To what extent can the large-scale transition to organic agriculture contribute to national and global greenhouse gas reduction targets, and what are the potential trade-offs in terms of yield, land use, and food security?
This is an interesting and important question. Only for the direct agricultural production I see two additional sources of carbon sequestration in organic agricultural practices compared to conventional: 1) the organic build of crop (and often in addition: agroforestry = trees & shrubs) is based on organic fertilization, i.e. from organic material rather than from chemicals. 2) Mulching done with organic material that is getting part of the soil organic matter.
For these two factors I would expect a continously increased carbon fixation rate of maybe 2-fold over conventional but I am sure precise calculations do exist already...?
In addition, the significantly more diverse and developed soil biota itself will also contribute to carbon storage.
See our work here: Chapter Long-Term Control of Desertification: Is Organic Farming Sup...
Finally, organic cultivation practices typically will include reduced use of landmachines, particularly that of heavy ones that can overly compress soil.
So -truly a calculation that includes all related factors, also the CO2 emission from fertilizer production & distribution, would be really interesting to see.
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