A new report published in the British Medical Journal suggests that, in the UK, quarantine measures have killed more seniors than the coronavirus has. Similar increas in reported deaths, mainly among elderly were noticed in Sudan. Is it an international phenomenon?and in your opinion, what the reasons behind it?
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1931
I think that there are numerous factors that condition the high prevalence of deaths, among these are those already described associated with age, and the presence of comorbidities, however, some poorly described topics such as the presence of super spreader or co-infections could explain increases in mortality as other coronaviruses.
We will soon publish a manuscript that refers to the numerous germs that have already been isolated as a cause of coinfection, within which even triple infections have already occurred.
Annex the link of one of the associated factors, which could determine the outcome, the case of co-infections.
Bashier Ibrahim Osman Mahmudur Rahman
Preprint Are we now observing an increasing number of coinfections be...
Excess deaths not attributable to COVID-19 mortality has been widespread all over the globe.
Different factors have been responsible:
1. In Europe and Americas, elderly living alone died in silence because no body was there to look after them or take them to the hospitals, which were mainly utilised by COVID-19 patients.
2. Patients with chronic diseases, that were themselves high risk for morbidity and mortality, were not taken to hospitals due to the fear that such patients will get covid-19 infection in the hospitals.
3. I resource poor third world countries, where the patient has to pay for the medication and investigation costs, poor people died without being diagnosed with COVID-19.
4. People with cancer, heart disease, chronic disabilities were left to die at home rather than taking them to the hospitals due to fears of expenses, transportation costs, and that the caregiver would get the COVID-19.
5. Many people in long-stay, care-homes, or geriatric homes, or hospices in the Western world died because of quarantine, isolation, and logistic issues.
7. There were shortages, and price-hikes of certain life saving drugs contributing to nonadherence to treatment and deaths.
Social distancing was applied at different times with different doses. Those countries that responded early with an aggressive policy and had compliance from the general public have relatively few cases of Covid-19.
Social distancing measures can have significant effect on reducing the number of people affected with Covid-19 at any one time. It is almost inevitable that everyone will be infected, it is a matter of when. Social distancing allows healthcare systems time to organise and respond. The number of people infected is unlikely to change. However excess deaths occur when the capacity for healthcare systems to provide organ support is exceeded.
The economic cost of social distancing is huge and indeed may cause more deaths than Covid-19 itself.
An unfortunate adverse effect of social isolation for the Covid-19 pandemic has arisen. There has been a dramatic fall in the number of blood donors in Saudi Arabia a result of social isolation during the Covid-19 Pandemic. Supplies of blood are being depleted. This is likely to be a global phenomenon
Patients may die as a result of not being transfused blood for severe acute bleeding due to stress ulceration, for example.
If the patient has severe or critical Covid-19, the cause of death is actually the Covid-19 but it is likely to be coded as GI tract bleeding.
Lies, damned lies and statistics as Disraeli said. It will be impossible to unpick the true effect of Covid-19 on patient outcomes.
Alternative assumptions would be needed to make this assertion with a certainty criterion.