I want to estimate number of malaria cases averted due to an intervention targeted in reducing malaria incidence. So, how I can estimate it using quarterly incidence survey?
Any suggestion please?
You can calculate Prevented fraction for the population (PFP) for your outcome (no.of malaria cases averted)
PFP=(incidence rate in the unexposed−incidence rate in the population)/incidence rate in the unexposed
where
The incidence rate in the unexposed refers to no. of malaria cases among people who didn't receive intervention for reducing malaria.
The incidence rate in the population refers to the total no. of malaria cases in the population.
PFP refers to the reduction in the disease burden due to existing exposure levels of intervention, compared with if the whole population was unexposed.
For example, suppose PFP is estimated to be 25%. In that case, it means that, due to existing malaria control activities, malaria incidence is 25% lower than it would have been if the whole population was at risk (no intervention).
You need to find the risk assuming business as usual and risk in the unexposed population. after that use the formaular
= (Risk in Unexposed - Risk in General population)/Risk in Unexposed population
The unexposed population is the population where the intervention was deployed.
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