There is a common rule that any significant influenza epidemics (pandemic especially) must have a certain period of the virus preadaptation when the future epidemic/pandemic strain has hidden/slow circulation in a susceptible population (in case of influenza pandemics - in humans). This period is absolutely necessary for such a complex reassortant (mixture of genes that the 2009 pandemic strain had): several genes from avian flu, several- from swine flu, rest - from human flu). Such a scratchy (complicated) construction should be adapted for efficient replication in human epitelial cells to increase its replication activity and virulence... And during these several months of preadaptation this NEW virus reassortant, its field isolates should be detected in any part of the world by a comprehensive World influenza Surveillance system (WHO, CDC, National epidemiological services, etc.). Have anybody seen any papers, reports describing preliminary (pre-pandemic) detection and evaluation of the pandemic-like HINI "swine" flu reassortants ?
Dear Dr. Ponomarenko,
The occurrence of the Pandemic H1N1 in April 2009 was a sign of how ill prepared the surveillance systems were globally. WHO and other international bodies resorted to strengthening the surveillance systems globally and there were so many lessons learned by many following the event. I have shared with you the surveillance trend data from USA and also an article describing the various ways by which WHO tracks the Global Influenza activity and the challenges. WHO too admits that surveillance systems are in a preliminary stage of development.
Hope this helps.
Giridar
Dear Dr.Parameswaran,
Thanks a lot for these important and interesting papers.
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