"Destiny", for a long time, has not been a category of history. It is studied as a concept that helped buttress the myth of superiority of some nations. Virgil did it in his Aeneid for Augustus, and this became the blueprint for many other who later tried to establish a political supremacy based on military power and cultural superiority, as Adolf Hitler did, and for which he had Albert Speer, his architect, the one who planned a city for the Reich that would seem beautiful even in its ruin 1,000 years later. It is historically evident that no nation will survive forever, and the very idea of nation will probably become obsolete (in fact, it is a fairly recent concept: according to Renan it is a 19th century concept). A nation will live longer (not forever) based on the will or lack of will and purpose of its people. Tyrannies are short-lived, nations that repress others in imperial pursuits are also shaky. I see that the "nations" that have survived have a strong traditional culture with imperial background, but the present state of financial insecurity points to a rearrangement of human groups sometime soon. Money matters are killing our countries. Territories are being exploited to such a degree that much of their resources are disappearing in a matter f months, as Anne Tsing points out in his excellent book "Friction: A Geography of Global Connection". Individuals who hold the money (1% of the population) seem to be trying to create "personal" nations. The future looks dire. Almost all the movies I have seen lately at movie theaters are all apocalyptic. That is not "destiny": that is our doing.

A small group of men and women are independent thinkers, have original ideas and distinguished personality, those who have creative spirit, and possess a strong will. They stand above the majority. These people take charge and some nations are blessed to have such personalities during their hour of need.

Think about all those genius musicians, artists, men and women of science, social reformers, and others who made our life rich. Do a thought experiment and imagine a world without their contribution. Unthinkable.

Absolutely, one that has no history has no future!

In fact, dear José Eduardo (and thank you for this enticing question), we can no longer think "locally" or "nationally". The global fate of our forests will impact us globally, as will the destruction of our water resources, our air, our food. The idea of "nation" is probably already obsolete. 

Lilliana

Dear All,

Regarding the second law of thermodynamics entropy is the most stable state or equilibrium of systems even living systems. Doing nothing but to wait for our destiny we approach physical and spiritual entropy.  I think with our free will and obtained freedom we can get negative entropy and are able in spite of accidents and chance to construct a better future and a better world. Is it an egoistic imagination to be able to avoid disorder?

History is a tapestry of events that represent the sum total conglomeration of accidents, chance, purposeful interactions, and non-interactions. To say that chance does not insidiate itself into history is to not study history.

How different would the growth and history of the American West have been if James Marshall had not noticed the gold flecks that started the California Gold Rush? He was hired by Sutter to build a water-powered mill, not a mine. What if someone else had been hired instead of Marshall?

What kind of world would it be if the Spanish Armada had not been eradicated by the storm (Chance? Accident?), but instead conquered England. For that matter, how different would history be if Umayyad Caliph Al-Walid had not decided to invade Spain (Purposeful interaction)? What if General Tariq ibn-Ziyad had refused (Purposeful non-interaction) to lead the army?

What if, in U.S. history, Rosa Parks had not refused to give up her bus seat to a white? What if she had never been arrested? Would there have been the boycotts, the protests, the marches against racial inequality, the social reform?

How different would the history of the United States and the world be if the assassination attempt on President Ronald Reagan had been successful? What if Reagan had not been alive to negotiate with Mikhail Gorbachev on the reduction of nuclear arms or tearing down the Berlin Wall?

Accident, chance, interaction, non-interaction, all of these things weave history together.

Dear all,

If historical events are the result of merely "impersonal forces" all our work is in vain, is mere waste of time.

If human freedom does not affect the course of history ..

What sense have the political, the science or any other activity?

If human freedom not affect the course of history...

The International Criminal Court is an absolute waste of time.

If so, the war criminals would be victims innocents...

Philadelphia, PA

Dear Jorge,

An "inevitable course" for nations or anything else suggest prediction of the future course of history. But this is a very doubtful kind of undertaking.

People make quite reasonable predictions all the time, and we are often very confident of them: "The sun will rise tomorrow;" "I'll be home by 6pm;" Regarding economic markets, "Whatever goes up must come down;" Or, more general predictions: "People will die tomorrow;" "Children will be born tomorrow," and it is not hard to go on in similar fashion. 

What is wanted, though, are more interesting predictions, and part of the problem with these is that any interesting models and predictions on which people come to depend, will subsequently enter into calculations concerning what to do. Any variables, though minor and taken for granted at first, and which support the expected outcomes, may then be exploited to subvert the expected outcomes. On the other hand, constancy of expected outcomes among large groups of people can lead on to "bandwagon effects."  For example, toward the end of a big run-up of the stock market, large numbers of "little guys" begin to join in on the expectation of quickly making a lot of money; however, when this happens, the larger investors often take this as a sign to cash in their chips and take their profits--and the upward tendency is then reversed.

In some sense, I think that the negative expectations we generally share, concerning the unwelcome effects of nationalisms are quite similar. Its a matter of confident political predictions or warnings. Everyone knows what has happened in the past, and that it involves a kind of bandwagon effect. At some point, though, the bandwagon begins to resemble the classical image of the lemmings all running off a cliff together. Introducing diversity helps meliorate the outcome, though this brings its own problems in turn. Where is the point of balance?

People keep interfering to exaggerate or to undercut the most reasonable predictions about the outcomes of human action, and that is part of the reason that the human future remains always up in the air. It depends on what we do, right? "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future"

H.G. Callaway

The large flow of history is inevitable. Inevitability might be considered to be connected to predictability. However, the factors that make a specific historical event inevitable are so complicated that prediction is almost impossible. In the flow of inevitable historical events, people's will and efforts to change the flow is not futile, because such will and efforts also come from inevitability and might make it possible that the time of the events they want would come earlier than without their efforts.

Philadelphia, PA

Dear Tabata,

You say that "the factors that make a specific historical event inevitable are so complicated that prediction is almost impossible."  "Almost," you say. But notice that if prediction of the future course of history is "impossible," which I think it is, then there is no way to test the claims for historical inevitability. Giving up on prediction, it seems you will be at a loss to defend claims of inevitability.Certainly, specific historical outcomes may be more or less likely, under given conditions, but "inevitable" is a very strong word--better avoided.

Briefly, what people will do in the future depends in part on what they will come to know. Knowledge is power, and new knowledge often represents a significant new human power --to intervene in the course of events. But the development of knowledge is neither predictable nor inevitable. Its not predictable, because if it were we wouldn't have to do science and research, we could instead sit back and predict its outcomes. Its not inevitable, because it depends on what we do and what we will do. If we give up on all scientific and scholarly discipline say, and merely follow along on media trends and popular opinions, then new knowledge is very unlikely to result.In consequence, the future course of history is neither predictable nor inevitable.

H.G. Callaway 

Both are important. History guide us for good things and we make contribute for making next chapter of history for our future generations.

Dated Determinism and Indeterminism debate.

I agree with Callaway that future is open.

There is a saying that we get the govt we deserve, and since the politicians steer the decisions, we get the history, that is being made day by day; history is written in small doses.  But in some countries, it is dangerous to say much.  Many persons make great sacrifices, fighting for justice, for equality.  But there is great need of caution, when whistle blowers can be metaphorically 'stabbed and shot'.

It plays. Also, we play a great role.

 I believe people and leaders, play a role in our destiny. Effective leaders should be proactive and not reactive in their decisions.

History is made, and recorded by people, in this sense, both historical figures and the general populance are the driving force that pushes history forward. 

The course of events in the future merely depends on nations, leaders, us, the people. Human affects the chain of historical events, no doubt about it. 

Good example is what is happening now with  Armenia and Azerbaijan!!!

The Marxist view was that the forces of History are ineluctable. Observation of history however suggests the exact opposite - that History unfolds like chaos theory, shockingly subject to the 'butterfly effect', with lone individuals operative at critical inflection points. A few spectacular cases in point:

·        Two little-known individuals - Vasili Arkhipov and Stanislav Petrov - changed history totally. If someone else, with different understanding, psychologies and/or hangups, had then been in their stead, we would not be here today. For instance, if someone with the psychology of Fidel Castro had been in either Arkhipov's or Petrov's stead, overwhelming psychological evidence indicates that the outcomes would have been extremely different (for a psychological portrait of Fidel Castro, see e.g. Michael Dobbs, 2008)

·        George W Bush profoundly changed world history single-handedly, in a way steered by his own personality, personal hangups, and educational and general knowledge background. His election was however decided on the flimsiest of bases by some 400-odd contested votes in the state of Florida (even though his opponent had a nationwide edge of some 543,000 popular votes over Bush, and there appeared to be voter registration issues in Florida, perhaps affecting thousands.) If his opponent Al Gore had won instead, it is certain that formative developments in world history since would have been very different.

·        World-changing operation Barbarossa was decided by one individual only, against the unanimous misgivings of everyone around him. It is impossible to underestimate the effects of OB on world history.

etc..... The examples are endless, both at macro and at micro levels

The history of the nations will be heavily influenced and manipulated both by religious and political ideologies. The leaders and common people are mere pawns or puppets, take the back seat and be a spectator in such transformation. That said, conflicts and wars are inevitable. Sure, history will record both good and bad and we will have an opportunity to witness!

Astrophysicist and Cosmos host Neil DeGrasse Tyson told MSNBC host Chris Hayes that while it’s audacious enough for human beings to say they’re capable of defining intelligence, he would still like to know if there’s other intelligent beings in the universe.

“My great fear is that we’ve in fact been visited by intelligent aliens,” DeGrasse Tyson said to Hayes. “But they chose not to make contact, on the conclusion that there’s no sign of intelligent life on Earth. How’s that for measures of intelligence?”. That means, noted scientists fears aliens ignored Earth because we’re too stupid!

As Stephen Hawkins put it, 'Earth could be at risk of an invasion by aliens living in 'massive ships'. 'If aliens ever visit us, I think the outcome would be much as when Christopher Columbus first landed in America, which didn’t turn out very well for the Native Americans.'

I just want to be very pragmatic rather than what I really wish for or what an ideal leader should behave or what is expected out of an ideal nation that will leave a positive image to all their citizens. 

 Hi Pandi,

I read your profile and very impressed. You got a very good imagination. I am wondering if your leaning towards  science fact is a loss for science fiction. Perhaps, with your background in botany you can start a new genre. 

Think of your talent. 

“Do you think that the history of nations follows an inevitable course or we, people and leaders, play a role in our destiny?”

Look around you and you will easily understand what is happening around the world, particularly some wars and permanent conflicts that have no rational explanation, even with some reflex in the Scientific and Academic community. Jesus Christ was crucified a long time ago. Even if this is common to all religions and universal human values, see “Pearls and Pigs, Matthew 7:6”.  

http://www.bible.ca/ef/expository-matthew-7-6.htm

@ Sirous. Thank you very much! That's very kind of you to say that! Especially compliments coming from an eminent scientist such as yourself. This will motive me to do better! 

In my opinion it is Fifty to Fifty

Dear Jose,

Histories are just reflections. They became reality when leaders tend to hang tight to their most selfish act the previous leaders have adopted to - good or bad. There is no inevitable courses for the nation to take but the leaders are the ones directing their own nations fate - by self-determination or self-depravation and never luck.

There is no way histories would repeat itself unless the leaders imposed upon themselves such actions as justifiable to themselves, if not to others.

The Bushes are examples of such bigots who lost their faces in peace and had resorted to unfair means of war to destroy Saddam so-called "Weapons of Mass Destructions" to guise their failure to empower America to its highest glory. It is self-malicious vindictive war of the highest level that both of them created  that killed ten and thousands of innocent American soldiers and the millions of innocent Iraq people till today. The sins of the father revisited his son with such hatred that Bush Jr. resorted to lying in the highest order to cover their failure in uplifting their very own country's mortgage loans scandals that affect most Americans that both could never handled manly enough thus grieving the world all over. Oil has been their primary target because of its extrinsic value and that's what they are jealous of when America could easily attain such same wealth and even more if they are industrious enough to locate oil rich zones without encroaching on other territories and with force too. Sadly, both are absolved from world highest crime court just because they are the presidents of America!

The Nixon Watergate is followed by Reagan Iran-gate. Both are opportunists who upset their own country's system because of extreme greed - a character seemingly a must in their presidential candidacy. These are examples of presidents of mass destructions.

The country could be best left to the likes of President Obama who sees peace as the solidarity of the world. Only defend the country upon aggressions and none other. To enrich the country with free trade agreement and open the global market to all.

Luck, accidents or chance has no place in creating great nations  - great leaders are! Human freedom can only change the nation's destiny like the Philippine's Mr Jose Rizal,  ex-Minister Mentor of Singapore - Mr Lee Kuan Yew and ex-Malaysia Prime Minister Mr Mahathir Mohd. It is indeed the leaders - great leaders role to ensure the nation flourished or diminished

Only then history will follow suit.

Best regards - Mariam

I think, both inevitable course as well as people/ leaders influence the history of a nation and our destiny. 

The history of nations, communities, people, does not follow an inevitable course that can be known from before. While post is always possible to see the elements that led certain phenomenon or event, ex ante is not feasible to recognize the elements that are defining the events. Although it can happen that something can be done by someone or be supplemented by another, that's not known before it happens and even can not be reliably predicted happened after. The story is a series of events, each of them accidental, but each limited to a framework as possible. Then there is a feasibility of an event at a given moment, not a necessity, and a subject can influence that this event is realized or not, being responsible for their actions, even when could have happened that another subject in the same circumstances he had acted identically. That's another point.

Prof. José Walter Pedroza Carneiro, Universidade Estadual de Maringá, Paraná (Brazil),, sent me his answer:

"The history of all the nations has a beginning. In general it start with the invasion from the stronger military nations. Thereafter, we can feel the consequences. South America is an example. The history of Roman Empire ends in Egypt. The question is why? In my opinion, the kingdom where today is the Sudan was strong enough to stop all the Roman army, or the weather conditions is hardy enough to impede the the alien people establishment. In Malmo, Sweeden, there is only the statue of the Roman soldier on the horse. The region is cold enough even from European from the South. Currently, is becaming different. The internet, the cinema, music and so on play a strong role in the domination, but the intimidation is the same. Every time you turn on the television, it is possible to see a hand gun pointed in your face in name of the justice. Best regards. Walter"

Both could be true.  The problem is that if we think that no one person can change the course of history then we stop trying to affect change and then change stops.  If you are on the other side of the issue then you would say that this was suppose to happen and therefore it proves the point.

I have a brain and it thinks like no other brain.  Everyone has the ability to affect change.  My brain is different than your brain.  I think of something and my experiences are different than yours and your are different from the person next to you and a woman's are different than a man and a boy or girls are different from anyone else.

We live very complex lives.  We live on a planet that is very simple in its motion and very complex in its makeup.  This balancing act that we play between a fragile live and complex brain makes use able to dream, love, play, and work.  We each set goal and plan in different ways for tomorrow.  We understand the complexity of many systems that we use every day like cars, plains, boats, power plants, space ships, communications, computers, and on and on.  The reason that all these complex systems exist is because someone understood that it could be done and then build or designed it.  Some one else paid for it and the rest of the world benefited from it.  Some times these things make the rest of the world pay with their lives for it and we step backwards for a time but still move forward. (War and weapons, crime, disease)

If there were no ability to have "free will" there would be no need to have anything but food, water, and shelter.  The idea of visiting another planet like Mar's would not be something that would even be on the minds of anyone.

We have the ability each and everyone of use to make change happen.  It is very complex and may not be able to be done by one person but it that one person does not even try than you are correct the course is set.

You must believe you can or there is no future, it is set.

I think that the EU was devised to avoid war between France and Germany, that were a faith in the past. This is an example of a successful decision against destiny.

I believe in the course of history.  Leaders are the product of that, but they can alter it sometimes, e.g., Barack Obama, but rarely.  Still, teh flow of history must be in their favor.

Dear All,

It is evident that an individual during his ephemeral lifespan cannot much or even anything change in world history. Except accidental events and not deliberate “successful” intentions. I do not want to mention instinctive evil-doers who were mostly psychopaths like Hitler, Stalin etc.

However, an individual may have much more opportunity to work at microhistory level. Can you bring up some of your activity with that you would be able to attain some change in your community, town, your nearer environment?   

Dear Cecilia,

“The most inevitable influence on a nation comes from the news and opinion media and its directional political rhetoric IMHO.”  Does IMHO mean “in my humble opinion”?

I think your statement can concern only a limited time span and space. Does it mean that not real actions and events matter but merely virtual or mind reflections initiated and made believed by politicians and media gurus. Does it mean that common people all over the world are only marionettes in kitschy soap-operas directed by untalented greedy capitalists?   Is it the brave new world?

"History has no subjunctive mood", but I will say that act or omission of duty from a man or a few people had a great impact on Russian history (just for an example, because I know it better than any other one) and destiny of millions people.   

The history I know best is my life story.  For example I saw this question yesterday but I could not figure out what to say.  I could not figure it out even 10 minutes ago. Then I read Alex saying that what he knew best. Then suddently I thought of saying this which I think demonstrate that history cannot be fortell.  I do not think that I was pre-destined to say what I just said.  It is a surprised for myself.  Now if even a trivial events in a person life are not predictable, if we put million and million of peoples together there are a few things that we can predict but since all actors are like me, in great part unpredictable even by themself , We can't predict what will happen tomorrow or five minutes from now for most part. 

No people or nation makes his own history in right the terms as it was originally planned or set out. A nation, yesterday as well as today, are open phenomena. There are surrounded by other nations and peoples and interact with them - for good or for bad. Chance and contingency play an important role - not to mention the forces of nature: earthquakes, and the like.

From a natural point of view, history is, as it has been said, what geology allows us to.

I would like to bring your attention to another side of problem: an obvious, very predictable, consequences of certain political/military actions are  ignored by politicians, and turn the World in more unstable, less predictable, situation.  It looks like old joke: Goofy is sawing the branch on which it sits, a passerby says: don't do this you will fall. Goofy saws, falling, getting hurt and says: He must be a Sorcerer!

It is a big question and can build serious decisions on its answer. If you think that we do not have any choice and we are forced to our destination, then there is no need to think or regret or even pray God, and this way of thinking leeds to surrender. I think that people have the ability to choose and decide according to their beliefs and ideologies. We people have a brain that can link and connect information, then analyse and interpret and decide. So, you will be asked about what you do and about what you do not do. From a religion point of view, we are shown the ways, and we who decide which way we go. If God knows everything about us now and in the future, his knowlege does not mean that he forces us to do what he knows, becaause the pre-knowlege of the future events doesn't mean obligation to do them.