I am to assess the impacts of climate change on agricultural production and local markets in Ghana, Benin and Burkina Faso and through scenarios perform some simulations.
There two things you should bear in mind 1)Climate change and 2)Climate variability
1.In order to qualify there is a climate change,we need to analyze at least 30 years climatic data(Remember the definition for the term Climate=average weather conditions of a place over at least 30 years). So, to relate climate change and agric production, then you need also 30 years data of agric production. But in addition you have to have control of other factors which are not climate and have impacts on agric. Is agric production changing because of climate or due other factors like decline in market price? decline in soil fertility? or due to rural urban migration? changing in life style? change in govt policies like withdrawal of agric subsidies?
2.On climate variability may be easy to trace its impacts on agric production, what you need is to work backward from todays market price and quantities of goods supplied and the historical weather events which took place from last planting season? Did onset of rain delay? earlier than expected? amount of rain in the whole year? any changes in the hydrological years like shift in unit hydro-graph? any extension of the dry spell? after analyzing one year data, keep on comparing the two/three parameters, trends/climate data variability vs(total harvest/prices) in here you can have statistics like correlations that show the relationship between climate parameters and the agric production and market prices.
Thanks a lot Canute for the in-depth clarification on the concepts of "climate change" and "Climate variability" and on how the issue could be appropriately addressed. Most of the studies I have come across so far assess impacts of climate change at the farm level (focusing on impact of "climate change" on yield), and knowing that farmers (mostly from the developing world) usually keep no record of their yields/outputs for the qualified scope (30 years) of the "climate change" concept, I was wondering how well the objectives of such studies are achieved at the end of the day. Your suggestion is well noted. Thanks a lot
This stimulus has to be seen as follows...
1. Impact of climate change on local markets
2. Impact of climate change on agricultural production
3. Impact of climate change on local agricultural production
4. Impact of climate change on agricultural markets
The common variable is "Impact of climate change", this is an odd way fighting with GOD... The focus then should be on the "ACCEPTANCE towards CHANGE".
Shrewdness is the adaptation and reflex to change with the demands of the market then to ...
1. What is possible to produce...
2. Who buys in Volumes....
3. Which gets more returns (ethically)... produce it...
4. world is small, expand your horizons...
Impressive..thanks a lot Krishnan for the fantastic suggestions made....Your points are well noted
- Badges
- Science topic