I'm still new with the system identification subject but I have a gist of it. I had obtained the experiment data and are using MATLAB's ARMAX function to build ARIMAX model structure. I'm trying the black box approach and I was wondering the combinations of order I should choose. I tried using MATLAB's AIC and tried to find the lowest AIC. However, when I choose the model with the lowest AIC and compared it, it turns out bad and return with a huger error based on the graph.