I need an explanation on the consequence of having quarantine or lockdown.
Thanks much.
Please take a look at this useful link.
https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S1473-3099%2820%2930152-3
Having a quarantine or lockdown would really prevent the spreading of covid 19?? Here, in Greece, we are in lockdown from March 23 6 a.m. (local time) due to new coronavirus. Hoping for the better here and everywhere in the world.
Dear Dr.Craig Refugio
Yes, lock down is only the option to prevent the spreading of Covid 19 .Even we do n't cure it. At least we try to minimize 'spreading of Covid 19'
Only way to stop spreading virus accidentally by contact with others, touching door handles, touching money, etc That is how virus spreads. Eventually virus will reach people with poor health, smokers, etc and they will suffer and maybe die too.
Yes. As there is no cure for this virus is developed till now. But, for the developing and underdeveloped countries lockdown may destroy the day labourer. Many of them may not die of Covid-19 but they may die due to hunger if sufficient help is not provided. Govt. of all countries should take proper care of their citizen.
So, lockdown is the best possible solution if proper support is given to the people.
You may find the following link helpful regarding Corona virus.
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public
The Question is a crucial one !
Regarding Virological mutation it can be totally dependent on developement of anti-viral drug Flaviravir ( Newer pipeline drug ) .
https://www.researchgate.net/post/Whether_Bio-Technological_Research_is_essential_to_develope_our_nation_including_the_threats_of_Corona_Virus-How
The virus is better avoided than treated. Self quarantine wouldbe the best. I have picked a lesson from what happened in Italy. This virus is really more dangerous than you have ever imagined, given the death toll as of now
Dear Craig Refugio , following are the research articles related to the spread of disease due to transport. Additionally, you must have heard of disease transmission through Silk Road from China in the past. So yes lock down helps in prevention of spread.
Title: Pneumonia of unknown aetiology in Wuhan, China: potential for international spread via commercial air travel
Link: https://academic.oup.com/jtm/article/27/2/taaa008/5704418
Title: The positive impact of lockdown in Wuhan on containing the COVID-19 outbreak in China
Link: https://read.qxmd.com/read/32181488/the-positive-impact-of-lockdown-in-wuhan-on-containing-the-covid-19-outbreak-in-china
Title: Correlation between travellers departing from Wuhan before the Spring Festival and subsequent spread of COVID-19 to all provinces in China
Link: https://read.qxmd.com/read/32181483/correlation-between-travellers-departing-from-wuhan-before-the-spring-festival-and-subsequent-spread-of-covid-19-to-all-provinces-in-china
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/15/21179296/coronavirus-covid-19-social-distancing-bored-pandemic-quarantine-ethics
Dear Dr.Craig,
Indian Government has locked down all the cities ,which have positive cases. Further, patients are quarantined in isolation center.The idea is to just to check the spread of infection in the community. Quarantine is very essential in the control of all communicable diseases, including COVID-19.
With kind regards,
Prof.Dr.Mahendra Pal
Founder Director of Narayan Consultancy on Veterinary Public Health
It will not prevent the spread of Covid-19 100% but still it is the only way to limit its spread. There will be great consequences of lockdown but not greater than the disease would have caused in the case of spreading.
Here in China, the lockdown of wuhan and the people’s cooperation by staying home were the key in covid 19 fighting.
The massive transmission nature of this virus comparing with previous simillar corona viruses makes the lockdown and quarantine the most valuable method to prevent its spreading.
Many cities in China , even not so far from wuhan, have less than 100 infected cases because of this strategy.
Lau H, Khosrawipour V, Kocbach P, Mikolajczyk A, Schubert J, Bania J,
Khosrawipour T. The positive impact of lockdown in Wuhan on containing the
COVID-19 outbreak in China. J Travel Med. 2020 Mar 17:taaa037. doi:
10.1093/jtm/taaa037.
Of course, it does. Covid 19 is most contagious virus. As we know there is no vaccine or drug of it till now. So one and only preventive measure can protect all to stop spreading one to another person.
I am not an expert for epidemiology, but somehow can understand that the lockdown could be the best option for our countries, and especially for these which are the highest densely populated countries in the world. Stay at home!
Lockdown is the best option to contain the virus. It helps the contact tracing process.
Lock down and quarantine are two easy options at the moment that may help in mitigating the hazard.
Well i guess. If people will stay at their home than there will be less chances to spreading of infection. Because there will be less chances of coming in contact with each other and social distancing will also maintained. Which means it will not cure covid19 but yes atleast it will its spreading will stop.
Definitely will contribute to slowing the spread, but we will need a vaccine.
One of the most important studies (and lessons) on coronavirus testing to date:
https://futurism.com/neoscope/half-coronavirus-carriers-no-symptoms
I am very hopeful that lock down will certainly help to prevent the spread of Coronavirus (Covid-19).
TOTAL LOCK DOWN and QUARANTINE are the only solutions, and do that for at least two months, like China. We in California have been on "Lock down Lite" since March 16, but that means you can still travel to other places to infect other areas, you can still go out and shop without wearing a mandatory mask and gloves, and it also means that once you get the virus under control in your province, other infected people are allowed in, to reinfect your recovered population?
The USA has known for two years, what the implications of the virus is going to be if it went out of control--In 2018, the John Hopkins Center for Health Security ran a simulation called "Parainfluenza Clade X" to determine what the potential would be of a virus pandemic, and they concluded: "...twenty months 150 million people worldwide--two percent of the global population--have died."
"...The global economy has collapsed under the strain, with the Dow Jones average down 90 percent. U.S. GDP down 50 percent, and unemployment at 20 percent. Washington is barely functioning--the president and vice president are both ill, one one-third of Congress is dead or incapacitated."
People involved in that simulation were Tom Daschle (former leader of US Senate), Dr. Julie Gerberding (former head CDC), Jim Talen (former Missouri senator)--Why are all of these people keeping quiet right now, and not telling us what they saw in the global virus pandemic simulation only two years ago, and helping lead us out of this mess, with some new simulations???!!!
This simulation information and attendee list is from pages 201-203 of the Bryan Walsh book, "END, A Brief Guide to the End of the World: Asteroids, Supervolcanoes, Rogue Robots, and more", published in 2019.
Details about the John Hopkins "CLADE X" exercise can be read at
http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/events/2018_clade_x_exercise/index.html
All things go by making a vaccine or modifying a vaccine against the virus. The other thing, the psychological aspect, increases immunity to the virus. As well as the use of antibodies from people who chavo. The good thing is to use immune fruits and vegetables with almonds and nuts
Yes, i think that help to reduces the spread and transmission of this virus as well and all take care from Corona virus by boosting your immunity.
My Excel charts are not looking good, with all hell breaking loose in the next 30 days, just because the Lockdown was NOT put in place immediately when the first cases appeared in each country. And then, when the spread started, did not go from Lockdown to complete quarantine like China did for 2 months in Wuhan.
Everyone MUST immediately go into quarantine in each country, in order not to suffer to much--the curves are not changing fast enough.
Lockdown/quarantine is the best way to flatten the curve of the spread of covid-19. And of course, it should be done with other methods like washing hands, etc. This is shown here https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-25/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-stay-home-chart/12084144?fbclid=IwAR3KOH5CYgW8mTEihFdhPsHX3KAlOQlosE18QL65xT_Abt6kG8Eh6qJegqQ
Many nations including India has taken the measure to lock down with the objective to prevent the spread of Coronavirus. Lock down/quarantine is imperative in the prevention and control of contagious diseases.
Comparing a LOCKDOWN to a QUARANTINE with two cities about the same sizes, the virus entering Hong Kong on January 22nd and New York on March 1
Hong Kong, 7.3 million and quarantine, only 714 cases to March 31 and 4 deaths.
New York City, 8.6 million and Lockdown, 75,795 cases and 1,550 deaths.
I do not think anyone would need to run statistical analysis, to make a decision which way to go?
About the virus-curve--California is double its cases every three days, but in order for the curve to bend, the number of days between doubling must be 30 more more, which means we are going to need a total China-style quarantine lockdown. Everyone for their own country, should track the number of days to for the number of cases to double, and when you get 30 or more, that is very good! If fewer than 30 days, need to do more
GOOD NEWS from California and the USA on April 2! The days to doubling of total cases is lengthening. In California our total case numbers were doubling like clockwork, every 3-4 days between March 8 and March 29th.
We put on "Lockdown Lite" on the 16th. Then from March 30 to today, the numbers are now doubling every 12 days. Once every country ON THE PLANET goes on a severe-enough lockdown for at least a month, then the total number of cases and days to double, start stretching out after 2 weeks of Lockdown.
Yesterday, President Trump was still refusing to do any lockdowns in any of the Republican states that support him, which means that a lot of his supporters will be too sick or dead, to be able to vote in November?
Look at this article - https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&fbclid=IwAR0k1PuVvbhIx9J0dzpOhIPw8DLYrTD577yqdFyOPIvXFjYAVEAn6F3TPn8
If you track the total cases on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ you can see that unless every week we can lower the doubling rates of the total cases--if you open an Excel spread sheet and extrapolate the current doubling rate out--by the first of June we may have 500 million sick people worldwide.
And the easiest method to stop this, is quarantine, and EVERYONE wear cloth face masks when they go out, plus zero movement between States, Countries or provinces? No cars, no buses, no planes, no motorcycles, no bicycles, no walking, no trains---nothing moving to spread the virus from one spot to another?
Deleted research item The research item mentioned here has been deleted
is where I have posted my own Excel spread sheet work
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/coronavirus-covid-19-quarantine-restrictions/
From the California perspective, total lockdown, and EVERYONE from infants to 110 year olds, MUST wear masks when going out of their homes. It does not need to be N95s, just a cloth surgical mask or a bandanna would help.
And the lockdown MUST be complete, and you will not see results for at least 3-4 weeks. PLUS all movements within the country, other than food and other supplies being delivered, MUST be stopped for at least one month.
And every person should be given a NETI POT with a couple of hundred saline packets. It is my theory that it takes the virus a little while to get established in the nasal cavity, maybe a day or two, so if you use the saline rinse at least once a day before bed, you might flush out those try to make a beachhead--much better to kick them out when they are in small numbers. Then, if you develop a runny nose, flush every hour until the dripping stops.
Much better to stop it before it starts, because once you have the fever and cough, it is too late! Then, you just need to go for the wild ride.
Before each country starts managing the spread, the doubling time for cases is every 3-5 days, so that means by the end of April a lot of sick, unless the doubling times are extended!
But I am mostly worried about the two "DENIER" Countries, the rest of the USA and Russia, plus Iran, India and Pakistan--all five heavily investing in their militaries and heavy metal solutions to conflicts for many decades, instead of making their people secure with housing, clean water, solar panels for electricity, free health care, free college educations, etc.
When you go out and you choose to wear a maskor not, AND, you choose to go home for 4 weeks or not, is a choice between slowing down and eventually stopping the spread of the virus--OR, you can remain vulnerable and potential prey for this new pathogen? Hopefully, we all make the correct choices?
PARTICLES and the virus--We are discovering here in California, that the virus can "hitch hike" on particles. When someone breathes, or coughs or sneezes, the rule is keep two meters apart. But that seems to only work in clean air, with no smog or smoke particles, or tobacco smoke, or salt spray particles if you are at the beach.
A smoker could be like a long distance virus spreader, the virus riding for hundreds of feet carried on that smoker, since tobacco smoke as it comes from a cigarette is an extremely concentrated aerosol with a relatively stable distribution of sizes ranging from 0.1 to 1.0 micron, peaked between 0.2 and 0.25 micron. So not only can you breath in the virus, but it could get deep into your lungs that way.
Maybe this is a good time for the human race to stop smoking tobacco?
The 1969 song - "Somethings in the Air" by Thunderclap Neuman, I think says it all: "Intro : Call out the instigators. Because there's something in the air. We've got to get together sooner or later...
Bridge : Lock up the streets and houses. Because there's something in the air..."
One way to lower the number of new cases rate, is for everyone to know the coronavirus lifespan on different surfaces--cloth two days, paper money four days, and outside of masks the longest, at 7 days. Paper money might be a major "vector" for transmitting the virus, so perhaps banks should start "laundering" their currency and coins? ? SEE https://www.businessinsider.com/how-long-can-coronavirus-live-on-surfaces-how-to-disinfect-2020-3
Coronavirus is very quickly stripping away... the facade that each country has erected, to pretend how much they really care about each individual's welfare, in terms of safe housing, a livable wage, clean water, free electricity via solar panels, free heath care, free higher education, equal rights for women, actions to reverse Global Warming, zero investment in militaries and warfare, no refugees, no "illegals" when everyone is a citizen ("Wherever you live, you are automatically a citizen") and the like?
Or, is the government really only interested in... maintaining the status quo for the wealthiest 2% and to maintain a plutocracy? The coronavirus is showing us where our government's hearts and minds really live, and where the adjustment must be made?-- So that in the near future, each country takes care of the welfare of ALL of its people living within its borders? .As spoken by the character Ruk in Star Trek episode "What are Little Girls Made of?:" that was first aired on Oct.20, 1966, "Survival! Existence! Must cancel out programming!"
Quarantine is the isolation of healthy man who has come in contact with an infectious disease for a period of time equal to the longest incubation period of the disease to prevent contact with those who are not exposed. It is done in all highly communicable diseases.I strongly recommend that quarantine is essential to prevent the spread and transmission of Coronavirus that has gripped the entire world.
That's the most effective way to contain the speedy spread, since there's no vaccine to slow or kill the virus at the moment. It is a difficult practice for us all, but it's a better option to save our world.
Maybe more caution using the toilet? See article
"Toilets May Pose Risk for Spreading COVID-19"
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/928234?
CRITICAL ITEM to finally stop new cases of the coronavirus--EVERYONE must wear masks when going out of their homes--either to take a walk, or to go for supplies, or go to work as an "essential worker" In the San Jose area with about 2 million people, after a month of Lockdown, we still have daily new 40-50 cases, which could keep the pandemic smoldering here forever, requiring a year or two of lockdown to finally put it out. Even more important than the tests, are at least seven masks for each person, so they can rotate those masks on a daily basis, and WEAR them when outside! Otherwise, all of the weeks or months or years lockdown goes to waste.
THIS is the new health order about face covering issued today, April 17, 2020, in my County in California---
======================================
Bay Area health officials are recommending residents cover their nose and mouth with cloth when leaving home for essential travel such as doctor appointments, grocery shopping or pharmacy visits.
The regional recommendation aligns with new guidance from the California Department of Public Health.
The face coverings do not have to be hospital grade but need to cover the nose and mouth. For example, bandanas, fabric masks and neck gaiters are acceptable. Fabric covers and bandanas can be washed and used again.
Health officials do not recommend that the public use medical masks (N-95 or surgical masks), which are in limited supply and must be preserved for our health care workers and first responders.
Up until now, local officials have not recommended the large-scale use of face coverings, but circumstances have changed.
“In addition to shelter-in-place and social distancing requirements, wearing a mask in public is an important tool to stop the community spread of this disease,” says Scott Morrow, MD, San Mateo County health officer. “People with no or mild symptoms may have coronavirus and not know it. Wearing face coverings helps protect others from exposure.”
Covering the nose and mouth with cloth also may be beneficial as a reminder to keep physical distancing. Health officials continue to stress that staying home, frequent hand washing and physical distancing are the best ways to prevent the spread of COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus.
Acceptable face coverings can be made of a variety of cloth materials, be factory-made or hand-sewn, or can be improvised using bandanas, scarves, t-shirts, sweatshirts or towels.
Face coverings should be washed frequently with detergent and hot water and dried on a hot cycle. Ideally, wash your face covering after each use, and have a dedicated laundry bag or bin.
Make sure the covering is comfortable – you don’t want to have to keep adjusting the mask, which means touching your face. Always wash your hands, or use hand sanitizer, before AND after touching your face or face coverings.
=========================
It is obvious now, that a lockdown plus masks are the keys for future survival? But...What... about the permanent changes to human societies the coronavirus will make?
Probably as massive as what happened to my Native American relatives 500 years ago...When the European people brought us Bubonic plague, chickenpox, cholera, the common cold, diphtheria, influenza, malaria, measles, scarlet fever, sexually transmitted diseases, smallpox, typhoid, typhus, tuberculosis, and whooping cough ?
And that all happened within a short amount of time, and some of us fortunately survived, that is why I am here to tell you this story today!
Much more important than WHEN or HOW the pandemic will end, will be WHO wins the current battle...between the scientists and medical practitioners who are working hard to get us all healthy, and the some of the politicians who look at us--just as numbers--and only interested in maintaining their money and power?
The exception is DR. OZ (a real doctor?) who is willing to sacrifice 2-3% of America's children, and allow them to die, to get the money in the USA flowing again? we need to be very careful to those who want to sacrifice millions of the rest of us, like we are old garbage? That is between 1.5 and 2.2 MILLION children--see the outrageous interview at https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/04/dr-oz-school-children-non-apology
Quarantine plays a vital role to prevent the spread of any infectious disease including COVID-19.
…
We seem to have three choices:
1.) DENIAL and SLOW to lockdown...like the USA, UK and Russia, are today April 19 at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries ...Numbers one, two and three with the most new cases in the last 24 hour, increasing at 23,000 in the USA, 6,000 Russia, and 5,800 for the UK!
2.) Lockdown LITE.. WITHOUT mediatory face masks for everyone, and still allowing travel between provinces or between cities or between States. Plus, plane, train, bus, auto travel--the virus slows down, but remains at a simmering level, and slowly spreading sparks to reignite the pandemic, like Los Angeles and New York City. No tracing of cases, not enough masks, not enough testing, anxious to reopen societies when pandemic still rages, to save their economies, not separating infected individuals from the rest of society, homeless people still roaming on the streets.
3.) CHINA SEVERE LOCKDOWN.. Mask for EVERYONE, STOP all travel, trace all cases, massive testing, isolate infected individuals from the rest of society, zero homeless people roaming on the street.
The UK and other European countries also implemented testing and contact tracing in the early weeks of their own epidemic. But as the numbers grew, testing and tracing was abandoned in favour of strict lockdown measures to keep people in their homes and prevent them mixing.
Hong Kong took the route that the World Health Organization recommends and embarked on a rigorous programme of testing everyone with symptoms. Those who tested positive were quarantined in hospital. Hong Kong has not had that sort of lockdown. Although people were not required to stay at home, they chose to change their behaviour.
By quickly implementing public health measures, Hong Kong has demonstrated that Covid-19 transmission can be effectively contained without resorting to the highly disruptive complete lockdown.
Bite Jamshidi--So how was your country, Iraq, able to keep the numbers low, while next to you in Iran, the situation is still out of control?
Something ECONOMICALLY--and completely unexpected happened in the USA today--The West Texas pumping oil wells cannot be shut down, that supply the pipelines, ran out of storage capacity. So, a week ago was trading at $40 barrel, then by Friday dropped to $18 a barrel. Then, today, April 20, the oil companies paid people, and started giving away 5 MILLION of barrels of oil PER DAY for free, and pay $37 a barrel to get rid of it! The computers that track commodity prices did not know how to record the give away, usually could not go below one cent per barrel, and into negative territory?
Following this discussion, we can see that most of the contributors agree that lockdown is an effective way to curb the outbreak. Oppositely, economists spread the fear of a recession, which is deemed much worse than the last financial crisis, as an impact of a lockdown. I believe the timing for a lockdown is extremely crucial. To prevent the spread of the Covid-19, a lockdown need to be implemented as soon as possible. It can last for a short period of a month or two, just like in Wuhan, without deteriorating the economy. A recession would require two things, i,e, falling aggregate demand and vanishing confidence on the economy. A short period of lockdown would hardly affect both demand and confidence. Wuhan is again a good example, where after the lockdown the economy recovers in no time.
A fear of recession, which is expanded by economists much faster than the spread of the virus, has delayed the implementation of lockdown in many countries. Some countries have witnessed their aggregate demand declined significantly and the people have entirely lost confidence in the economy during the period of uncertainty. Moreover, factors of production and economic infrastructure have been devastated as well. Eventually, with the outbreak just serves as a backdrop, the fear of a recession has become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
We need to think that we have been living like caterpillars, munching away at the planet for hundreds of years under certain economic, political and medical patterns?
And the Coronavirus is making all of us go into our pupae right now, so we can dissolve all of those structures, and then rebuild with only the essentials, with as little waste as possible, and with equality for all in terms of meeting everyone's basic needs, and emerge with as little impact on the planet's environments, as the beautiful butterflies we could be?
From https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/#total-cases --- some very good news today! The "Bell-shape curve" is starting to form!
Instead of waiting for a vaccine, maybe a more direct approach, like
From https://www.drugtargetreview.com/news/60108/researchers-reveal-how-remdesivir-prevents-covid-19-viral-replication
Researchers reveal how remdesivir prevents COVID-19 viral replication
According to a new study, the drug remdesivir is a very potent inhibitor for coronavirus polymerases – demonstrating its potential for combatting COVID-19.
Researchers have demonstrated how the drug remdesivir is successful at preventing viral replication of SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19.
Scientists at the University of Alberta, Canada, followed on from research published in February that showed how remdesivir works against the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) virus, a related coronavirus.
“We were optimistic that we would see the same results against the SARS-CoV-2 virus,” said Matthias Götte, chair of medical microbiology and immunology at Alberta. “We obtained almost identical results as we reported previously with MERS, so we see that remdesivir is a very potent inhibitor for coronavirus polymerases.”
The new study suggests that the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) is like the engine of the virus, responsible for synthesising the virus’ genome.
“If you target the polymerase, the virus cannot spread, so it’s a very logical target for treatment,” Götte said.
The lab’s work shows how remdesivir tricks the virus by mimicking its building blocks. When the coronavirus RdRp is duped, the inhibitor is incorporated many times and the virus can no longer replicate.
Götte said the evidence from his group, along with previously published studies in animal and cell culture models, means that remdesivir can be classified as a ‘direct-acting antiviral’ against SARS-CoV-2.
While Götte said the evidence justifies clinical trials, he cautioned that the results obtained in the lab cannot be used to predict how the drug will work with people.
“We’ve got to be patient and wait for the results of the randomised clinical trials,” said Götte. However, he is optimistic that the unprecedented amount of research going on worldwide and the high level of co-operation between researchers will lead to the discovery of one or more effective treatments for COVID-19.
The study was published in the Journal of Biological Chemistry.
Found a copy of an original 1918 flu pandemic chart at https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=228841 - So, to answer this question, the whole world may need to go through at least three things:
1.) Get on the other side of the bell-shaped curve for new cases, like China. 2.) On the other side of the bell shaped curve, zero new cases for at least six months, and for the next year, do not allow people from still infected countries to travel to your country, once you get to zero cases. 3.) Over the bell shaped curve, if you still have even a few new cases, like 1918, then expect at lease one to two more pandemic to break out about 4-6 months apart?
The only thing that will save us, is zero cases for at least six months, AFTER we get on the other side of each of our own bell-shaped curves, because a vaccine in 7.4 billion does will not be ready in time, to stop the second or third pandemics otherwise.
So to answer the question here, a lockdown will only really work, if each country can achieve ZERO new cases for at least six months. We should have learned from 1918 that a smoldering pandemic can be as bad as a raging pandemic? By allowing to smolder can cause us to be in lockdown for a couple of years or more?
Si el gobierno no llamò estadìgrafos, què lògica podemos esperar? El cierrre completo al comienzo està llamando al fracaso. El problema puede durar 2 años.
La metodologia actual es ir demorando el proceso . Urgente ! la vacuna.
Google translation of the above: If the government did not call statisticians, what logic can we expect? The complete closure at the beginning is calling for failure. The problem may last for 2 years. The current methodology is to delay the process. Urgent! the vaccine
I have been using Excel, to chart future trends, and here is today's forecast:
APRIL 26 - The current trends worldwide suggest that the dropping of new cases overall, will take at least another month...mostly because of the USA's weak response to date, causing about 1/3 of the worldwide cases so far. The projected total number of cases worldwide, today April 26 will be over 3,000,000.
Then, about once a week, total cases may increase by one million new cases.
May 2 should have four million.. then, May 7 maybe five million...then, May 12 perhaps six million worldwide..unless the USA and all of the denier countries --Brazil, Russian and the UK-- start having EVERY person wearing a mask when they go out, and separate the ill from the healthy, to stop the spreading?
And no country should get off lockdown, until new cases are at ZERO for at least a month? Then, travelers should not be allowed into a virus-free country, from any country where the virus has not eradicated? You need to put out all of the embers to stop a fire?
WORLDWIDE--Very hot summer?...Because the lack of airplanes flying, means that the high altitude cloud seeding the 37 million flights do every minute of every day, has been lost--so that means those contrail clouds will not be there to reflect the sun's heat back into space? See the article from 2010, https://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/Bright-Green/2010/0201/Airplane-contrails-and-their-effect-on-temperatures
I did a painting about this effect, above, at www.ecoseeds.com/art3.html with the title: "Title: "Mysterious signs in the skies above downtown Palo Alto, autumn 2016--the jet contrails are exhaust particles several miles high forming ice cirrus clouds, an interesting cloud-seeding planetary science-experiment, where in the United States alone there are 5,000 planes airborne at any given time, and daily 87,000 planes fly over the USA, and worldwide over 37 million flights per year." Acrylics on canvas, 8" x 8" Painting #51 in catalogue. Copyright image and text © 2016 by Craig Carlton Dremann, all right reserved.
UPDATED MAY 2, 2020 - Extrapolated numbers of total cases for next 2-3 weeks, with striking results anticipated for USA, Russia, and the World for new cases and deaths, on an Excel Spreadsheet.
--Worldwide on MAY 7 may produce 4 million total cases, mostly being contributed by the USA (36K/day), Russian (8K/day), Brazil (6.7K/day) and UK (6.2K/day), with additional contributions by Spain, Peru, India, Turkey, Italy, Canada, etc.
--USA by May 16, adding 500,000 new cases, for a total 1.5 million cases, is the projected curve.
--USA deaths curve is anticipating doubling to only by 124,000 by June 1, but that might be too optimistic? Because of the desire to stop the lock down in many states, including armed protesters invading the State legislature in Michigan, by mid-to-late May the curve may start an upward trend again?
--My Excel chart is open, so that anyone can download it, and will be able to update it periodically as I have. The key to how I am charting the future numbers, is based on the days for the numbers to double. I am saving this spreadsheet in a earlier Excel file format, of XLS, so no matter how old your program is, you can still open the spreadsheet and use it. My spreadsheet is also available under my "Projects" listing on my Researchgate page.
--Page 5 of the spreadsheet, is another look at the pandemic numbers--the relationship between the number of cases, and what each country spends annually on their military, to see if excessive spending on militaries, removes funds from countries when needed for pandemics, and cripples their ability to respond quickly, for example.
Updated my Excel charts showing the predicted Coronavirus trends, to the end of May, and it does not look good for some countries, or the world in general, based on number of days for the number of cases to double.
And when compared to the charts produced by health data.org, my charts are very different in that the health data.org charts try to predict the start of the downside of the bell shaped curve will start very soon with no evidence those curves have even reached it peak?
My charts do not indicate that will occur soon, for places like the USA or the world, because those curves haven not even started to bend very much yet, and are still shooting straight like a rocket?
For example, as of May 4, the White House is now forecasting that 134,000 people will die of Covid-19 in the United States, nearly double its previous prediction. The model, from the healthdata.org at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, had predicted 72,433 deaths as of Monday morning.
My Sheet 3 chart indicates 150,000 US deaths by June 1, but will keep going after that. And since a lot of states are relaxing lockdown, my charts will start increasing in three weeks about May 22.
Sometimes my trends lines hit the actual numbers ± 2-5%, but at least they are more realistic than imaginary numbers and curves, that have not yet shown themselves to exist.
Unless each country that still has the virus not peaking yet, goes on China-style lockdown--see videos documentaries on YouTube of the severe lockdown required to shut down the virus in only a few weeks--millions worldwide will suffer unnecessarily, and may take until the end of the year, to get it under control with the "Lockdown-Lite" methods.
The countries currently suffering the most are the "Virus-deniers" the USA, UK, Russian and Brazil, for example.
Also, there may be a connection between the number of cases and military spending--I am exploring in Chart 5 of my Excel charts, when a country spends a lot on military for imaginary future battles, or current battles somewhere on the planet? Does military budgets, suck up funds that could have been used for real medical emergencies like this, so people end up suffering more, when there are no funds to adequately fight this battle.
Each country sacrifice their citizens, instead of helping them to get healthy? Two Republican politicians in the USA -- in March Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick of Texas, and then last week, Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, suggested that citizens sacrifice their lives for the "economy" because they were going to die anyway?
So, instead of admitting that the China-method could work, could save lives, but are refusing to want to learn from an Asian country that their method is best, we are supposed to sacrifice ourselves for the American politician's negligence and incompetence?
The Worldometers.info charts... for the USA, World and other virus denier countries like UK and Russia--worldwide May 10-11 in only 24 hours, new cases world=46,000 USA=5,000 UK=3,800 Russia =11,600 ???
This test of the human species has just begun...and the test result will be, when each country is able to rearrange its priorities and budgets and cut out waste on standing militaries and wars, and invest in health, the environment, and mitigating global warming?
Without this test being conducted all at the same time...forcing us into life and death choices as a species, we might keep avoiding fixing those flaws in our societies, like we have been unable and unwilling to effectively act on global warming for decades now?
The vaccine or "cure" are imaginary mirages...because we do not have the money, time or resources to even do the Lockdown properly, to slow and stop the pandemic--Because many of our countries have invested for decades in standing armies and militaries and wars instead of health, education and fixing global warming for example.
We have become so used to instead gratification in modern times...and have become so impatient, like little bunnies wanting to jump out of our safe burrows too soon, and not waiting for the predators who are still killing us outside, to pass over?
So we need to see if we can stop fighting each other for a while... like the Great Ashoka did in India 2,300 years ago (304-232 BCE), and start fighting the true enemies of our species--the Global Warming, lack of clean drinking water, lack of adequate housing, lack of free health care, lack of equal rights for women, lack of sewer systems or composting toilets for all, and the lack of a free solar panel on every roof, as examples?
The virus is just taking advantage of the numerous weaknesses in our societies, that we never seem to resolve--and those weaknesses are what cause the pandemic in the first place!
Eliminating the virus...will not cure the weakness that exist, that will help another agent in the future to take advantage of our chronic weaknesses, and destroy our civilizations and maybe even finish us off as a species?
The illness of this pandemic..is just highlighting the chronic weaknesses of our societies.
AND we need to stop adding bats to the lunch menu...and stop killing the 2.7 million pangolins each year for their scales and meat?
HOUSEHOLD CORONAVIRUS HINTS--
There are three items...once the virus is on the surface inside your nose, or inside your mouth, and before it very firmly attached to you, might help get it out. Or these three items at least, might be useful just to keep you safer overall?
1.) Try gargle with a little bit of 60% (120 proof) GRAIN (drinking) alcohol for about 20 seconds, about a teaspoon or about 5 ml...then rinse. Any drinking alcohol of that strength is going to be a surprise, and you will see why one of its nicknames is "Fire-water".
This is a great item to have to clean surfaces...just need some paper towels and open the bottle and place the towel against the mouth and get a couple of cm diameter circle wet, then wipe down door handles, laptop keyboards, tv remotes and the like.
NEVER USE ANY OTHER KIND OF ALCOHOL for gargling... like isopropyl or denatured alcohol---you need the real strong drinking stuff. Vodkas are usually only 35-50%, In the USA, depending on the State, it is Everclear brand--that is 120 proof.
2.) Gargle with 1.5% hydrogen peroxide for 15 seconds, then rinse. That is the usual 3% peroxide from the pharmacy, cut in half, diluted 1:1 with water. Great for teeth and gum problems also, so could also be used while you floss.
3.) For nose and sinuses, saline rises daily...after going out of your home, AND at night before bed, using a NETI pot, with a 3:1 salt-baking soda mix and use IODINE FREE salt, and use boiled water that has had a rolling boil for three minutes, and then, has cooled to body temp. It is only 2 grams (about 1/4 teaspoon) of the salt-baking soda mix in 250 ml (one cup) of water.
A plan to ERADICATE the Coronavirus, and end the Pandemic— has been initiated by the actor SEAN PENN.
His interview aired on the May 22…on PBS “Firing Line” program with Margaret Hoover at https://www.pbs.org/wnet/firing-line/video/sean-penn-feetzm/
The principal method of attack…is “Virus testing twice a week” and Sean has set up five free testing sites in California with his CORE (Community Organized Response Plan) organization at https://www.coreresponse.org/covid19-- plus free testing sites in USA hot spots Chicago, Georgia, the Navajo Nation, New Orleans, and with the Lumbee Indian tribe in North Carolina.
Sean Penn’s CORE project… is an offshoot of his original 501 (c) 3 non-profit J/P HRO project and you can make tax-deductible donations of any amount to https://donate.coreresponse.org/give/232768/#!/donation/checkout
Outside of what China was able to accomplish in February in Hunan…this maybe the only plan currently active, that could possibly eradicate the Coronavirus worldwide, maybe by the end of 2020? This is similar to the methods used to eradicate smallpox in the 1950s-1980, and has been in progress to eradicate polio worldwide, that began in 1988 at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polio_eradication?
Perhaps Coronavirus worldwide eradication efforts…could add the Polio virus eradication effort, and be put together at the same time, so we get a “Two-for-One” eradication effort?
It will reduce spread, it can only decrease the speed of spread, the development of a vaccine or a specific treatment is required.
Preprint Are we now observing an increasing number of coinfections be...
USA in really bad shape this week! ...And we have many months of more suffering, with many more million sick and it does not have to happen that way?
USA--If you start with the 1,733,000 total cases today...and use Excel to extend out that trend line, here is what Excel is predicting at the current degree of lockdown:
June 2. - 2,000,000 - total cases.
July 4 - 2.5 million total cases.
--Now if the curve and trend line still is not flattened enough, then Excel is predicting by--
August 4 - 3 million total cases
September 24 - 3.5 million total case.
Then, it gets fuzzy after that...because that is when the traditional flu season gets started here. Another wild card, will be the loosening of the already too weak and "Lockdown-lite" measures, changing the trend lines to go up faster?
Another wild card, is more travel within the USA... and people coming from other still-infected countries? And the third wild card, is people stop wearing their masks, which is starting to happen right now in my area of the central California.