Gulshani Ansari

Climate change in the Himalayan-Karakoram-Hindu Kush (HKH) region, which includes parts of India, Pakistan, China, Nepal, Bhutan, and Afghanistan, has become a serious threat to security and geopolitical stability. This region is crucial due to its water resources, which supply billions of people in Asia and globally, and climate change has a profound impact on both security and economic development.

Climate change leads to reduced snow cover and accelerated glacier melting, which severely threatens water supply in the region. The countries in the HKH region recognize these changes as a significant security challenge, as the reduction in water resources directly impacts agriculture, industry, and daily life. Given the growing pressure on resources, political tensions and conflicts over limited access to water are likely to arise.

Tensions over water resources already exist, particularly between India and Pakistan, who compete for control of the Indus River, while China controls the sources of many rivers flowing into neighboring countries. Climate change further complicates these political relations, as reduced water flow could escalate conflicts and destabilize the region.

Water in the HKH region has become a key geopolitical tool that countries use to gain strategic advantages. China, as the dominant player, controls the sources of major rivers, including the Brahmaputra, allowing it to influence the politics and economies of neighboring countries. The use of water as a political pressure tool is becoming increasingly common – for instance, China has considered building dams on the Brahmaputra River, which would significantly reduce water flow into India and Bangladesh.

Similarly, India uses water resources as a tool for political pressure on Pakistan. After the deterioration of bilateral relations, India threatened to reduce water flow to Pakistan, which would have direct negative consequences on agriculture and living conditions. This trend shows how water can become a means for achieving political goals, making the region vulnerable to tensions and conflicts.

Given the seriousness of the threats posed by climate change and geopolitical rivalries, countries in the HKH region are beginning to recognize the importance of cooperation in water management. There are multilateral initiatives, such as those under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which examine the impact of climate change on water resources. However, cooperation is hindered by political disagreements and historical tensions between countries, slowing efforts toward sustainable water resource management.

We addressed aspects of this question in the book https://doi.org/10.1108/S2040-7262(2012)11 which could be updated now.

The Geopolitics of Climate Change between the Hindu-Kush Himalayan (HKH) countries—which include Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, China, and Myanmar—are shaped by a complex interplay of environmental vulnerabilities, water politics, regional rivalries, and cooperation opportunities.