There are several influential factors that determine the direction and speed of change:

1. Strength of the oil lobby

2. Strength of Lobby that support electric vehicles (on the rise)

3. Environmental Awareness (although there are also various discussions about eco-friendliness of electric cars are - even some analysts say that LCA of electric cars lead to more polluting than oil cars) (it's a question of the structure of electricity produced - it's a different structure by country)

4. Directives (EU) and laws directly supporting the development of electric cars (eg Energy Performance of Buildings directive ((EU) 2018/844, Article 8 Technical building systems, electromobility and smart readiness indicator)

5. Speed ​​of development of electric charging infrastructure

6. Speed ​​of battery development (capacity, performance)

7. Oil price and electricity price

8. Price of electric vehicles compared to conventional vehicles

9. Incentives from States to Buy Electric Vehicles

10. Urban Transport Strategy

11. Other factors

According to Wikipedia, there is an expanding list of countries have proposed to ban the future sale of passenger vehicles powered by fossil fuels such as gasoline, LPG and diesel. These include India, China (the largest auto market globally), Japan (the third largest auto market globally) that has comprehensive plans for a "hydrogen economy" by 2040, South Korea, Taiwan, also the EU auto market nations of Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Spain, and Portugal, as well as Costa Rica in Central America. The intent to ban vehicles powered by fossil fuels is attractive to governments as it offers simpler target compliance as it is focused on a specific industry, compared with a more encompassing carbon tax or phase-out of fossil fuels.The automotive industry is working to introduce electrified vehicles to adapt to bans with varying success. A partial ban enacted in 2012 by California, requiring that 15% of new vehicles offered for sale between 2018 and 2025 must be Zero Emission Vehicles ZEVs) in order for the automaker to sell any vehicles in the state, has yielded 8% compliance.

Reasons for banning further sale of fossil fueled vehicles include to meet national climate targets under international agreements to reduce carbon emissions that cause climate change, energy independence, or health risk due to local emissions.

Besides all the regulation and legislation, the technology will prove itself, now that there is a growing awareness with the users.

Similar to mobile phones with keyboards, tube-based ty-screens, steam engines and walkman - the list can go on and on - the better and cheaper technology will take over.

Driving an electric vehicle is so much better than an ICE.

Once you experienced the difference yourself, there is no way back.

It is assumed that by latest 2025 it will be cheaper to build an EV than a combustion engine car - game over.

The real power is with the consumers - if they learn about the benefits by experience and not by polemic talks in the media, they will change.

And if those companies NOT offering the better solutions lose their markets, they will have to follow.

To prevent losing their shares, they'd have to innovate.

One way or the other - the ICE is fading away.

Most likely sooner than expected.

All the fossil fuel vehicles used will almost come to a closure in the coming years. Hence, other source vehicles started developing. People always change gradually as and when the technology is advancing. There will not be a sudden change and information be passed to manufacturers from time to time and accordingly the manufacturers react and modify the vehicles to the situations. I think, the transition period will not come into existence.

My view:

Book The State of Electromobility 2018

Dear respected colleagues and scholars. Please participate in the discussion and give your comments.

Thank you very much.

Dear Mladen Bošnjaković , Jorge Morales Pedraza , Martin Schulz , Pisipaty Srinivas Kishore and Markus Lienkamp ,

Thank you very much for your enlighted and useful comments.

Dear respected scholars, please join our important and interesting discussion at:

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