Logical Algorithm for the operation of the tsunami warning system. First of all, the place and time of a strong sea earthquake is fixed and a decision is made that there is reason to worry about the formation of a tsunami. Secondly, anomalies in the measurement data of buoy stations of the DART system are studied (anomalies are selected automatically). If the station indicates that the wave height is significant, then an alarm is announced (usually the height of a tsunami in the ocean is up to 50 cm). Everything is simple and clear.
In fact, the DART system applies a different logic.
Let's look at the logic of DART after a strong earthquake in the Tonga region on May 10, 2023.
DART received information about a strong ocean earthquake. The picture is attached.
DART station #51425 (700 km from the epicenter) and a station in the Hawaiian Islands area automatically gave an alarm about unusual sea level fluctuations. They showed it on the official DART website. An anomaly 23 cm high was recorded at DART station No. 51425. I attached a general graph, its details. The table highlights the start time of the anomaly.
The text of the official announcement surprises. Quote: "EVALUATION - Based on the depth of the earthquake, a tsunami is not expected". The algorithm does not provide for the analysis of the depth of the earthquake, the depth of the ocean, tectonic features. This is an engineering, not a scientific system. Errors are not allowed here. Have you recorded a tsunami or not. There is no third.
The DART measurement system showed a “wave” 23 cm high, but gave no warning. This cannot be done. This will discredit the entire project.
In many of our scientific publications (for example, our book Volume 3. Previously unknown aspects of the formation of climate, weather, including natural hazards) and in discussions, I have pointed out the wrong decision-making procedure for declaring a tsunami alert.
Check out my discussions:
Tsunami waves and problems of early warning.
Why does everyone know that the physical model of tsunami generation is wrong, but they continue to use it and teach children?.
Is it possible to consider a tsunami wave as a Rayleigh wave?
What type of wave does the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART®) mistake for a tsunami?
DART gives false tsunami alerts to the public. What reason?
These discussions talk about the many erroneous decisions made to evacuate the population based on the results of DART. This resulted in large economic losses. But the most important thing is the discrediting of the most modern and expensive system of automatic fixation and early warning of the approach of a tsunami. The humanitarian mission of this system is enormous, given the casualties that usually accompany the arrival of a tsunami on the coast, especially in areas of active tourism business. It turned out that the reason for the unsuccessful organization of the global tsunami warning system was an elementary misunderstanding of both the physical nature of the tsunami and the simple, actually well-known, patterns of its propagation.
Look at the timing of the Tonga earthquake and the timing of the anomaly recorded by DART #51425. A tsunami wave cannot cover a distance of 700 km in 165 seconds. The tsunami speed is about 0.2 km/s, not 4,200 km/s.
It turns out that the nature of the measured anomaly at DART station No. 51425 is not a tsunami. Judging by the propagation speed, the recorded anomaly is the fluctuations of the seabed during the passage of the Rayleigh seismic wave.
Can the automatic sea level recorder (DART) distinguish between sea level changes associated with the passage of tsunami waves and sea floor oscillations during the passage of a seismic Rayleigh wave? The answer is it can't.
If the stations do not allow this, then in the DART tsunami warning centers this can be done simply by changing the decision-making algorithm. If the time of fixing the ocean level anomaly by the DART station coincides in time with the expected time of the tsunami approach from the earthquake epicenter, an alarm is announced. This is right?
DART doesn't know about it.
I will repeat the simple algorithm once again. There are approximately 700 km between the epicenter of the earthquake and DART station No. 51425. The wave came in 165 seconds, that is, at a speed of 4.2 km/s. During this time, the tsunami wave travels only 33 km (velocity 200 m/s). It is easy to understand that the recorded anomaly is the vibrations of the seabed during the passage of the Rayleigh seismic wave. There is no need to pay attention to this anomaly. With the coordinates of this earthquake at DART station No. 51425, you need to start evaluating the data no earlier than 45 minutes later.
It's elementary simple, but DART doesn't understand us?
Dear Borys Kapochkin ,
You have started a very interesting discussion...
FirsI Would like to ask a questuions:
Did the earthquake in question cause a tsunami? How big was the tsunami?
Where did measured?
Regards,
Laszlo
All information about the tsunami (dangerous earthquakes, observational data, warning tests) on the site https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/
Dear László Attila Horváth.
This is not a discussion. This is the tenth attempt to eliminate the illiteracy of tsunami warning system engineers.
Dear Borys Kapochkin .
At the link:
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/
I did not find the response to the question:
Did the earthquake in question cause a tsunami? How big was the tsunami?
Where did measured?
Regards,
Laszlo
Dear Borys Kapochkin ,
Thanks,
In connection to arissen probleme by you give my opinion in private... The question was asked for a basic reason... I would like to discuss same in case of last case too:
M 7.7 - SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS - 2023-05-19 02:57:05 UTC
https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=1262937
Regards,
Laszlo
After a strong earthquake in the Pacific Ocean (in a deep trench and a shallow hypocenter), four DART stations gave an alert that a tsunami wave had passed through them (the stations are shown by arrows in the diagram). Everything would be fine, but one of the stations recorded a tsunami in the Indian Ocean. That is, the tsunami wave passed through Australia?
This is how the DART tsunami passage fixing tool works.
If anyone trusts this tsunami fixing tool, please write about it.
After a strong earthquake, according to DART 55023, engineers were required to give an erroneous tsunami alert. The reason is that station 55023 actually recorded three "tsunami waves???" with a period of 1 minute and a height of up to 20 cm. The earthquake was at a depth of 30 km and for this reason there was no reason to cancel the tsunami warning. The last time the tsunami alert was canceled (ignoring the measurement data) due to the fact that the earthquake was deep-focus and for this reason "should not generate a tsunami."
At the epicenter of the earthquake, the ocean depths (thickness of the water layer) were sufficient to generate a tsunami (see point 1 of our tsunami generation theory).
How do they decide not to report a tsunami when all the factors point to tsunami generation? Maybe the DART engineers are asking the medium for advice???
Magnitude Mw 7.1
Region SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
Date time 2023-05-20 01:51:00.9 UTC
Location 22.94 S ; 170.56E
Depth 30 km
The earthquake is weaker than the previous one and in the same place, but despite this, an alarm has been declared within a radius of 300 km.
Tsunami alert text:
BASED ON THE PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS... HAZARDOUS TSUNAMI WAVES ARE POSSIBLE FOR COASTS LOCATED WITHIN 300 KM OF THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER.
As far as I understood, the tsunami did not form.
Look at the map and graph.
Back to the tsunami from the earthquake
Magnitude Mw 7.7
Region SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
Date time 2023-05-19 02:57:05.7 UTC
Location 23.19 S ; 170.76 E
Depth 30 km
Let's look at the recording of the DART buoy.
We all see two automatic transitions of the measurement system in 15 seconds mode (the line turns red). That is, the device recorded an anomaly twice. The first time at three hours 12 minutes. This is 15 minutes after the earthquake. This is the fixation of vibrations of the seabed by a seismic Rayleigh wave. The second anomaly is the tsunami wave. She arrived at station 55023 a few hours after the earthquake. This is a real tsunami. The arrival of a tsunami wave is not recorded by DART engineers and, for this reason, is not analyzed during the acceptance of a tsunami warning. It's very sad...
I am very glad to state that the algorithm of the tsunami early warning system has been changed.
Magnitude Mw 7.2
Region SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
Date time 2023-06-15 18:06:27.8 UTC
Location 23.02 S ; 177.16W
Depth 160 km
The system does not show the recording of Rayleigh seismic waves by the sensors.
Congratulations.
Система не показує запис сейсмічних хвиль Релея датчиками.
Вітаю.
MagnitudeMw 6.2
RegionTONGA REGION
Date time2023-06-16 19:10:54.4 UTC
Location23.85 S ; 175.83 W
Depth25 km
I made a mistake in the previous two texts.
The DART system still uses a nonsensical algorithm for primary processing of buoy station observation data.
I see it from the recording of the "tsunami" near Australia (see the DART map) after the earthquake in Iran.
Magnitude mb 5.0
Region SOUTHERN IRAN
Date time 2023-06-21 05:12:22.8 UTC
Location 27.99 N ; 56.13 E
Depth 10 km
Detailed recording of the alleged "tsunami" on the DART scheme.
It is very unfortunate that the DART system is still discrediting itself.
The population was informed that the earthquake had generated a tsunami.
Earthquake information (emsc-csem.org)
Magnitude 7.4
Region ALASKA PENINSULA
Date time 2023-07-16 06:48:20.0 UTC
Location 54.488 ; -160.822
Depth 10 km
NDBC - Станція 46403 Останні дані (noaa.gov)
See what the adjacent station in the west and the adjacent station in the east have recorded.
NDBC - Станція 46414 Останні дані (noaa.gov)
text:
FORECASTS OF TSUNAMI ACTIVITY ----------------------------- * Tsunami activity is forecasted to start at the following locations at the specified times. FORECAST START SITE OF TSUNAMI ---- ---------- * Alaska Sand Point 0010 AKDT Jul 16 Kodiak 0035 AKDT Jul 16 Cold Bay 0135 AKDT Jul 16 OBSERVATIONS OF TSUNAMI ACTIVITY -------------------------------- * No tsunami observations are available to report. RECOMMENDED ACTIONS ------------------- Actions to protect human life and property will vary within tsunami warning areas. If you are in a tsunami warning area; * Evacuate inland or to higher ground above and beyond designated tsunami hazard zones or move to an upper floor of a multi-story building depending on your situation. * Move out of the water, off the beach, and away from harbors, marinas, breakwaters, bays and inlets. * Be alert to and follow instructions from your local emergency officials because they may have more detailed or specific information for your location. * If you feel a strong earthquake or extended ground rolling take immediate protective actions such as moving inland and/or uphill preferably by foot. * Boat operators, * Where time and conditions permit, move your boat out to sea to a depth of at least 180 feet. * If at sea avoid entering shallow water, harbors, marinas, bays, and inlets to avoid floating and submerged debris and strong currents. * Do not go to the shore to observe the tsunami. * Do not return to the coast until local emergency officials indicate it is safe to do so. IMPACTS ------- Impacts will vary at different locations in the warning areas. If you are in a tsunami warning area; * A tsunami with damaging waves and powerful currents is possible. * Repeated coastal flooding is possible as waves arrive onshore, move inland, and drain back into the ocean. * Strong and unusual waves, currents and inland flooding can drown or injure people and weaken or destroy structures on land and in water. * Water filled with floating or submerged debris that can injure or kill people and weaken or destroy buildings and bridges is possible. * Strong and unusual currents and waves in harbors, marinas, bays, and inlets may be especially destructive. * Some impacts may continue for many hours to days after arrival of the first wave. * The first wave may not be the largest so later waves may be larger. * Each wave may last 5 to 45 minutes as a wave encroaches and recedes. * Coasts facing all directions are threatened because the waves can wrap around islands and headlands and into bays. * Strong shaking or rolling of the ground indicates an earthquake has occurred and a tsunami may be imminent. * A rapidly receding or receded shoreline, unusual waves and sounds, and strong currents are signs of a tsunami. * The tsunami may appear as water moving rapidly out to sea, a gentle rising tide like flood with no breaking wave, as a series of breaking waves, or a frothy wall of water. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND NEXT UPDATE -------------------------------------- * Refer to the internet site tsunami.gov for more information. * Pacific coastal residents outside California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia and Alaska should refer to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center messages at tsunami.gov. * This message will be updated within 30 minutes.
The tsunаmi fixing station No. 46403 recorded a wave with a height of 0.5 meters and a period of 120 seconds. But it turned out that the tsunami earthquake did not generate a tsunami wave. The official tsunami warning turned out to be wrong. WEAK51 PAAQ 160847 TSUAK1 BULLETIN Public Tsunami Message Number 5 NWS National Tsunami Warning Center Palmer AK 1247 AM AKDT Sun Jul 16 2023 ...THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... * The Tsunami Advisory is canceled for the coastal areas of South Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula OBSERVATIONS OF TSUNAMI ACTIVITY - UPDATED ------------------------------------------------ * Observed max tsunami height is the highest recorded water level above the tide level up to the time of this message. TIME OBSERVED MAX SITE OF MEASUREMENT TSUNAMI HEIGHT ---------------------------------- ---------------- ------ -------- King Cove Alaska 0118 PDT Jul 16 0.5ft Sand Point Alaska 0118 PDT Jul 16 0.5ft
My comments. The wave arrived at tsunami station No. 46403 in 2 minutes. Wave speed is about 2-3 km/s. Conclusion. This is a seismic Rayleigh wave. The sea wave of the tsunami should have been expected in about 30 minutes, and not in 2 minutes. Statement. The system warns of tsunami danger without measuring the tsunami. It measures other waves. Not tsunami sea waves, but seismic waves. Rayleigh waves are not dangerous. Why is there no change in the decision-making algorithm for tsunami warning? Why don't any of you recommend that DART specialists look at these materials?
How can this be explained? The earthquake is minor. On the mariogram, the Rayleigh wave and the tsunami wave at the same time? But these waves have very different speeds - kilometers per second and hundreds of kilometers per hour (tsunami). ?????
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