It is not a compulsary conclusion that the percerntage of faked scientific texts increases always; there could be also occur a ceiling effect, but we don't know the future. It is clear that online publishing encourages fake and fraud. But no scientist with morality will do this.
By way of example, I attach this scientific article which deals with "science scandals in 2012". Many articles have appeared in which scientific misconduct was exposed on global scale but little has been done to stop this plague as if there is something "fishy".
Scientific misconduct may occur in the teaching arena but the chances for continuity of "negativism" are very low and proper handling of a case can be done rapidly. This misconduct in research activities has been going on for years but the problem was not tackled in an appropriate manner.
Falsehood in research has caused enormous harm to humanity. I do not think that the top bosses in a given academic institution are "truly" unaware of the fraud that is practiced in their backyard "the institute". In a good number of 3rd world universities, the deceit game involves many easy-to-discover practices such as "shopping" for research articles in foreign countries at various rates of payment, changing the vocabulary of published research papers "smartly" & publishing them under new titles, including names of co-authors of papers who did nothing to the research efforts, and many other types of dishonesty.
If I were in a position of responsibility, I shall follow up this matter very closely by looking into the files of those who acquired high titles due to the so-called "list of research publications". Interrogation "may" reveal that they have been cheating the system for 10 or 20 or 30 years. It is true that they have been living "a very big lie" but they have to be severely punished by exposure & dismissal.
https://www.the-scientist.com/?articles.view/articleNo/33695/title/Top-Science-Scandals-of-2012/
It is not a compulsary conclusion that the percerntage of faked scientific texts increases always; there could be also occur a ceiling effect, but we don't know the future. It is clear that online publishing encourages fake and fraud. But no scientist with morality will do this.
Note: Retraction may stand for dropping "research publications" after finding out flawed or fake data & plagiarism.
Retraction Watch has recorded more than 1,000 retractions from 2017 alone. That was a rise from the 650 total retractions counted by MEDLINE in 2016. Please see the attached article:
https://www.the-scientist.com/?articles.view/articleNo/51195/title/Top-10-Retractions-of-2017/
I do not think that scientific misconduct in research will drop or vanish unless heavy punishments are done to the perpetrators & the news of penalties reach academic staffs worldwide.
Respected Dr. Derek Pyne , Please allow me to quote from your article : "Some universities have policies against them." and "... in reality allow authors to buy publication and thereby inflate their publication records. Authors can then use their publication records to apply for research awards, promotions and other benefits.".
Commenting on the first quote: This is a true statement but many short-sighted administrations will opt for what they think of as fast gains by selling a false image of a highly productive research center but these lies cannot continue forever. When the truth is revealed, the bosses will be proven as the worst enemies of their universities "which will pay the cost".
My comment on the second quote: Not only journals do that but there are markets & rings who are engaged in "research fraud". Some scholar will produce a research paper in a "poor" country & will offer it for sale with variety of prices (e.g. as single author, corresponding author, co-author). When an academic buys a paper as a single author, he can then contact 3 or 4 others to sell them co-authorship status at so & so U.S. dollars. This is a thriving business which ends up with immoral deceitful crooks attaining high titles undeservedly. Obviously, this is high crime treachery in which many sides are betrayed (the university, the nation, and humanity...).
A wise scholar will prefer to stay, with integrity, in a low title throughout the service time (if real research resources are not available) & not to deviate into the ugly crime of dishonesty in which self-cheating overrides.
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