I am performing mapping of urban up sprawl for 5 cities in Pakistan using advanced geospatial methods with satellite imagery for 25 years (1995-2020) with a 5 year interval. Can someone enlighten me how to mark a reference years for tracking changes and what are the pros and cons?
I have following options.
a). Mark present year as reference and track changes backwards
b). Mark 1995 as reference and track changes onwards.
c). and other option you may suggest?
Dear Muhammad Shafiq
The reference year is usually taken as the starting year of observation because you are observing urban growth. In case the latest year is taken as reference, then you will get urban shrinkages which you need to treat in the opposite way.
I feel one major issue in your study that is the data availability issue in the last decade of the 20th century. A possible solution may be selecting 1990 as a reference and the first time series of ten years (1990-2000).
I hope this answers your question. Good luck!
Dear Muhammad Shafiq,
You can use CA-MARKOV Approach to predict the future urban sprawling surface. For that, you have to generate a future suitable probable surface based on current year using AHP (MCDM) techniques. Thus you can create a base map and a projected map of the same year. In this way you can predict upward trends of urban sprawling. Best wishes with regards.
For your better understanding, please follow the link given below.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0303243411002091
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