As some vaccines are being launched among people worldwide and they are effective to a good extent, so we can hope about the ending of COVID-19 pandemic in 2021. But, new variants or some side effects of vaccination can lengthen the era of COVID-19 pandemic. Best regards.
I think there are 3 ways the pandemic will end quickly:
(1) Vaccination: The current shortage of vaccines will end quickly as more and more vaccines are licensed, as some countries have been hoarding and will soon dump the surplus vaccines on the market, and last but not least as production capacities are expanded.
(2) Herd immunity: Even in countries where vaccination is delayed and insufficient, more and more people are becoming immune because they already have COVID19 behind them.
(3) Because the virus tends to mutate in the long run so that it becomes more and more infectious, but much less deadly. Even if this is not yet the case, e.g. with the British variant, in the long run such variants could prevail and end the pandemic in its current form.
Unfortunately, other scenarios are also conceivable:
(1) The virus mutates in a form that renders at least some vaccines useless and thus significantly prolongs the pandemic, especially in the countries where the then useless vaccines were used.
(2) The virus mutates in a form that favours re-infection. This would particularly affect countries with already very high infection rates and little progress in vaccination.