The limitations of forecasting (real-time statistical) and predictive (dynamic epidemiological) models have become apparent as COVID-19 has progressed from a rapid exponential ascent to a slower decent, which is dependent on unknowable parameters such as extent of social distancing and easing. We present a means to optimize a forecasting model by functionalizing our previously reported Asymmetric Gaussian model with SEIR-like parameters. Conversely, SEIR models can be adapted to better incorporate real-time data.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.16.20104430v2

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.21.20136937v1.article-metrics

https://syage-covid19-assessment.com/

Discussion welcome.