In my recent study I'm trying to investigate the causes of one patient's severity of his condition of severe epileptic syndrome. For this purpose I took 8 samples of night urine after the days with various values of Severity. There is a scale of day's severity from 0 (everything is fine) till 10 (Status Epilepticus). Then we did chromatography for 168 organic acids, and there was only 1 acid with correlation coefficient more than 0.75 (absolute value). This is Salicyluric acid.

Attached are two graphs, which show the high negative correlation between day's severity and concentration of that acid in urine. Of course this isn't the evidence of the existence of causality between these values.

But if the causality exists, what is the direction of it: from concentration of Salicyluric acid to severity or vice versa?

Are there any ideas?

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