were able to reproduce the original experiments which produced anomalous heat, thereby keeping the spark of cold fusion alive, but mostly in obscure laboratories out of the purview of the mainstream press. A decade or so ago some Italian physicists made a major breakthrough which led to devices producing commercial, not just test tube, amounts of heat. This effort culminated in a number of semi-public demonstrations of the technology, which were largely ignored or denounced as conventional wisdom held that “cold fusion” was impossible.

Circa two years ago the Italian cold fusion effort, led by entrepreneur Andrea Rossi, was moved to North Carolina, linked up with a venture capital firm, and well-financed developmental work began on building commercially viable cold fusion reactors. Last February the first prototype, a one-megawatt reactor system producing steam 24 hours a day, was installed for a one-year test in an undisclosed factory somewhere in the US. This device has now been successfully operating for over six months. If all goes well for the remainder of the trial period, a report is scheduled to be issued and heat producing devices will go on sale to the public

http://fcnp.com/2015/08/27/the-peak-oil-crisis-cold-fusion-gets-a-u-s-patent/

Hubbert's Peak Refuted: Peak Oil Theory Still Wrong

https://reason.com/blog/2015/06/10/hubberts-peak-refuted-peak-oil-theory-wr

2015 Could Be The Year Of Peak Oil (By Ron Patterson)

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/2015-Could-Be-The-Year-Of-Peak-Oil.html

Peak Oil: Myth Or Coming Reality?

It is interesting to note that almost 50 percent of crude oil is used for producing gasoline which is mostly used in the automobile industry. So what happens when people stop driving cars that run on gasoline?

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Peak-Oil-Myth-Or-Coming-Reality.html

Shell’s Arctic voyage marks beginning of peak oil era

"Anglo-Dutch company's search for resources in the Arctic is a sign that the world is running out of options for new oil reserves .."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/11611387/Shells-Arctic-voyage-marks-beginning-of-peak-oil-era.html

Remember “peak oil”? ... In what could be the largest natural gas discovery in history, Italian energy company Eni says it has unearthed a "supergiant" gas field ...

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2015/08/new_supergiant_natural_gas_discovery_may_be_the_largest_ever.html

The looming crisis we now face is often referred to as “Peak Oil” — a status where global oil production will reach a plateau, then begin its irreversible decline.   Oil fields follow a production curve where output increases at first, then reaches a plateau or “peak,” after which a steep decline occurs. Because existing oil fields decline, oil companies must continually develop major new finds just to maintain existing production. If these new projects do not exceed the decline of existing fields, it becomes impossible to maintain oil production, let alone grow oil output to fuel economic growth

http://grist.org/article/2010-05-19-peak-oil-production-coming-much-sooner-than-expected/

"Oil depletion and climate change will create an entirely new context in which political struggles will be played out. Within that context, it is not just freedom, democracy, and equality that are at stake, but the survival of billions of humans and of whole ecosystems."

— Richard Heinberg, Powerdown

"The three pillars of development (economic, social and environmental) must be strengthened together. But it is evident that two of the pillars - economic and social - are subsidiary to, and underpinned by, the third: a vibrant global ecology. Neither dollars nor our species will out-survive our planet. The earth can survive happily without people or profit."

Dave Hampton (letter to the Financial Times, November 2004)

The Origins of Peak Oil Awareness

The scientific study of peak oil began in the 1950′s, when Shell geophysicist M. King Hubbert reported on the evolution of production rates in oil and gas fields. In a 1956 paper Hubbert suggested that oil production in a particular region would approximate a bell curve, increasing exponentially during the early stages of production before eventually slowing, reaching a peak when approximately half of a field had been extracted, and then going into terminal production decline.

Hubbert applied his methodology to oil production for the Lower 48 US states and offshore areas. He estimated that the ultimate potential reserve of the Lower 48 US states and offshore areas was 150 billion barrels of oil. Based on that reserve estimate, the 6.6 million barrels per day (bpd) extraction rate in 1955, and the 52.5 billion barrels of oil that had been previously produced in the US, Hubbert’s base case estimate was that oil production in the US would reach maximum production in 1965. He also estimated that global oil production would peak around the year 2000 at a maximum production rate of 34 million bpd.

http://www.energytrendsinsider.com/2015/09/17/peak-oil-is-a-function-of-oil-price/

A Brief History of Peak Oil (James R. Maughan)

http://www.ideaslaboratory.com/post/110279383303/a-brief-history-of-peak-oil

The energy produced from wind covers about 3% of the world's electricity needs. For example, Denmark and Spain in wind power produces more than 20% of electricity consumed, while Germany produces about 10%.

Yes, Dear Darko,

India is not exploiting this source. It is a good field.

Stats on wind energy as a substitute!

As of the end of 2014, worldwide, total cumulative installed capacity from wind power amounts to 369,553 MW and increased by 16% compared to the previous year (318,106 MW).

In 2014, world leader China installed almost half of the world's added wind power capacity.[2] Global wind power installations increased by 35,467 megawatts (MW) and 51,447 MW in 2013 and 2014, respectively.

During 2010 and 2011 more than half of all new wind power was added outside of the traditional markets of Europe and North America, mainly driven by the continuing boom in China which accounted for nearly half of all of the installations at 18,000 MW in 2011. At the end of 2014, China had 114,763 MW of wind power installed.

Several countries have achieved relatively high levels of wind power penetration, such as 39% of stationary electricity production in Denmark, 18% in Portugal,16% in Spain, 14% in Ireland and 9% in Germany in 2010.

As of 2011, 83 countries around the world are using wind power on a commercial basis.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power

Two important actions are required:

First ---- developing habit of saving energy

Second ---- develop alternate sources of energy

You're quite right, dear @Subhash

World energy use to grow one-third over 25 years, renewables making inroads: IEA

http://www.solardaily.com/reports/World_energy_use_to_grow_one-third_over_25_years_renewables_making_inroads_IEA_999.html

"Global energy use is set to grow by one-third over the next 25 years, driven mostly by emerging economies, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday.Energy consumption in the most developed nations is expected to decline over the same period, it said in its annual World Energy Outlook.The main drivers for increased overall energy consumption will be India, China, Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia, the report said.But energy use is projected to drop by 15 percent by 2040 in the European Union, 12 percent in Japan and 3 percent in the US on the back of increased energy efficiency, energy savings and demographic trends..."

Energy transition is in progress - 2014 is almost half of the  newly installed capacity was just in renewable energy sources, and after coal, green energy is the second largest producer of electricity in the world.

G20 support to fossil fuel production: Who are the leaders and the laggards?

http://priceofoil.org/2015/11/11/g20-support-to-fossil-fuel-production-who-are-the-leaders-and-the-laggards/

"Oil Change International and Overseas Development Institute released a new report today, ‘Empty Promises: G20 subsidies to oil, gas and coal production,’ documenting government support from G20 countries to the fossil fuel industry.When it comes to phasing out subsidies to the production of polluting oil, gas and coal – something G20 leaders have committed to every year since 2009 – we’re seeing little progress.In fact, as fossil fuel prices have fallen, some countries have even increased subsidies in response. Although there has been some progress in reforming consumer subsidies, when it comes to production, progress is much more limited.So what are the most encouraging stories of reform to fossil fuel production subsidies – and the most frustrating? Which countries are showing leadership, and which are lagging behind... ?"

G20 Spending on Fossil Fuels Dwarfs Renewables! 

"The G20 countries spend almost four times as much to prop up fossil fuel production as they do to subsidize renewable energy, calling into question their commitment to halting climate change..."

Why Fossil Fuel Stocks Are Doomed?

"Numerous fossil fuel divestment campaigners have pointed to the stock markets lately to tell trustees that they are losing significant funds by not divesting. It’s true, fossil fuel stocks have lost 30 cents on the dollar in the last 21 months alone. That translates to big money when looking at large institutional investor portfolios like pension funds and school endowments..."

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/g20-spending-on-fossil-fuels-dwarfs-renewables-19676

http://ecowatch.com/2015/11/16/fossil-fuel-stocks-doomed/

With the way we’re depleting the Earth’s natural resources, there have been many who claim that renewable energy is the future. After all, what better source of energy to harness than the sun, which is freely available for about 12 hours every day or more in some countries? Solar energy has become one of the most utilized renewable energy sources over the years and innovators are finding more and better ways to harness solar energy. There are solar panel installation projects on rooftops, vehicles, clothing and mobile phones, among others.

Here are some of the innovations that are about to change the world of renewable energy as we know it:

• Mirrored solar dishes
• Telsa Grid Batteries
• Portable solar
• Solar Desalination
• Solar Transport

http://tech.co/five-solar-energy-technologies-changing-world-2015-11

IEA Says Natural Gas to Play Key Role in Climate Talks

http://www.bna.com/iea-says-natural-n57982063725/

"... Natural gas, the “least carbon-intensive fossil fuel,” could play a key role in reaching global climate goals, an issue at the center of upcoming talks in Paris, said the head of the International Energy Agency.."

Very interesting paper !

Gas Best Bridging Fuel for Carbon, CEO Says

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/gas-best-bridging-fuel-for-carbon-torstad-says-27149

"... Speaking at the International Gas Union (IGU) Forum in Høvik, Norway, Elisabeth Tørstad said that gas should play an important role in developing the world's energy mix in the coming decades. "As the world struggles to meet the high energy demand while still developing scalable renewables and a low-carbon infrastructure, gas offers the greatest benefits for the foreseeable future," she told attendees at the conference. "When planning for the next 30 years, gas should play an important role."

Germany and Poland have a dirty big secret – an addiction to brown coal

http://www.euronews.com/2015/12/01/germany-and-poland-have-a-dirty-big-secret-an-addiction-to-brown-coal/

http://www.global.ucsb.edu/climateproject/publications/pdf/Morrigan_2010_Energy_CC4.pdf

http://www.waitakere.govt.nz/abtcit/ec/ecoinit/pdf/climate-change.pdf

Article Energy return on investment, peak oil, and the end of economic growth