The 1918 influenza Pandemic lasted for two years which killed Over 50 million people worldwide between 1918 - 1920. Considering the geometric progression of COVID-19 now, How long do you think this pandemic will last?
Presently, it may be difficult to forecast for how long Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic will last.
Till now, it is virtually uneasy to foretell the virus regression.
From the Influenza pandemic we have to consider the low-developed knowledge of that time. I have to agree with above said and tell you that, maybe, it won't take much longer as the Influenza took. Although this is a NEW covid, the cumulated knowledge till these days and the combined global effort will short this pandemic, IMO. What we really don't know is the life costs and this matters above all.
The current pandemic wave will end in the middle of June. The next wave will begin in late October. If decisive and professional measures are taken, then this second and “last” wave will end at the end of January 2021. Then a “respite” will be given for humanity for 1 - 2 years. It all depends on how quickly humanity recovers to the level that preceded the pandemic, especially to the level of real communication (air travel, mass tourism, and the like manifestations of globalism). The faster it recovers, the faster a new epidemic will develop that will turn into a pandemic. And this will not necessarily be COVID-19! It is very likely that there will be something new. Viruses come forever! They will not allow us to rise above the level at which human civilization was until recently (until COVID-19). True, there is one unlikely chance for humanity related to the fact that it suddenly grows wiser.
What would be completely stupid is to restore the old civilization. We will think that we are doing a good deed, in reality, we will only prepare the perfect food for viruses.
Dear Prof. Ekeleme Anthony
I would you to ask if oit is possible that profs Vladimir Valentinovich Egorov and Mahendra Pal can enlighten us with their views on the duration of the SARS-Cov-20 focus. Thank you so much in advance.
Question above includes: How long do you think this Pandemic will last?
On the predictability of pandemic duration a recent article is pertinent.
Predictability: Can the turning point and end of an expanding epidemic be precisely forecast?
by Mario Castro, Saúl Ares, José A. Cuesta, Susanna Manrubia
arXiv:2004.08842 [q-bio.PE]