I am looking for extensive research paper covers the predicted prices of the oil and the gas.
Dear Researchers,
You refer to the publications of IEA (International Energy Agency), They publish a series reports on the name world energy outlook or with respect to some specific countries etc. Please refer to it.
Hope this would help you...!!
Thank you.
Regards,
Nallapaneni
Thank you Dear Nallapaneni, but I am looking for an extensive research papers that deal with the prediction of the oil and gas prices under different scenarios. I will have a look at the IEA reports.
Best Regards
Ashraf
All major oil companies perform this analysis on a regular basis and typically report their findings around the time they release their annual reports. They are usually as honest as they can be but their outlook is sometimes biased by their wish that oil demand remains high. Oil production forecast is actually a demand forecast. Oil is a commodity and oil companies will produce as much as the public demands.
As Nallapaneni has pointed out EIA does an excellent job forecasting oil supply and demand,
MIT (under Prof Moniz before he became secretary of energy)prepared a "Future of ..." series that predict Oil, Coal, Natural Gas Nuclear, Soar energy etc. It is a bit dated but it is occasionally updated. I highly recommend it,
Gas prices are highly dependent on location. The US is experiencing a boom in natural gas production so prices are low. China and India imports LNG so process are high.
Energy price predictions rely on assumptions about supply and demand that are usually wrong (at least about timing) as a result prediction are often incorrect but they are still useful
Dear Rick, thank you very much for your answer it was very helpful.
Best Regards
Ashraf
Dear Ashraf Khalil,
If we are not getting the predicted data for future in the literature, we have an option to predict the scenarios for near by futures by using the mathematical modeling.
But the only problem is the correct and efficient tunning of weight ratio should be done.
A simple example:
If we want to predict the scenario of one variable in 2020 with the available data of present year i.e. 2017.
Frame this scenario as an equation considering the dependent variables
x2020=f(other parameters starting from 2017 to 2020)
x2020=f[(x2017*Weight Ratio)+....(x2020*weight ratios)]
In this case, the weight ratios of each variable will vary if we can tune them effectively we can easily predict the future values with respect to various influencing parameters.
hope this would help you...!!
Regards,
Nallapaneni Manoj Kumar
Dear Nallapaneni, thank you very much for the valuable information.
Best Regards
Ashraf
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/0383(2017).pdf
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/energy-2050-insights-from-the-ground-up
http://www.ourenergypolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/DNV-GL_Energy-Transistion-Outlook-2017_oil-gas_lowres-single_3108_3.pdf
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