I decided to start a discussion on that topic following my recent publication of a simplified model which is not more as a rough estimation of what we can expect in the Corona Crisis:
Preprint A simplified model for expected development of the SARS-CoV-...
The Key questions we should answer are
- which maximum of infected cases/ deaths do we expect?
- when do we expect the maximum and how does the curve of infected cases look like in general?
- how looks the recovery rate, shape of the recovery curve?
- how can we avoid such a spread in the future?
- how can we install a warning system that tells us early enough when a pandemia is expected again, in more detail: from which point do we have enough information to calculate the infection curves? (fitting the parameters or calculating the curves with ab initio calculations?)
For me it is quite surprising that there are so rare studies that really make clear prognosis for the future (with date on the x-axis and cases on the y-axis) while you find a lot of different models and analyses behind. From the actual numbers we got from several countries and continuous monitoring of social distancing, daily calculated growth factors and infection rates we should be able to do better, or? I am expecting to see such curves after discussions with experts and authorities in the media to give people some hope where we will go if they strictly follow the rules. Actually we more likely find "news tickers" where the infection of single persons or any random number is exposed. I think we do very well with the measures but quite bad with the information policy/politics.
Actually I started to refine the published model and I am very interested in collaborations. My very best wishes! Stay healthy!
Nice Article Dr. Franz-Josef Schmitt published by you. Severe restrictions taken in Germany will help in controlling the virus and also in other countries.
Social distancing must be maintain for certain period to avoid this virus.
This is an interesting point. We must strongly connect research and discussions on Covid-19 with the interference in natural habitats, diet, ecology, biodiversity etc... this is actually mainly done by NGOs and not content of scientific studies.