It is not easy to forecast or predict an earthquake and till now there has been no successful prediction in history except one from a Chinese researcher in the mid-70s. But for the last few weeks, people have been expecting that planetary alignments are indicators of seismic events. So being an earthquake researcher I think it is quite difficult to highlight the exact area of the upcoming seismic events with the help of this technique. I need opinions from the scientific community on this topic.
Dear Aftab,
My research has produced evidence that gravitational jounce (2nd time derivative of acceleration of magnitude) exchanged with Mars helps to trigger some very large quakes. Maximum jounce typically occurs about 6-8 weeks before or after perigee with Mars. The last perigee with Mars occurred on November 30, 2022. I haven’t calculated maximum jounce for this latest synodic period, but have for the previous three periods and there are strong associations with very large quakes (Magnitude >\= 7.5). The recent very large quakes in Turkey/Syria occurred about 8+ weeks after apogee. My work about Mars is available here on ResearchGate or on our website: Celestial-Geodynamics.org
Please allow me to suggest some arguments against my hypothesis:
1. Mars is too small a mass and too far away to help trigger very large quakes. Sounds logical and is very intuitive, correct? Of course, but at some point one must give weight to the evidence. That is Science!
2. Gravitational exchanges are maximum during perigee. This is true, but so what? Maximum attraction seems not to matter here. Very large quakes appear to be commensurately associated to the magnitude of jounce. We must give weight to the data!
Please feel free to contact us if you want more information.
I agree with your researches.
In fact, in China, several old scientists work on this topic and write books for their research results. Now we consider this as a kind of triggering. Sometime it worked while some time it didn't work. It depended on the stress state of the reacting area.
Dear Aftab Alam , Fuqiong Huang , Douglas Zbikowski ,
The answer to your question is clearly no! If such an event occurs, it is a coincidence...
I say this because I have made several successful earthquake predictions...
the last one happen ten days ago:
... https://www.researchgate.net/post/Exists-the-next-situation-when-an-outsider-researcher-who-has-achieved-a-very-encouraging-result-in-earthquake-forecasting-is-not-supported/111
So my view is that it is possible to predict crustal earthquakes...
All you need is the right will to predict an earthquake...It's been five years since I woke up to some of my natural principles that enabled me to predict earthquakes.
But no one cared. I did not predict the Turkey earthquake 02.06.2023, because I want to finish paper about the graviton.
I have a forecast for China, but for this, my expectations would have to be met... I am not thinking about financial conditions now.
I have neither the tools nor the existential conditions (hence the time) to properly prepare the conditions that are required.
Regards,
Laszlo,
Dear Aftab Alam.
The values of the planetary tidal force multiplier (x
0.0000000001 dyn).
Mercury 118, Venus 269, Earth 123, Mars 4, Jupiter 280, Saturn 13, Uranus 0.3, Neptune 0.08, Pluto 0.002.
Тhen think for yourself.
Especially for you, as an employee of the National Center for PhysicsCenter for Earthquake Studies, I will quote from the discussion "Is it possible to predict earthquakes with current human science?", in which I took part. You will learn many new things for yourself.
Quote "Many facts of the announcement of the earthquake forecast a few days before it have been recorded. This includes the prediction of an earthquake on February 4, 1975 in China (M7.3) and the successful evacuation of the city of Haichen with a population of one million people two days before the destruction of the city by a strong jolt. the marine seismogenic zone of Kamchatka (Pacific Ocean), a short-term earthquake forecast was continuously carried out from 1991 to January 1996 under the program of the Ministry of Geology. were two earthquakes with М=7.2. thquake prediction method (1986); Method for predicting the possibility of an earthquake (1987); A method for determining the phase of tectonic activity during the preparation of an earthquake (1993)).
why do we judge only at the level of the gravitational field? Are there no disturbances or..focuses on the other existing components/force fields (interplanetary magnetic, ion flux, cosmic radiation, etc.)? Are they no longer taken into account in the current situation? (are we forgetting about them?)
Sergey@ what do you think?
Dear Dan Grigore. There are about 600 (according to official seismologists, but I didn’t count) different precursors. The problem is that you need to have a precursor that gives a reliability of the place-time-force forecast of about 100% with an advance of the beginning of the earthquake by hours - a hundred hours, the time accuracy should not be worse than 20 - 30 minutes. This gives a forecast for the Kozyrev-Yagodin wave. Others do not, but perhaps if you use a dozen precursors you can get a positive result. In this case, the determining requirement will be reliability and cost.
Уважаемый Дэн Григоре. Есть около 600 (если верить официальным сейсмологам, но я не считал) разных предвестников. Проблема в том, что нужно иметь предвестник, который дает достоверность по прогнозу место-время-сила около 100% с опережением начала землетрясения на часы - сотню часов, точность по времени не должна быть хуже 20 - 30 минут. Прогноз по волне Козырева-Ягодина это дает. Другие не дают, но, возможно, если использовать десяток предвестников можно получить положительный результат. При этом определяющим требованием станет надежность и стоимость.
Dear Douglas Zbikowski. You are very close to the truth. In addition to the gravitational connection, there must be conditions for the continuation of the process. They ensure the creation of a reverse Kozyrev-Yagodin wave. And then the reliability becomes 100%, since the same forces influence the anomalies and the magnitude of the future shock. It's simple physics. I am waiting for the release of my report at SEISMO-2023.
The examinations and the practical test were completed successfully. The method is recommended by official experts and commissions. They are trying to hide it so as not to lose grants, and people may die so that scientists do not lose grants.
Уважаемый Дуглас Збиковски. Вы очень близки к истине. Кроме гравитационной связи должны быть условия для продолжения процесса. Они обеспечивают создание обратной волны Козырева-Ягодина. И тогда достоверность становится 100%, так-как на аномалии и на магнитуду будущего толчка влияют одни и те же силы. Это простая физика. Я жду выхода моего доклада на SEISMO-2023.
Экспертизы пройдены успешно. Метод рекомендован официальными экспертами и комиссиями. Его пытаются скрыть, чтоб не потерять гранты, а люди могут гибнуть, чтоб ученые не потеряли гранты.
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