In his 1963 book "little science, big science" Derek de Solla Price shows science as aa whole been growing exponentially for 400 years. He hypothesises this to be the first part of a logistic curve. If his predictions were right the growth of science should have been started to decline by now. Are there recent measurements that can be compared to his 1963 estimates? And... was he right?
As differentiation is vital for growth, even in a complex system such as the global scientific web, there is evidence of convergence spanning the period 1993-2008, that seems to suggest stagnation is underway globally and in some science portfolios, if we assume a logistic growth function.
Article Convergence in science: Growth and structure of worldwide sc...
Dear Shian, Thank you very much for sharing the working paper. Fabulous!
Dear Koen, it' s a wonderful question. I love de Solla Price book. I'll think about it.
In terms of one area or general field of science aerospace and astronomy, you might try looking at sociological surveys that track the popular cultural impact of science and its related public interest in science from the peak of the 1960s during the US Apollo space program until today.
Most of the statistics on this that I've found were from the OECD. The UN sometimes publishes statistics on this too. One organization where some of the papers deal with these statistics is Triple Helix, some of their papers are online. Needless to say any of the statistics on this are form one perspective or another, biased beyond use for some group.
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