Rais Foudil

Integrating energy security and technological sovereignty into hydrogen policy planning requires a multi-layered approach, combining strategic foresight, scenario planning, and adaptive governance frameworks. One prominent framework is the Three As of Energy Security—availability, accessibility, and acceptability—often used alongside Technological Readiness Assessment (TRA) and SWOT analyses to evaluate dependencies and innovation capabilities. These tools help countries assess risks associated with relying on foreign technologies or supply chains, particularly in the hydrogen value chain (electrolyzers, storage, transport).

Another useful approach is the Strategic Niche Management (SNM) framework, which supports the co-development of emerging technologies and policy by nurturing local innovation ecosystems. Coupled with Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) thinking, it enables policy planners to track transitions across socio-technical regimes, ensuring sovereignty is built into hydrogen R&D and manufacturing.

Scenario planning tools like Shell’s Energy Scenarios or the IEA Hydrogen Roadmap can be adapted nationally to forecast multiple futures—including geopolitical tensions or green tech nationalism—so that hydrogen policies remain resilient and aligned with both domestic capacities and long-term sovereignty goals.